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Ginger Tipster,
In regards to your question,if 3 3yo’s run 1,2,3 in a 3yo race and then in an open race does that make the 3yo race inferior? Firstly a very hypothetical question,secondly when has that happened in a Group 1 race against older horses?Just because it is a hypothetical question, doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be answered Jollyp.
Your inabilty to answer the question is telling.
Value Is EverythingGinger Tipster,
I have a good understanding of ratings, and Frankel’s Guineas win was given a ridiculously high rating considering the horses time was not exceptional,though i know times dont tell the full story all the time.Your comment is a mile wide of the mark. Considering the good ground and strong headwind on the day, Frankel’s 2000 Guineas time performance WAS truly exceptional. Timeform timefigure which takes in to account both those things seldom if ever beaten. That despite going off too quickly for his own good. Sectional times (to the bushes) suggest he put up a top class sprint time before kept going for another quarter of a mile. Headwinds also tend to favour those held up in strongly run races. There being no hiding place for Frankel, doing it from the front.
Our 3yo’s turn 4 on August 1,so they can hardly be compared with European 3yo’s.
Difference in Southern and Northern Hemisphere has already been taken in to account with those ratings quoted. So they CAN be compared.
On 3yo’s our current crop is probably the best in a long time, you will hear plenty about horses such as Smart Missile, Manawanui,Moment Of Change and Helmet, in most likelihood you may see 1 or 2 of them at Royal Ascot next year.
Do hope we see them at Royal Ascot Jollyp, have no doubt your three year olds will develop in to formidable four year olds next year. The fact your horses don’t tend to reach their peak until 4 should mean 2012 should be a vintage year for you. Also really hope Black Caviar comes over. Our Dream Ahead might be able to give her a race. Idles and badly wanders under pressure / out in front. One of those horses better than he’s able to be "rated". That said, of course Black Caviar is obviously the best sprinter in the World this year.
Yes i do enjoy the fact that most 3yo’s race on over here, unfortunately there, big studs seem to control a lot,after all they call it racing not breeding! Though at the same time i know it is a business for the studs. Prizemoney is not great,i think our system is the best, the TAB ; yes you pay about 15% tax, though you really dont miss it. That money is put back into racing as prizemoney and infrastructure, that is why the prizemoney is so good,therefore racing has strong large quality fields. People will say ‘but i want to get better value with this betting shop’,but when they are sucking the lifeblood out of racing and putting nothing back everyone is worse off. Your racing has had some very poor administration and not a lot of business nous, hopefully they soon get someone who will improve things and get prizemoney levels up where they should be.
Wow, why do Aussie punters allow themselves to be fleeced by your authorities / owners?
They must have a brilliant publicity / propaganda machine over there. For comments like "you dont really miss" the 15% tax. Of course you don’t, have you ever known any different? I’d give up gambling at that rate. Fact is your relatively "poor" punters are shovelling trough loads of cash in to pockets of your comparitively "rich" owners. Hardly fair, so who’s "sucking" who? You might not like our bookies, but they provide an excellent service. Yes, our ways probably favour punters over owners slightly too much; but it’s far fairer than your rich man takes all. On the day of So You Think’s Eclipse one bookie was even betting to an
under
-round, I backed every horse in the race for an
absolutely certain
profit. 15% tax makes it impossible for punters to make a profit.
What over-round do bookies work to over there?
Looking at the quality of racing in Australia and Britain, I don’t see your 15% tax has made any difference. Reason for the improved standard of Australian racing is predominently the influx of British breeding over the years. Even so, so far the only place where your horses possibly outshine ours is at sprinting. Therefore, there is NO evidence to suggest your tax has produced better horses. I know there is/has been a big thing with Betfair in Australia recently. How are they doing?
Value Is EverythingGinger, so you accept that it is ok for the bookmakers in this country to behave as a parasitic leech, sucking the blood out of horseracing and giving barely enough back to keep it alive?
