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At last racing is beginning in earnest.
A cracking novice chase and then a novice hurdle with 2 potential Cheltenham possibles come next March in Solent and Alfie Flits.
I wonder what Grayscolumn makes of Solent tomorrow having visited his excellent blog and then read his piece about Solent.
The 3m1f Novice Chase is indeed a decent little event and would not look out of place at Wetherby or Haydock.
Thats Rythmn beat Old Benny at Aintree last October and ran a good race at Haydock in May over 2m4f, the extra trip will suit and could even become an Eider Horse and has a great chance of winning.
According to Pete is fit from the flat and respected while Belon Gale comed from the Pointing World and GC will know more about him.
In the 2m Novice Hurdle, Alfie Flitts is a winner of the Aintree Bumper and has good flat form and ran a cracker on Heavy at Ayr in the Doonside Cup and looked like he would come on a ton from the race
Solent won well enough at Bangor but gives weight away and this is tougher.
The 2m novice hurdle looks a cracker. Swinbank always said Alfie was too good to go jumping, I suspect he’s only over timber because he’s lost his way on the Flat. Think the Ayr form is worth little and he looks too short to me. Not convinced Solent’s Bangor form is very solid, and he’s shown very little on the Flat this year. It’s a pity the McCain yard aren’t going a bit better than they are as their representative sets a very stiff standard to be aiming at for this time of year.
D.J.
I agree with you about Alfie Flits but if you have not already done so have a look at Grayscolumn blog and his bit about Solent. Excellent
Great little hurdle race
I would have Alfie Flitts as a lay .
Solent looks a cracking hurdler for the season coming ,i can also see the top one Khachaturian running a good race.
Yes the real racing is slowly getting going!!!!
Thanks no idea, I hadn’t seen it and I hope graysons doesn’t mind me quoting from it but I had to laugh at the quote It was a performance that the harder-bitten analyst may still want to crab to a degree. It is hard to argue against the claims that Solent probably beat close to nothing in regards to what I said. Anybody that has read the majority of my near 5000 postings would agree the description used could sum me up pretty well.
There’s the off gem on the betfair forum and in the ante-post section there are a few threads about solent, one of the main contributors to them a poster named ‘pmt’ is one of the owners of the horse. According to one of his posts the horse strained a ligament before he went hirdling last winter.
In the 3:25 Rowlands Chartered Accountants Novices’ Hurdle, Howard Johnson introduces the Andrea & Graham Wylie owned, On Raglan Road, an Irish Points and Punchestown bumper winner, on his only starts. Purchased for £320,000.His dam is a half-sister to Therealbandit and The Bajan Bandit. He will start odds on but it’ll be very interesting to see him particularly since they’ve paid such a high price for him. The goings on the softer side of good, and should be superb jumping ground for what promises to be a great days jumping at Hexham tomorrow.
Thanks no idea, I hadn’t seen it and I hope graysons doesn’t mind me quoting from it but I had to laugh at the quote
It was a performance that the harder-bitten analyst may still want to crab to a degree. It is hard to argue against the claims that Solent probably beat close to nothing
in regards to what I said. Anybody that has read the majority of my near 5000 postings would agree the description used could sum me up pretty well.
I couldn’t possibly comment, DJ!
From a point of professional integrity, having banged on about his real or anticipated hurdling credentials on and off for a year now, I’d be delighted to see Solent defy a penalty. However, as I mentioned in in the blog entry (and cheers for the endorsement, No Idea – I just like to write, me
), you couldn’t call the form of that Bangor debut bombproof, however visually striking it was.Moreover, whilst nothing took him on for the lead that day, there would have to be a risk that Khachaturian will do just that tomorrow, having led or shared the lead in at least seven of his last 10 starts over timber. I’d not rule out the chance of a destructive battle ensuing for the lead, to the ultimate detriment of both these horses and to the benefit of a rival in Alfie Flits who doesn’t have to get a sight of the lead early on.
I’d also love to know, if anyone else does, what prompted Solent’s withdrawal from that decent Market Rasen contest last Saturday. Going concerns would be valid up to a point if they didn’t want him to let himself down (in both senses) on a fast surface, although in truth his form on the level on good to firm was none too shabby. If, however, there was any sense on connections’ part of trying to dodge some of the good horses too early in the season, I’m afraid they might not have achieved this entirely here.
In fact, Jimmy Lambe’s runner Sharevar may emerge as the biggest threat of the three penalised runners, for all that he has 5lb to find with Solent and 19lb with Khachaturian on adjusted RPRs. He appears to need some driving, but he’s had that in spades on both occasions McCoy (6-19 for Lambe) has partnered him and he has responded well enough to win each time.
Interestingly, the first of those two wins was in a course and distance bumper in June, and Jimmy Lambe’s five-year strike at Hexham of 6-33 improves to 5-24 if one counts his hurdles runners only. I don’t tend to follow Lambe blindly at some courses (such as Perth, where he’s a little bit guilty of bringing over a boatload of practically any old rubbish to get it a run), but the Yarridge Heights course is certainly one where I give all his runners a second look. And sometimes a third.
The protracted good, good to soft is within his compass, having done okay on good to yielding two runs ago, but I’d be happier still if Hexham is being battered by a drying wind tomorow morning (not so battering, of course, that they call everything off with seconds to go before the opener as at the last meeting, though…)
I think this is one I’ll be (p)laying on after a couple of furlongs or so. If Solent and Khachaturian get into a scrap early on, and Alfie Flits doesn’t take too keen a grip (as he is sometimes wont to do), then I’ll take the Swinbank gelding to emerge on top. Irrespective of the early shape of the race, with only one of the top three needing to put in a below-par performance and nothing interesting me among the rags, I think Sharever represents a pretty attractive each-way proposition at the tissue price of 10-1.
