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HRE put up a convincing performance to win the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere today, beating several horses that were fancied for next years Guineas and some potential improvers by 2l. Having being nicely positioned, even if perhaps racing lazily, HRE quickened up nicely when a gap between horses appeared to win what looked a decent contest convincingly. His odds inevitably shortened for the Guineas and he could be on course for a rematch with Guineas favourite Teofilo.
Now I was one of the people that thought HRE had no improvement left and lacked scope to be a serious candidate for the Guineas next year. However he was thoroughly convincing today and I am convinced it was a career best performance. Interesting to read that the horse had been "put off the schedule a little." before the Railway Stakes as he had been due to race in France before the weather intervened. The question is who do people think will win HRE vs Teofilo II – The rematch? If HRE continues to improve as his trainer says he will then he must surely now be on a par with Teofilo’s performance last time? However given that Teofilo is a (very) big, scopey horse can Teofilo be expected to uphold the form? How would you price up the market for the Dewhurst?
Teofilo is going to have to be in top form but I think Teofilo can beat HRE in the Dewhurst and he must surely go into winter as a very short priced favourite for the Guineas if he does. I can also see Strategic Prince playing a part though he is another that will have to improve.
So in short then who wins the Dewhurst? HRE or Teofilo?
Indeed there is now a difference of opinion between bookies over favouritism for the 2000
For what its worth I think Holy Roman Emperors performance today was his best. I have him now on an equal rating with Teofilo.
That said 2000 Guineas extra furlong I’d be tempted to favour Teofilo a big horse with possibly more scope.
The Dewhurst? Dunno.
i think the ground will play a major part for hre he seems to want good proper ground ,the ground for the national stakes was good/soft , it seems unlikely that he is going to get good ground for the dewhurst in 2 weeks
(Edited by newyork at 8:20 pm on Oct. 1, 2006)
hre is a compact 2yr but the same thing has been said about lots of horse who went on to improve at 3 the same thing was said about the rock and look what he went on to achieve
What is all this about ‘he will for the guineas (get good ground)’?
Do you know the weather forecast already aragorn? For god’s sake, wasn’t the arc always meant to be run on soft ground?
With a pacemaker, I could see HRE turning the tables in the Dewhurst – as for the Guineas, I’m just not sure.
The trends say that the big 3 always win the Guineas – Stoute, Godolphin and O’Brien.
Stoute has got no major hopes for next year. I refuse to back Godolphin horses, not to mention they are going to have almost no 2yos running this year. Unless one of them is another Lammtarra, I’m completely writing them out of the Classic scene.
Which leaves O’Brien. Thinking about his other runners, I also think Eagle Mountain and Trinity College are live chances. The former must be the most overpriced horse in the Guineas market – he got beat a nose by Teofilo. 20 yards more, EM would have won. The 2000 Gns is over an extra furlong.
Have to agree trackside, I think HRE seems more of a sprinter.
I’ve been saying it for a while and I stand by it that Teofilo is different gravy when it comes to this year’s juveniles. In my opinion Holy Roman Emperor only had to reproduce his second to Teofilo and his winning effort in the Phoenix to take the Criterium.
It could be argued that Teofilo got first run in a steadily run race in the National Stakes and whilst that is true to an extent, Holy Roman Emperor was no nearer Teofilo at the line than he was over 1f out. Bolger has a very exciting winter to look forward to at the minute.
Interestingly I would also go with the opinion that Finsceal Beo has achieved a higher level of form that Sander Camillo, whilst I think that is probably as good as she is and that Sander Camillo is almost certainly capable of better, I’m surprised that she’s twice the price of Sander Camillo for the Guineas.
jackane – Surely time has shown that suggesting ‘Stoute has got no major hopes for next year’ in October is folly. Any number of his top three year olds have shown little (or barely been seen) in their juvenile campaigns.
HRE’s performance on Sunday was still 2 lengths behind Teofilo’s Futurity win according to my calcs
I’d be more inclined to believe Eagle Mountain would trouble Teofilio again more, particularly over a stiff 7f or a mile
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Quote: from newyork on 8:19 pm on Oct. 1, 2006[br]i think the ground will play a major part for hre he seems to want good proper ground ,the ground for the national stakes was good/soft , it seems unlikely that he is going to get good ground for the dewhurst in 2 weeks
(Edited by newyork at 8:20 pm on Oct. 1, 2006)<br>
The RP time-based ground was actually g/f for the Natiional Stakes.<br>Imo, HRE didn’t have to improve to win on Sunday, and it is fanciful to believe that he will have improved enough to reverse placings with Teofilo, apart from the assumption that the latter will have stood still in the meanwhile.
The trends say that the big 3 always win the Guineas – Stoute, Godolphin and O’Brien.
Thing about trends Jackane is that they have to have logic
Unless these three trainers are sneaking their horses in carrying 5lb less or something there is no logical reason why they have any more chance of winning the guineas than any other trainer with a talented runner
You have to go back a fair way as well to find the last time that Godolphin won the 2000 Guineas. Seven years since Island Sands did the business for them.
Jack, i’m only quoting a trend like you mate, the last couple of 2000 guineas have been run on faster ground, hence my comment.. You can’t accuse me of being sweeping when you’ve failed to mention that the two trainers with the strongest guineas hands at the moment are Bolger and Noseda.. (other trainers are capable of winning the guineas!)
I think Eagle Mountain is more likely to win the derby than the guineas and I have to agree that I didn’t think HRE had to improve at Longchamp to win… Teofilo is still the stand out colt.
Was very impressed with Finsceal Beo, but anyone else think Miss Beatrix is an improving filly who will be in with a shout in the guineas?
I really don’t rate Miss Beatrix’s Classic prospects all that highly. Firstly I think there’s a doubt about a mile suiting her as well as what shorter does and her form looks a long way below what the best jevenile fillies have done this year. A short-head beating of Silca Chiave leaves her with something to find with the likes of Indian Ink never mind the likes of Sander camillo and Finsceal Beo.
DJ, couple of points; she beat subsequent G1 winner Simply Perfect in that race (The moyglare was run on good to firm, Silca Chiave may not have handled the softer ground against Indian Ink and simply perfect obviously needs the distance and a bit of cut) She also gave Finsceal Beo a good beating in the sales race and wasn’t far behind HRE either in the railway.
Not saying she should be favourite but she doesn’t seem to get a great deal of mention and she’s been running against colts a lot and is improving steadily…. I don’t think distance is a problem if the ground is on the good side. If it was soft i’d take Simply perfect to reverse the form over a mile.
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