While Timeform rated Frankel’s Guineas an exceptional performance 5 months ago, subsequently the form of the race has been truly horrible. He could do no more than beat what turned up on the day but I think my aunty, who is 74 and has very bad knees could have run into fourth. Of course there is still time for the race to improve as horses like Casamento, Pathfork and Saamidd could yet come out and win races. At this point though, it was the poorest Guineas field since Island Sands won in 1999.
Obviously Frankel is much better than that and I think both his subsequent starts showed improvement on that run.
Casamento HAS come out and won a Group 2 last time out and now heads for the Champion.
Actually difficult to assess this years 2,000 as many haven’t run since. Obviously ROC won the Irish 2,000 nto and Dubawi Sound has run well all year. NAtive Khan was not disgraced in the Derby and Casamento has just returned and won.
Lots of the trainers spoke about Frankel breaking the hearts of their horses that day. Pathfork and Saamid haven’t run since.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Casamento won the Prince d’Orange which is now a group 3, I think it used to be a group 2 but the Foy was upgraded. I accept that a lot of the horses behind Frankel perhaps didnt give their running due to the way he ran but I’m confident that Slim Shadey did. He has run consistently to a low 90’s mark on his 3 runnings over a mile of good/good to firm this season.
Dubawi Gold was a clear 2nd best at Newmarket, he was beaten further in the St James’ Palace which is why I think Frankel improved from Newmarket.
Frankel’s run in the Sussex again showed an improvement and although Canford Cliffs might have finished a bit closer if running his race, he would not have threatened him seriously.
It is just an opinion but Timeform’s assessment of the Guineas needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.
Ginger, so you accept that it is ok for the bookmakers in this country to behave as a parasitic leech, sucking the blood out of horseracing and giving barely enough back to keep it alive?
As I said EF, our ways favour the punter (and bookmaker) a little too much. I’m not for the status quo. Levy needs to be changed. However, unlike many punters I don’t see bookmakers as the bad guy. All aspects of "racing" should get together without name calling, unfortunately they’re more concerned with looking after their own little factions and try to beat up the "bad guy" bookmakers; instead of working with them. Fact is their interests are broadly our (punters) interests. In effect Bookmakers do not pay any money to the Levy, all of it comes indirectly from punters. If bookmakers have to "pay" more towards our sport, then it will all come out of our pockets, either directly or indirectly. Some punters might not notice. They could just work to a greater over-round, not giving us back as much in winnings.
Think you should define "parasitic"?
How much do Bookmakers pay to football in comparison?
How much do they pay Cricket, Rugby or any other sport (bar Greyhounds)?
The percentage of profit bookmakers make on horse racing is going down.
By bookmakers, do you include exchanges? If bookmakers pay more, then exchanges also need to pay more.Unfortunately, now the Tote has been privatised, another potential way of increasing money made for the racing industry is over.
Barry Dennis’s idea (hope I remember it right) of bookies taking a 1% "tax" on every bet, sounds a good one. To go towards prize money. Trouble is we’d need to ban off shore accounts or make them pay the "tax". May be bookmakers could also take a "tax" to go towards rehabilitation of racehorses too.
Racing has to find other ways to supplement money recieved from the betting industry. Racecourses for years have not put enough money back in to prize money. Number of racegoers are on the up despite it costing more to go racing than probably any other country. May be they should be made to put a percentage of entrance fees in to prize money.
If bookmakers and exchanges are the bad guys, then may be "Racing" should buy a small exchange or form one itself? If punters knew profits were all going to "racing" it would get many converts, if commission is small enough it could even drive bookmakers and other exchanges out of business.
May be EF, you’d like to tell us how much more these parasites should pay?
Value Is EverythingOf course it will never happen because the bookmakers lobby is too powerful, but the only way to truly resurrect the racing industry would have been to have a state-controlled monopoly.
The increased competition in the betting sector has created greater employment in that sector, but the greater choice for the punter means the off-course bookmakers have seen their profit margin reduced and therefore racing is the loser.
After all for the majority of betting shop punters, the choice is where am I going to lose my money, so the "value" they offer is transitory.
