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Surely you don’t set your watch to whatever a trainer says, Fist – do you?
90% of the time they make comments that the media (or stud farms) want to hear, IMO.
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I don’t think a Tattersalls Group 1 winner could be described as "crap" Zarkava. I think today has confirmed that Sea The Stars won the Derby despite a slow pace not because of it – the colt is suited by a very strong pace, as the stopwatch and the formbook confirms. I have no doubts about this personally.
After watching todays race, do you think the result would have differed with an additional couple of furlongs? I severely doubt it, the horse is different class. When is the last time any horse, never mind a 3yo, was without question (in my opinion) the best around at 8f, 10f and 12f?
I hope he goes to The Arc – the one to beat seems a huge understatement somehow.
I have to agree with you on Casual Conquest he’s far from crap but he’s run no sort of race unless you believe Loch Long who finished in front of him is in the same class, then we really do have problems. That aside it doesn’t alter the fact he was there with every chance and couldn’t go with the front 3. Off Day? perhas yes perhaps no.
As far as Sea the Stars greatness is concerned it depends on how you view it. If he never ran again I would have to admit in once sense he’s one of the best we’ve seen. He’s won Group 1 after Group 1 easily and no one can take that away from him.
However would he have beaten Shergar in the Derby? Would he have lived with Sea Bird II or Mill Reef, Could he have coped with Dancing Brave’s devastating finish. Nick Millard makes a good point on this………Shergar was immensly impressice in the Derby and looked unbeatable that day, Dancing Brace lost his Derby. So in one sense Sea the Stars to date is a great champion and deserves a lot of credit for that but I doubt if he would have won the Derby if Mill Reef was around or many many others.
Only a year ago Zarkava was hailed the best filly seen for 20 years by some of the top judges in Europe. It’s fine to say Sea the Stars has achieved more which he has but would he have coped with her burst of speed in the Arc…..Don’t forget she beat the oder horses and she unlike Sea the Stars never knew what the sharp end of a whip felt like.
Before yesterday I would have said he would not have beaten Zarkava somply because of the way he has won his races in the past. The hardest thing to do in racing is to instantly quicken when something like Zarkava comes out of the clouds at you…….so it comes down to tactics and yesterday Sea the Stars showed that he too can come from behind and swoop……..It would have been some race between them if the both made a move at the 2 marker and I’m staying on the fence on that one.
My one problem with Sea the Stars is what he has beaten to date. I really don’t rate Fame and Glory as anything more than a good horse there to be shot at. I doubt if he could cope with Conduit over 1m4f let alone Sea the Stars……..But the I doubt if Conduit could cope with Sea the Stars if he mantains all his ability in a true run 1m4f race.
The acid test for Sea the Stars is still the Arc and I truly hope he runs and wins even if not from a finacial point of view.
The Arc is like no other race when everything seems to run out of it’s skin. Some great horses have won much better races than yesterday Champion Stakes but were still unable to win the Arc.
We can assume all we want. Things like "Stacelita is not in the same class" "Conduit can’t win as Sea the Stars beat him already" "Vision D’Etat won’t get the trip" "Sariska was a one off" and the next thing you know AOB runs Yeats and beats them all or Youzmain wins and everyone says well he was 2nd twice before.
It’s fine beating Conduit over 1m2f or taking apart boring old Fame and Glory again but the Arc is a different ball game and you can never assume A is better than B. Horses from all walks of life running out of their skin and to beat them all you have to be that bit special and have luck in running. 9 times out of 10 Nijinsky would have won the Arc but he lost and if it can happen to him you can bet your life it could happen to Sea the Stars……who gave Sassafras a chance? His owner and his owners next door neighbour
Great thing is Sea the Stars has nothing to lose now. If he did run and lost people will say he was over the top and who could argue. I hope and think Oxx will run him if only for the sport of it as he must have topped out in shed value already, after that sparkling performace yesterday and that won’t change much.
It doesn’t look a great Arc but 9 times out of 10 it never does until they turn for home.
