- This topic has 45 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Quote: from Aragorn on 10:41 am on Nov. 22, 2006[br]Turpin Green prefers some cut looking at his record and I think is crying out for a trip. Obviously the form has been franked by Exotic Dancer but it’s his second behind star de mohaison giving him weight that makes me think he stands a good chance. The flatter tracks seem to suit. <br>
No matter how many times the 3 horses come out of theat Graduation Chase and win, it won’t be a franking of the form as the race was a complete face. Nothing wanted to make the running so they stood still for over 30 secs, then after about 6f they slowed right down to a walk. Going at that pace mwant there was less pressure of Turpin Green’s jumping. He needs to brush up in that regard for me and I couldn’t be interested at 6/1.
By far the best handicapped horse in the race id Distant Thunder. Not just one piece of form, but on four or five. Take a look at his novice form with Cornish Rebel, he’s 20 odd lbs better off for a four length beating. He is also able to race off the same mark as when beaten by Bob Bob Bobbin at Bangor last time. That pair pulled 30 lengths clear and the third has since run with credit in the Becher Chase. One downside is he didn’t find as much as looked likely at bangor, a trait that appears quite freqently in his form but he has to be backed at around 12/1.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 11:51 am on Nov. 22, 2006[br]
Going at that pace mwant there was less pressure of Turpin Green’s jumping. He needs to brush up in that regard for me and I couldn’t be interested at 6/1.
<br>Agree with yer DJ
<br>Hopegully  Tom’s poor form and Turpin Greens jumping will see layers wanting to get him, forcing a drift
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:08 pm on Nov. 22, 2006)
In fact, an in running bet may be a better ploy with TG, he’s not really a prominent runner and there have been some daft in running prices being offered of late
Mmm i’m dubious about Cornish Rebel (always seems to be outpaced to me) and to be honest while distant thunder may run into a place, this race won’t be won without a fight and he doesn’t look like a fighter to me.. Turpin Green finished 2 lengths behind Star de mohaison giving 7lbs and that horse would have been favourite carrying more weight.. Perhaps he might have beaten TG at level weights anyway but for me thats about the best form in the race along with that of Cornish rebel and Innox..
Despite the crawling and whatever else he still beat exotic dancer by 28 lengths. ED is not short of pace and TG is definitely going to be better over a trip. His jumping may be his downfall but I think several of the principals have doubts about their jumping so i’ll probably be with him.
And how many of those was Exotic Dancer eased? Not saying Turpin Green cannot win the Hennessy, but to make a case for him based on beating Exotic Dancer 28 lengths is wide of the mark.
Ok so say he beat him by ten lengths? He’s gone up 6 lbs for it? Lenient or not we’ll find out saturday.
The basis of my argument was his run behind Star de Mohaison anyway. Plus that I think he’s crying out for a trip and soft ground.. All of which it looks like he’ll get. I was only answering your dismissal of the form, not using it as the basis of my argument.
No reason to believe imo that Turpin Green ran to a higher level of form at Carlisle than he had at Aintree. Therefore a 6 lb penalty picked up at Carlisle can only hinder his chance.
- Total Posts 17716
<br> Innox is now a nonrunner and goes to Cheltenham next week!
Fair play to the owners (and former trainers) of Montgermont, the Taylor’s for being completely honest about the horse breaking a blood vessel at home after Aintree and also suspecting he burst at Aintree itself. Absolutly no need for them to have made that information public but it is something for his potential backers to bear in mind.
- Total Posts 17716
Does anyone know what’s happening with Southern Vic?<br> Still quoted in all lists for the Hennessy, yet William Hill have him as 5/2 fav for the Troytown on Sunday???
The exchange market would suggest Southern Vic won’t be travelling to Newbury (also that 7/2 for the Troytown is from an opening 4s). And the Post has R Walsh jocked up for Cornish Rebel; can only assume he would be riding SV were he running.
(Edited by nore at 7:26 pm on Nov. 23, 2006)
- Total Posts 17716
<br> Nore
Thanks for that.<br>You’re probably correct as the exchanges seem to be a much better guide than we get from the trainers.<br> Might be an oblique tip to Cornish Rebel’s chance as well?
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.