While Timeform rated Frankel’s Guineas an exceptional performance 5 months ago, subsequently the form of the race has been truly horrible. He could do no more than beat what turned up on the day but I think my aunty, who is 74 and has very bad knees could have run into fourth. Of course there is still time for the race to improve as horses like Casamento, Pathfork and Saamidd could yet come out and win races. At this point though, it was the poorest Guineas field since Island Sands won in 1999.
Obviously Frankel is much better than that and I think both his subsequent starts showed improvement on that run.
I really don’t see how you come to that conclusion. The way Frankel won, not many horses could cope, only four ran to form. Frankel, Dubawi Gold, Native Khan and Slim Shadey. No other horse in the race ran to form, so imo can’t be said to either frank or not frank the form.
Dubawi Gold (beaten 6 lengths by Frankel) on his next start only going down by 3/4 length in the Irish 2000. Most form experts believe Hughes left the horse with too much to do. Like at Newmarket dropped out, but in contrast this time off a slow pace set by winner Roderic O’Connor. The Hannon horse by all accounts should have won. So the English 2000 Guineas form was Frank(el)ed in no uncertain terms.
Next came Ascot, Dubawi Gold ran poorly under different tactics on already (mid June) 5th start of the season. Anyone who believes he ran to form is in cloud cuckoo land. Frankel way below form himself after setting an even greater suicidal pace which almost got him beat. Dubawi Gold almost 14 lengths behind, more than 11 behind Neebras!
You say…
"Dubawi Gold was a clear 2nd best at Newmarket, he was beaten further in the St James’ Palace which is why I think Frankel improved from Newmarket".
You think Frankel improved from Newmarket to Ascot!Despite just a 3/4 length defeat of Zoffany? Yur ‘avin a larf. He was over a stone below Newmarket form. Excelebration, the one to chase Frankel also well below form. Two dropped out the back Zoffany and Neebras the ones to excel.After a break came an encouraging run at a furlong shorter, taking a pull and not getting the clearest of passages in the Hungerford.
Then, won the Group 2 Celebration Mile with a lot to spare, Hughes at his cheekiest. Not the most consistent and style of racing means he needs things to go right. Beaten in France since. Truth is Dubawi Gold is not really up to taking on the best. But the Timeform rating of 122 given for his 2000 Guineas second suggested as much. We knew it wasn’t an exceptional quality Guineas, 122 is a similar standard to many other placed horses in the past. In most years Guineas placed horses need to improve to win a Group 1, particularly open aged races. But remember, Frankel didn’t just beat the others, he pulverised them.
Native Khan ran to 121 in the Guineas. It is easy to think he didn’t "frank(el)" the form in the Derby when "only" 5th. Yet beaten only around 2 1/2 lengths there compared to 6 1/2 by Frankel. That despite each pound being worth a greater distance at 12f than 8. Native Khan ran to a very similar level in both English Classics, before injuring himself in the Irish Derby. Not run since.
Slim Shadey beaten a total of 17 1/2 lengths. Highly tried afterwards and ran as if injured at Royal Ascot. Hardly beaten a horse since. Timeform rating for the Guineas 4th not quite as good as his 2 year old rating in "Racehorses 2010".
Value Is EverythingGINGER TIPSTER,
Redoute’s Choice and Zabeel have been the dominant sires in Australia for years, both bred in the southern hemisphere, so whilst your breeding has helped, it is not the catalyst.Yes Zabeel is by Sir Tristram and bred in NZ i know,however there are countless other stallion homebreds who would breed good horses anywhere.Australia hasn’t been made strong in recent yesrs it always has been.As for the betting aspect,i am happy to put my money on at the TAB as i know that the tax goes straight back into the racing industry thus making racing better and stronger. Your bookies may give you half a point or a point better at times but they put nothing back into the industry and suck the lifeblood out of it,and racing is worse off for it. Betfair seem to being doing quite well at the moment,though the TAB will always be the dominant force here.The argument regarding 3yo southern v northern hemisphere is pure and simple your horses turn 4 on Jan 1 ours on Aug 1, so how can you seriouly compare the maturity that 4 months make as being on level ground.In the hypothetical question regading 3x3yo’s filling the placings in a 3yo G1 and open G1 race,well yes you could rate them just as well,however it doesn’t happen.For instance if my Aunt had testicles would she be my uncle? Hypotheticals
Some people don’t seem to grasp just how good Frankel is now.