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Surely you don’t set your watch to whatever a trainer says, Fist – do you?
90% of the time they make comments that the media (or stud farms) want to hear, IMO.
Do you set your watch to what the form book says.
Reading and interpreting form is a never ending learning process and invariably what trainers say can have an immense bearing on what form is actually worth. Your question is bordeing on the rediculous as there are trainers and there are trainers
Staying with SMS take Harbinger for example when he ran in the Gordon Stakes he finished over 22 lengths behind the runner up Mastery. Harbinger went through every test known to find out what was wrong……His next race is likeley to be the Cumberland Lodge Stakes at Ascot.
Now if SMS told you the horse banged himself coming out of the stalls and his hip joint was swollen like a ballon when the got home home which horse would you back at Ascot…….would you back Mastery becausethe form book says he’s 22 lengths better or would you accept SMS word and consider back Harbinger or would you blindly go by the form book and back Mastery?
No trainer on earth knows it all but some are excellent judges and SMS is one of the best on the planet and well worth listening to………..if you and the gentleman who started this idiotic question can’t see that then good luck to you….you will need it
Fist Conduit has never in his career run to a mark any higher than what he ran to in the King George or the Eclipse. I know you’re not keen on ratings but they do give you a good indication. What any trainer says always should be taken with a pinch of salt even Sir Michael Stoute. It may be that Conduit can improve further still but if he does it will only be by a few pounds.
As far as Sea The Stars is concerned any criticism now is surely just denial, what more can the horse do? It doesn’t matter how a race is run he still wins and the fact that he doesn’t put ten lengths between himself and the rest probably helps him as he always has something in reserve. The nearest he’s come to defeat was at York and that was probably because Kinane took a pull as the horse was going so well and somewhat switched him off at the wrong time. Even then he still managed to win his versatility is incredible.
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I do try and to look beyond ratings/marks and take the type of horse and type of race into considration. I happen to think SMS was spot on when he said Conduit will be a better horse in the Autumn. It follows suit with the horses previous profile and the man is a genius in improving horses just at the right time.
The Arc is tailormade for Conduit as he loves a fast pace where stamina and finishing speed often win the day. The horse has bundles of both at the trip and whatever beats him wins IMO.
The Eclipse doesn’t mean a thing it was over a trip short of Conduits best
I have severe doubts that Conduit can beat him in the Arc but like everyone I am getting now caught up in the hype. The truth is he’s the top 4 year old in Europe and the right place to make judgements will be on a level playing field in France. I just hope it happens and no excuses are made by anyone afterwards.
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Ratings differ according to who is providing them, and even the best are usually nothing more than a guide.
Conduit ran the race of his life in the Breeders Cup, around a track and on a surface not at all designed to his strengths, and beat world class horses in doing so. After that race, SMS told us there was better to come this season (entirely credible, given he has trained many to do similar) and, thus far, Conduit has yet to show he is even as good as last year, let alone manifest the promised improvement.
However, as his owners stated quite early in the season, his main targets have always been the Arc and another BC, and no doubt he has been trained accordingly.
Ignore what SMS says, and what he has done many times in the past, at your own peril.hope red rock canyon will set the same kind of pace that he set in the breeders cup to help conduit lol
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Did anyone notice Grand Ducal in the race? He was shot out of the stalls like it was a 6f sprint and at first I thought he was going to make the running. His jockey settled him in 4th but no sooner had he done that he was rowing away like he was riding a fiish in the Epson Derby.
The horse looked like he was absolutely hating the ground but more likely he’s dog lazy. He took a bit of a bump from Sea the Stars just before he home turn which cost him length or so….while well beaten at time when Casual Conquest ranged up beside him he found plenty and actually quickened away from him.
How on earth Johnny Murtagh got up to win on him at the Curragh is beyond me. He downed tools on him 2 1/2 furlongs out and you could have got 1000/1 in running with 1/2 a furlong to go but somehow he got up.
He’s ran really well yesterday all things considered. Could he be another star in the making over a longer trip?Who would seriously back against Sea The Stars winning the Arc were he to take his chance ?
