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As has been said by many already on this thread this is a cracking race and the best Hennessy I can remember for a long time.
As much as I’d love to see Denman run them ragged I just can’t see him conceding all that weight to quality horses like Diamond Harry, Weird Al, Burton Port, Pandorama, etc….
It would be the greatest achievement of his career for me if he was to win tomorrow, as much as I’d like to though I just can’t see it.
Diamond Harry will be the one carrying my money tomorrow, everything looks right for him tomorrow IMO. I can just see him travelling strongly in behind in a true run race and coming through to win nicely like he did first time up last season. His last go over fences at Newbury wasn’t that bad, a couple of mistakes and wandered about a bit, but absolutely pinged the last and ran on strongly to beat a couple of decent horses.
Carruthers is one I may have a few quid e/w on at a bigger price…
I will be screaming for Denman over anything I’ve backed if he’s in contention.
But Madison du Berlais looks a big ew price at 20-1, a former winner off 10st 1.
And Diamond Harry is a horse of massive potential with good course form. I’ve had a bit of him to win at 17-2.
If Denman can give almost 2 stone to some of these horses then he IS great.
I can’t see it personally, though.
Burton Point has 10 stone, jumps well for a tiddler and stays well. As a classy, improving beastie with only 10 stone on his back he is a corking E/W at 9/1 with serious win credentials.
Hope it is a cracker.
Zippy.
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Even if Denman doesn’t win tomorrow I think he’ll do well enough to show these novices aren’t as good as everyone thinks.
It was Cooldine last season having beating What A Friend and Carruthers 30 lengths in the RSA, now it’s these 4 who are the *next big thing*.
And it’s easy to say one horse won’t win but if Denman gets within 10 lengths of the winner it shows a lack of their ability in my opinion.
As mentioned already I’ve backed Neptune Collonges and Denman, cause I think he is in a different league to these.
As for these second season novices you’re more likely to see them in the Punchestown Chase and Aintree Bowl than the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Tomorrow is gonna show us a lot and I’m happy there’s 4 big hopes cause there won’t be excuses for all of them.
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Though I’ve supported him for the last 2 runnings, I just couldn’t have Denman. He clearly hasn’t improved from last year, yet has to give weight to much better horses (None of those out of the handicap went off at less than 12/1, yet tomorrow he meets the next 4 in the betting all on worse terms than he would last year, all at single figure prices). I’d still like to see him win, just don’t believe he’ll be up to it.
Pandorama worries me more than most. Though he doesn’t have the staying profile of any of the past 10 winners, that may be a result of his not making the dance-floor for the RSA, and, as he also holds a Welsh National engagement, his trainer clearly thinks it not a problem.
The ground may have gone against Silver By Nature slightly (it’s now no worse than good – on times, over the past 2 days) though I’d still expect him to run much better than his price suggests he should.I too think it would be great to see denman power home in front but have doubts he will be quite up to the task this year given the weights, his age and the quality of the field. Instead I have gone for pandorama each way, although out of the handicap his form up to now is very encouraging only beaten once over hurdles by the willie mullins good thing micheal dagneut or whatever his name is!! Paul Carbery is ridding as good as ever since he cut back on the sherry’s
and noel meade as ever is a top class trainner and will surely have him primed for this and he goes very well fresh, never beaten first time out after a break i dont tink!! So now i really hope to see pandorama storming home infront i think he could be a really serious horse in the coming seasons!!As great as it is too see, it’s slightly gutting to see Carruthers, Weird Al and Burton Port taking each other on here – they must be my three favourite chasers in training right now…
I wouldn’t be so quick to crab Carruthers’ reappearance at Ascot – far from it. On ground way too quick for the mudlark, he never really seemed to be travelling on it, and carried the 11st-12 far enough before plugging on willingly. The ground at Newbury will be far more to his liking. I often wonder what goes through the minds of the horses connections to be honest…
Burton Port is as sure footed a chaser as any I know, and the same can be said for Weird Al. Both would more than do themselves justice in a Gold Cup IMO, which puts Denman out the frame here, without question.
Weird Al’s pipe opener over a slightly inadequate trip was franked in no uncertain way by Little Josh, and he looks like an E/W steal.
For me, the winner comes from these three, and I’m leaning towards my old mate Carruthers at the weights.
I’ll be gutted to see any of them get beaten.
If I was a layer ( which I’m not ), I would confidently take on Denman today. He cannot possibly win off this mark.
I won’t be having a bet on the race but I fancy Weird Al and Burton Port to run well.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I love Denman, but i feel sorry for him today, he has got an inpossible task as it were.
There are some very good and very promising horses in that field today, and you just cannot give them the weight that they are receiving.
Im sure he will run a great race, and i will be cheering him on all the way, but i just cannot see him winning today.
I love Denman, but I really cant see him giving the weight to these horses at the bottom of the weights this year. In my mind its a much stronger race than last years renewal. Pandorama, Weird Al, Diamond Harry for starters. I honestly believe at least 1 of these will beat him this year (& wouldn’t be surprised if all 3 did) with the weight he has to give them. What A Friend & Barbers Shop are not top class, (even allowing for WAF’s exploits after Newbury last year I still have him down as a bit of a dodge pot).
Weird Al looks really solid to me, but I’ll be backing Diamond Harry. He loves Newbury, crucially shows his best 1st time out & he is carrying my money. This is his best chance of landing a big race this season.
If he was to blow out, I’d love to see Denman pull it off, I just cant see it happening myself.
I did back Diamond Harry that very day £100 win, I’m still keen on him but not as much on good ground now I must admit. Pandorama at 9-1 has been my bet today, I rarely back two horses in one race, my intentions were to have another bet on DH today but I’ve changed my mind & had £150 on Pandorama instead.
I’ll still be cheering Denman if he wins, I really cant see it happening though, even more so now on goodish ground.
What a race we are in store for…
Good luck all
Denman is being asked a great deal today iam probably being silly but i hope it does not have any detrimental effect on him cant see him being good enough Weird Al looks a horse who has the stamina required for me.
I’ve just had a look at this courtesy of Timeform’s free race pass.
The striking thing about the race is how many horses like to lead/race prominently.
I think the pace will be particularly strong so I’m looking for a hold-up horse that has the cruising speed to travel off the pace; is a good jumper; and has the stamina to come through at the finish.
The horse that seems to fit the bill is Big Fella Thanks. He’s a sound jumper who travels well off the pace; has won over two and a half miles but stays beyond three miles. He should come on for his first run of the season and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him cruising up behind the tiring leaders as they jump the last.
The only slight negative is his tendency to idle but hopefully a race where everything in front of him is tiring may negate that.
In the circumstances 14/1 looks a standout e/w price
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I had a third bet on Barbers Shop to go with Neptune Collonges and Denman. Some good each way value hopefully.
Well done enough reading all the various form and comments and going for:
Diamond Harry
Taranis
Madison Du BerlaisPromises to be an absolute thriller!!
What a Diamond performance!!
Great run from Burton Port and Denman ran a blinder under his big weight.
Had Diamond Harry to win, with ew bets on Burton Port and Taranis.
Happy Days.
Monstrous effort from Denman again.
Francome seems to think Bourton Port ‘belies his ability but makes up for it with his attitude’.
I’ve never understood that one tbh.
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