I doesn’t matter if he’s 3,4,5 years old or that he’s a "miler".
Frankel has proved himself way,way ahead of everything else, his form has been thoroughly tried and tested. The Prix du Moulin(an open aged G1 contest) is the latest endorsement as to the sheer brilliance of Frankel. The winner Excelebration, was brushed aside with ease by Frankel in the Greenham 4 lengths, he got a little closer at Royal Ascot but we all know Frankel was not given a well judged ride in that contest. Excelebration by the way won his other two starts this year both Group 2’s by a combined 13L. The runner-up in the Moulin 1 1/2L away was Rio De La Plata, he was beaten 7 1/2L in Sussex by Frankel. Third in the Moulin was Rajsaman 1/2L behind, he was 10L adrift of Frankel in the Sussex, this is the same horse who has run the much vaunted Goldikova to a length this season. 4th in the Moulin another 1L back was Dubawi Gold, when held up in the Guineas he was 6L adrift of Frankel, when he was ridden to actually try and win the race at Ascot he was 13 1/2L adrift.
Dubawi Gold’s efforts against Frankel this year illustrate what he does to horses that actually try to take him on. Put purely and simply, he crushes them, he takes them out of their comfort zone. In the St James’s Palace he was rushed through to chase Frankel and paid the price in the home straight. One of the BBC pundits said Richard Hughes said after the race he was flat out at half way and couldn’t go an inch quicker.
Tha Canford Cliff deniers when they say he was lame or injured off colour whatever are also I’m afraid deluded. Hannon said after the race there was nothing physically wrong with the horse before the race, it seems to have transpired a week or so later he had a mystery problem, which Hannon himself said was not something that would stop the horse being trained or racing again, but was retired as a "precaution" against injury. What kind of nonsense is that. It reeks of a Coolmore publicity stunt, to plant that seed of doubt "Ah, but Canford Cliffs was injured". No he wasn’t.
The truth is he was crushed by the pace and power of Frankel. Richard Hughes in a TV interview no more than about 15 minutes after the race had the perfect opportunity to say he felt the horse had injured himself, got a knock in the stalls or whatever, but he didn’t, he said "Nothing has got my fella of the bridle in the middle of the race before, I was on one reign and off the bridle 4 1/2 to 5 furlongs out"
Frankel is a monster, I would say the best horse I’ve ever seen, at least in Europe. I really do hope a strong international field turn up for the QE2 but I have my doubts when they’ll be far easier fights to pick in the Breeders Cup.
Kris Diesis,
Yes it does matter that he is a 3yo when people want to say he is the best,only mature horses who have trained on can claim that. I for one am not bagging the horse,he may well earn the title of ‘the best’.Though experience tells me not to get carried away before he is just as awesome against the mature Group 1 ers.An experienced person will tell you Canford Cliffs wasn’t right you didn’t have to be Einstein to see it.Wear and tear on the joints or sesamoiditis could have been the problem reading between the lines.He shifted out under pressure like a horse may do under those circumstances.
GINGER TIPSTER,
Redoute’s Choice and Zabeel have been the dominant sires in Australia for years, both bred in the southern hemisphere, so whilst your breeding has helped, it is not the catalyst.Yes Zabeel is by Sir Tristram and bred in NZ i know,however there are countless other stallion homebreds who would breed good horses anywhere.Australia hasn’t been made strong in recent yesrs it always has been.
