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As most will know, I study Timeform Race Passes with the occasional visit to the free Racing Post site.
Studying the race and working out which horse/s I believe are available at better odds than what I consider their fair chance. What rating I think each horse is capable of/likely to run to given conditions (incl. pace in the race and my own trainer in form ratings). Betting the race rather than the horse.Be interested in how all you TRFers pick yours.
Any other Timeform subscribers out there?Value Is EverythingI find the little finger usually does the trick but for anything trickier I’ll thumb through the paper until the matter is resolved. I wouldn’t subscribe to Timeform, pages are too glossy
My first point of call is always trainer form in the post Ginge.
I look to see which trainers have a decent success percentage and are showing a profit or close to it and then study the form of said trainers horses at the course and go from there.
It works sometimes not always obviously or else I would be sat on a sunkissed beach somewhere!!At the big meetings I place quite a lot of importance on trends (draw, weights and ratings etc.) and I also keep an eye on trainers in form in the last fourteen days and not just winners. I keep tabs on their places as well.
RacingPost for me.
The RTRs as bad as sometimes they are, usually give me a good first glance of the past races of a horse. Of those horses that have an interesting profile I study the form closer. I’m usually betting at horses with odds bigger than 4/1.
Timeform was good to me in the past as well.
form book,hour upon hour of race watching, going conditions, make sure there is pace in the race( other things a take into consideration but to many and some to trival to list). Make my choice and if I am happy with price I will back my opinion. If the price is to short(in what I believe it should be) I leave the race alone. I only back in pattern races and class 2 and above handicaps/condition events
Was a big user of Timeform 70s/80s/90s now I believe it is a watered down version. Only my opinion its not what it was, although do read it from time to time on their website. All I buy now is the last edition of the Black Book, too get me through the winter months
As most people already know, it is speed figures for me.
2018 Flat turf: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Mp22BGgjGZ26nolq0qp91FIs_VWnW_mA
From Ist Sept:
AW2018_2019: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1DDkTSTVlFh3qbylKq8bYYx7ZycOZNoQ8NH2018_2019: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1r1FcjEUEFRXIlojKmtcyGH6NIv9nbBdr
Mike.
Same as nwalton basically, form and race watching for unlucky horses etc. are the paramount factors. Pace bias is something i look into quite a bit on the flat, don’t use it much on the jumps.
Will bet on the odd class 3 and maiden race but very rarely these days, C2 and up for me also.
Generally use a mix of the ATR app as it’s user friendly for looking at form, RUK/ATR for video replays and then RP for the trainer form. ATR website also does pacemaps for the weekend racing which are handy and i use those at times too.
I use a mixture of Racing Post Ultimate, Geegeez and ATR.
Geegeez, i only use very rarely as i think having both RP and GGz is expensive.
ATR has some useful info on it, however, it doesn’t do everything. RP my most used site.
I won’t go into detail on how i pick my selections, as it differs from race types. I price them up, use videos, and also, trust that i know about quite a lot of the horses in training nowadays to give me a good overall feel of each race.
Don’t tend to touch 2yo races, or bumpers that often.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Go through the runners. Pick the ones I would like to see win. Go through the form of these runners, especially ground and course form and take into account trainer form. Go through the other runners’ form. Convince myself that the one I’d first thought of has the best chance of winning, even though this may not be the case. Back this horse and usually see it lose
I use the same “Big dose of cognitive bias” system as you, homer. With similar results
*Never back below Class 4 races unless it’s a 2yo maiden and I’m at the races to see them in the paddock.
*Always look to see if my horse has dropped in class or has been put up in class from his last race.
*Look at the form of other horses and the ground conditions in the race that my choice has been entered for, then look at the last race that they ran on Sporting Life reruns to get an idea of knee action etc and if he/she was denied a clear run or ran too lit up and spoilt their chance in that particular race.
*Take into account horses that perform well at certain meetings, trainer form and jockey bookings but don’t go for any hype regarding articles on the RP website and never ever follow paper tipsters, much prefer to pick my own losers.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Only bet in low grade Non handicap races / meetings class 4 to 6.