HTH,
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Thats Rythmn beat Old Benny at Aintree last October and ran a good race at Haydock in May over 2m4f, the extra trip will suit and could even become an Eider Horse and has a great chance of winning.
You’d love the Todhunter yard to be showing more positive signs ahead of his reappearance, though, wouldn’t you? Returns of 0-59 over both codes since the start of April and 2-115 for the entire calendar year make for depressing reading.
Equally, I couldn’t really endorse Alistair Whitehouse-Jones’ Spotlight tipping of stablemate Nevsky Bridge in the opening selling hurdle, fly weight or not, given how quickly that one folded in an identical contest at Perth last week.
Belon Gale comed from the Pointing World and GC will know more about him.
The win came in a confined maiden point at Tallow, Ireland in February. He set sail for home there six fences out and kept on well to beat Ballycastle King by 2l.
The plus points of that form are that it showed a degree of competency around a left-hand track and on going with a bit of dig (it was officially yielding there). I have a few reservations, though, in particular;
– Ballycastle King himself does the form few favours, being nought from eight in Irish points now (this was defeat number seven). The 10l third home, Tallow Bride, did win her final pointing start of the season at Athlacca, but this was her own 11th career start; and whilst the fourth Who’s Deal did eventually mop up a late-season hat-trick, essentially all the other beaten horses in that contest were either fully exposed or terminal losers.
– Belon Gale was trained by Grand National-winning handler Jimmy Mangan for his wife, but was offloaded by them after this solitary run. What do we make of the fact that they didn’t see enough about him to keep him for running under Rules in Ireland themselves?
– the Howard Johnson string’s return of three wins and two podiums from 21 over the jumps since its return to action this last fortnight is probably a bit better than the man himself expected, if we take his word for it that his horses are mostly a month away from hitting top form (certainly Santa’s Son should win a nice handicap this term if progressing from last Saturday’s encouraging reappearance). I’m just not as confident of Belon Gale being able to do himself justice first time up as I’d be, for example, if he were a Twiston-Davies inmate.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Maybe it’s just me, but I’ve been taking a rather jaundiced view of anything from the Johnson/Wylie string with a £xxx,xxx tag against it. While they have taken charge of some decent jumpers for the money, they have also taken in some pretty ordinary performers. I suppose there is a chance the view is clouded by the dismal performances of Prince Car in recent times.
As is his way, Jeremy has covered a fair few angles for this afternoon’s meeting. As far as the future is concerned the Novices’ Chase is the most interesting event. Unless I’ve missed something in the psots above Charlie Crab seems to be another interesting contender. He showed ability over hurdles and may well progress as a chaser. But in that perverse way of some of us, I’m looking forward to the handicap chases. What a wonderful event full of in-form chasers the 5.05 looks!
Stuck in the office today regrettably, but I’ll be down at Hexham for a first ever visit next Saturday.
As far as the future is concerned the Novices’ Chase is the most interesting event. Unless I’ve missed something in the psots above Charlie Crab seems to be another interesting contender. He showed ability over hurdles and may well progress as a chaser.
Doh! I spent so long trashing Belon Gale last night that I forgot to put something up to back in the race, and for me, too, Charlie Crab would be that something.
Tom Tate had long since made noises that anything Charlie Crab achieved over hurdles would strictly count as a bonus ahead of his proper vocation – he has variously described the Tamure gelding as "old fashioned" and "totally ignorant", and merely regarded his often awkward hurdling technique as symptomatic of that.
You’d fancy, then, that today is where it starts to happen for real with him, and certainly the expectation from connections seems to be that he’ll pick his feet up a bit better over fences (not that Hexham’s obstacles present the stiffest test in that regard, though).
He hails from a pretty likeable family, all in all, with the dam a half-sister to quality chaser By The Way and all six of her offspring to have raced under Rules winners over at least 2m4f and in some cases over 3m. Stable form offers some encouragement also, as 14 Tom Tate runners in the last fortnight have garnered two wins and eight podiums.
The one slight worry I’d have is if he finds himself in the lead early on, as he looked green out in front in a Doncaster bumper last December and then tried to bury the rider at the first when in front on his Sedgefield hurdling debut next time out. There are quirks there, for certain.
Fortunately, though, Charming Knight and Pendle Forest can be fairly free-running sorts, and That’s Rhythm tried to make all last time, so maybe at least one of these could oblige.
Jeremy
(graysonscolumn)Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I’m looking forward to the handicap chases. What a wonderful event full of in-form chasers the 5.05 looks!
.Swerve, swerve
Of the debutants I’ll be paying attention to I’m Gunner Be Fine off a lowly 67 in the 5.05
The Gunner B production line will soon grind to a halt
But in that perverse way of some of us, I’m looking forward to the handicap chases. What a wonderful event full of in-form chasers the 5.05 looks!
My kinda contest as well, though I’ve no time left to unpick it today, alas. What’s going on, though – a low-grade Hexham handicap chase with fewer than 20 runners?!?
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
GC
I see you’re now working for Timeform Radio
Have you moved flat to Halifax perchance
GC
I see you’re now working for Timeform Radio
Have you moved flat to Halifax perchance
Heh-heh, ‘fraid not, Drone! Heaven knows Halifax would be cheaper than Hertfordshire, as well as being more or less "back home" for me. Timeform Radio Sponsored By Betfair is essentially Betfair Radio rebranded and souped up (as of October 1st), and is still based in Hammersmith.
As for today so far, it looks as if Charlie Crab still has a bit to learn about jumping fences, and those ignorant traits that Tom Tate had alluded to haven’t quite been arrested by the switch to the larger obstacles.
Still, at least we managed to get Nevksy Bridge successfully laid in the opener.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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