Redoutes Choice is by Danehill, third in the 2000 Guineas and winner of Cork And Orrery (now Jubilee) and Sprint Cup. One of our most prolific sires and sire of sires. He in turn was by Danzig, one of the best American sires. Danzig is by Northern Dancer, "daddy of them all". Redoutes Choice helped no doubt by being inbred 3X4 to Northern Dancer. Danehill also inbred 3×3 to Natalma, dam of Northern Dancer. Even the tail female line has Nijinsky as the grand dam’s sire. With another English Derby winner Sir Ivor in there, it’s hardly an Australian pedigree. Only dams sire Canny Lad could be said to be Australian, and even he a descendent of Star Kingdom and Silly Season.
Zabeel is as you say by the British sire Sir Tristrum who’s sire was Sir Ivor. Dam’s sire Nureyev, disqualified in the 2000 Guineas and again by Northern Dancer. Tail female line positively French. Not one Australian or New Zealand influence in Zabeel’s pedigree.
Of course British, European and American bred / raced horses have proved the catalyst and improved the quality of Australian racing.
No doubt those other "homebreds" you talk about have just as much "Australian" blood in them.
"Always has been" strong.
Value Is EverythingKris Diesis,
Yes it does matter that he is a 3yo when people want to say he is the best,only mature horses who have trained on can claim that. I for one am not bagging the horse,he may well earn the title of ‘the best’.Though experience tells me not to get carried away before he is just as awesome against the mature Group 1 ers.An experienced person will tell you Canford Cliffs wasn’t right you didn’t have to be Einstein to see it.Wear and tear on the joints or sesamoiditis could have been the problem reading between the lines.He shifted out under pressure like a horse may do under those circumstances.
The form book says Frankel is the best, therefore he is the best.
Even taking Canford Cliffs out of the race and comparing Sussex with Queen Anne. On a line through the consistent Rio De La Plata, Frankel comes out way ahead of Canford Cliffs, Goldikova and all. It’s not a question of getting "carried away". Form is there in black and white.
Value Is EverythingGINGER TIPSTER,
Your bookies may give you half a point or a point better at times but they put nothing back into the industry and suck the lifeblood out of it,and racing is worse off for it. Betfair seem to being doing quite well at the moment,though the TAB will always be the dominant force here.
To correct you Jollyp, EF did exaggerate. Our bookmakers do give quite a bit to the Levy (back in to racing). Just not as much as some would wish.
If Aussie punters have to pay 15% tax, I doubt if TAB will remain the dominent force for long.
Any idea what the typical over-round is of say a 10 runner race in Australia? Is the 15% on stakes or profit?
The point extra might not sound much, but taken over a year adds up. Probably the difference between profit and loss. the target often mentioned by professional gamblers over here is to make 10% on stakes.
Value Is EverythingGINGER TIPSTER,
The argument regarding 3yo southern v northern hemisphere is pure and simple your horses turn 4 on Jan 1 ours on Aug 1, so how can you seriouly compare the maturity that 4 months make as being on level ground.In the hypothetical question regading 3x3yo’s filling the placings in a 3yo G1 and open G1 race,well yes you could rate them just as well,however it doesn’t happen.For instance if my Aunt had testicles would she be my uncle? Hypotheticals
They calculate a weight for age scale between 3 and 4 year olds of one hemisphere; so am sure they can make an allowance between 3 year olds of different hemispheres and even between different generations of different hemispheres.
If the hypothetical trio can run to the same mark in both restricted and open aged events, then it does not matter if it’s hypothetical. It means open aged races are not automatically better than restricted races, and that four year olds are not automatically better than three year olds.
Come to that…
If any particular three year old can be better than any particular four year old (whatever their abilitys)… Then the best three year old CAN also be better than the best four year old. Surely you’re not saying ALL four year olds are better than ALL three year olds?Value Is EverythingFrankel was ridden in a way not to his best advantage at Royal Ascot against a better quality field than the Guineas. If he had not improved physically from the Guineas run, those tactics would have seen him get beaten.
In the Guineas everything went Frankel’s way and he won easily, at Ascot, things did not go his way yet he won. A horse’s ability in adversity is a better indication of his unique qualities than when everything is in its favour. However, such qualities are very hard for those obsessed by numbers to appreciate.
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