If tomorrow by some quirk you had Chelt Fest, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood, Cartmel, Newton Abbot, Wolverhampton and Redcar I would ignore the first 3 and concentrate on the last 4.
Flat : Maidens, novices, sellers & occasional Cl3 or 4 conditions.
NH. Nov Hdls, Mdn Hdls, Sell Hdls, Nov Chases, Beg Chases, Hunters.
Ignore all handicaps (too many of them) however I rarely back one that hasn’t run in one.
Stick to smallish fields, say max of about 12.
Be wary of penalty carriers esp fillies and mares. Read race conditions and look out for claimer ridden horses. Quick check on breeding – no point in backing a 7 or 8 fur bred horse in a jump race at Leic or Towc on soft.
Don’t bet under 5/1 and aim for 17% strike rate. 100 point bank ( estimate longest losing run, double it and double it again). Level stakes. Win or each way, juries out on that one. Avoid multiples.
Don’t be scared of taking on odds on shots esp penalized ones.
I prefer my selection to drift in the betting rather than to contract too dramatically. If it’s 4/1 overnight and goes to 13/2 next day so what? If you’ve done your homework why worry about what other punters think. Ignore tipsters, correspondents comments and don’t be taken in too much by trainer form. Trainers overall win % age in the long run more important.
Losing runs are tough but with a 100 points bank you can ride it out. If you’re going through a purple patch be wary, you tend to become over confident and take chances.
Record all bets on spread sheet.That’s interesting Dahlia, we’re similar in outlook in many areas. Some caveats: I will bet in handicaps if they look the right ‘shape’ to me and I also bet far too enthusiastically in NH Flat races. I never set ‘targets’ for odds and strike-rate and I pretty much ignore breeding & trainers.
Mike
One thing I do like to look at nowadays is course form. In the past I have not really ignored this form but talked myself out of winners due to the recent form of a horse. One that went in for me yesterday was Highland Acclaim who had won 4 at Epsom before yesterday. His SP of 12/1 rather surprised me.
Horses running well in the same race in consecutive years, happens frequently but is underestimated by bookies I feel. Course, distance and time of year are all identical, going is often similar. Thus I always pay close attention to the previous years winner if applicable.
Generally speaking it’s all about spotting early value for me, either ante-post or early shows. Focusing on a handful of races a week rather than trying to ‘bet the card’ every day. Obviously form study comes into it and just concentrating on the higher class of races means alot of it comes from memory as I watch them all, if not live then whenever I can find the time, but watching the odd race back too as a reminder.
All the usual variants are considered, trainer form, jockey, going etc. but gut feeling still comes into it. Does anyone occasionally have a magic moment and look at a card and just ‘know’ whose going to win?! Not very often but does happen from time to time.
I tend to look towards the head of the market, I think some people struggle to see the value in short prices, for instance if a horse has an estimated 50% chance of winning 6/4 is a stonking bet, not sure too many players can see the value in that bet. I’d back myself (being a gambling man!) to pick more even money shots to win than lose. If I can nail 6 from 10 at Evens, it’s profit time.
Does anyone occasionally have a magic moment and look at a card and just ‘know’ whose going to win?! Not very often but does happen from time to time.
Only in hindsight, a prime example been Burnt Sugar at Ascot earlier this year. This was a 27 runner race so you can hardly be confident and “know” who’s going to win. I’d backed him the time before in the Bunbury Cup where he’d been a bit of a market mover and he won with a bit in hand despite only winning half a length.
This day he’d only been put up a pound yet noticed he was 16s. I was looking for reasons why he was so big and couldn’t really see any. On the ITV racing in the afternoon no real mention of him by the pundits and I think the price went out to 25s before coming back into 20s. Again I wondered what mistake I’d made in backing this horse. He duly went in, it seemed rather cosily again.
Francesca admitted after the race that the winner in hindsight seemed obvious despite not been picked up by any of the pundits and that no-one really expected it as connections only target one big handicap a season and if win the horse is then too high in the handicap to claim another. Yes Francesca but he’d only gone up a pound.
This was definitely the most confident I’d ever been about a 20/1 shot and despite the big field but still had big doubts because I’d thought I’d missed something due to its price.
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