The horse has already beaten the best around, apart from the much vaunted french filly, Stacelita. There again, I shouldn’t think she would present much of a problem to Ireland’s finest.
The last ( and only ) horse to win both the English 2,000 Guineas and Arc was Dancing Brave. Sea The Stars would create something very new were he to win the Paris showdown; becomining the only horse ever to have completed the English 2,000 Guineas, Derby and Arc treble.
If he achieved this, then he would seal his claim to be rightly regard among the top five European trained horses of all time, in my opinion.
It’s pointless arguing, would he have beaten such and such from the past ? We simply cannot know. It’s all guesswork and fanciful opinion.
Fist cited Shergar for example – a horse who beat a poor bunch of three year olds and recorded a very slow Derby time – so, for my penny’s worth, even though I cannot know for certain, Sea The Stars would have defeated the Michael Stoute trained horse – over any distance.
The best horse does not always win the Arc. A search through past winners’ previous achievements proves this. Peintre Celebre recorded a time of 2.24 on very fast ground – much faster than Ribot or Sea Bird II – and two and three seconds faster than Dancing Brave and Mill Reef, but "expert" concensus would have it that the 1994 Arc winner was inferior to those other Arc winning greats.
But this is what makes sport so intriguing and interesting – the arguments and debates which inevitably follow over which horse was better; which was the better football team, golfer, racing driver, tennis player etc. We can ) and will ) argue ’til the cows come home, but we still won’t agree – and long may it continue.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
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Excellent post mate and all very true. I’ve never bought into the times theory myself as much depends on how races are run or should I say set up.
AOB has now set up 4 races that Sea the Stars has run in. The Eclipse where I thouht the pace wasn’t that strong the Derby where it was a snails pace and the last two were set up like they were going for the World Record.
Everytime Sea the Stars has coped and came out on top which speaks volumes for his ability to adapt. It’s no surprise the times were as fast as they were but much of that is down to the fact that Sea the Stars was able to go with it and quicken. That takes incredible ability to do that but it also means he is a very fast horse at that trip. Way too often we have seen great horses run over a longer trip and flop.
The only unanswered question is can he do the same over 1m4f. The Derby gave us no positive idea if he can do the same as he did yesterday. over an extended trip.
Make no mistake AOB will make sure the Arc is run in similar fashion to yesterdays race as that is the only door left open to him if he wants to lower the horses colours.
Personally I think Oxx should run the horse and AOB is pi$$in against the wind, but it won’t stop the man from trying.
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T’ be sure T’ Be sure I tink you could be right
Sea the Stars performed like only the Great horses can on ground that was not to his liking! He proved me wrong and is defineately deserving of plaudits of greatness,if he is truly Dancing Brave class he has to win the Arc! No other race will give him the credit of a true Great! IMO
Sea the Stars performed like only the Great horses can on ground that was not to his liking! He proved me wrong and is defineately deserving of plaudits of greatness,if he is truly Dancing Brave class he has to win the Arc! No other race will give him the credit of a true Great! IMO
yes, unless he wins the arc he’ll be seen as rubbish, and quite rightly so
There is way too much obsession with the Arc. The Arc doesn’t make a great horse.
If Sea The Stars doesn’t run in the Arc it is not going to damage his reputation one bit.
It was brilliant to be there yesterday, the reception he got put the hairs on end.
If this horse lines up for the Arc, I honestly can’t see what could beat him, only a long hard season.
He’s beaten the Ballydoyle brigade many a time, I cannot envisage Conduit reversing Eclipse form even with the extra 2 furlongs. I think Stacelita has been over-rated.
The only bit of value left in the Arc market is Vision D’Etat at 12/1. I doubt he’ll win it but he’s sure to run his race and has great place prospects.
As for the "all-time great" debate, well, I am too young to comment really but I did have to appreciate yesterday as Sea The Stars did a lap of honour around the parade ring that this could be the best horse I ever see.
A true champion.
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