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How very hard it is to continue with a New Year resolution but they were never intended to be easy.
It is a help with Newcastle being abandoned but a quick check to the BHA web site still informs Plumpton as HEAVY-Soft in places which is a shame because it is a good meeting.
I was pleased with myself by avoiding Chepstow yesterday for the very same reasons but still chose 3 for fun in the Welsh Grand Nation and would have kissed my stakes goodbye had I bet. So why should it be so hard to not bet when knowing the conditions are stacked against my betting style.
It feels very much like a bad habit just like when I gave up smoking almost 15 years ago, I remember sitting on my hands for a month and even now there are times when I fancy a fag, old habits die hard so they say and so I must confess, as enjoyable as my pastime is, it remains a habit.
Billy's Outback Shack
As I mentioned last week, I have subscribed to HRB. I was playing about with it this morning trying to get to grips with the system builder and decided to see how clear second favourites get on at Plumpton. It gave me a list of the following qualifiers for today.
First three have won without a penny of my money on them!
12:30, Jaisalmer (IRE)
13:05, San Pedro De Senam (FR)
13:35, Game On (IRE)
14:35, Shanroe Santos (IRE)
15:10, Whispering Harry
15:45, SoulsaverI've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysAs I mentioned last week, I have subscribed to HRB. I was playing about with it this morning trying to get to grips with the system builder and decided to see how clear second favourites get on at Plumpton. It gave me a list of the following qualifiers for today.
First three have won without a penny of my money on them!
12:30, Jaisalmer (IRE)
13:05, San Pedro De Senam (FR)
13:35, Game On (IRE)
14:35, Shanroe Santos (IRE)
15:10, Whispering Harry
15:45, SoulsaverThis is one for the HRB experts but I did see GAME ON’s race
Billy's Outback Shack
It’s pure coincidence as I am just trying to familiarise myself with the programme.
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysMonday January 8
Fontwell = HEAVY
I am quite please mu two betting selections are racing on the Flat AW surface and so there is no worries regarding the ground conditions at either Fontwell or Hereford.
Wolverhampton
VICTORY BOND @ 8/11 in the 6.45 ………………….. WON
CLIFFS of CAPRI @ 1/1 in the 5.15 ………………… LOST
I am quite sure if our man MrE was here he would be berating me for not making use of his MERDS staking for doubles but caution is my watchword during these difficult times.
Billy's Outback Shack
Tuesday December 9
JACK the TRUTH @ 11/8 Southwell 2.20 ………………………. LOST
BLACK OP 8/13 Doncaster 12.25 …………………………….. WON
Double: –
BLACK OP 8/13 plus MOUNT MEWS 3/10 Doncaster 11.55 ………. WONCLIFFS of CAPRI was only just touched off yesterday and has given me hope of a wee double today at very short prices. MOUNT MEWS early price being far too short for a single bet but looking worth a play and so doubling up with BLACK OP looks worth a chance.
*MOUNT MEWS & BLACK OP are each from the Vampire Plan whilst Jack the Truth is the most napped.
Billy's Outback Shack
Wednesday January 10
No selections today ! ! !
For the first time since I started to filter via the RP race cards number of tips I am bereft of selections. My requirement being the majority of tipsters must favour my chosen horse and so I look for a minimum of 8 and today it simply not happened for me.
When the markets have settled I will have a look to see where the early money is aimed and perhaps for a bit of fun will play some low stakes fun bets.
Billy's Outback Shack
I think the money is best kept in my pocket today.
The early market indicates MAKE MUSIC (2.50 Lingfield) but I have an aversion to 7lb claim riders and prefer experienced jockey’s.
RAINBOW REBEL (7.15 Kempton) is also swerved with an amateur rider.
I was almost tempted by: –
FORTUNE & GLORY (3.10 Lingfield)
SOMETHING LUCKY (3.25 Lingfield) ……………………………………… Won 3/1
AIBELL (3.55 Lingfield)It will be good should they all go on and win and prove there is some credit to following the early money but I shall have a day off today.
Billy's Outback Shack
Thursday January 11
Two from Catterick & Newcastle today: –
HEAR NO EVIL (Catterick 2.05) @ 8/11 …………………………… WON 4/6
THEGLASGOWWARRIOR (Newcastle 3.00) @ 11/10 ……………………… WON 8/11
Plus a small win double …………………………………………………….. WON
Billy's Outback Shack
Friday January 12
My favourite bet of 2 x singles and a double came up trumps yesterday with the selections derived via the BF system and Top of the Naps table and after a bit of a struggle moved into the BLACK.
Twice as many selections today holds me back from any type of multiple such as MERDS etc.
MYSTIQUE MOON 2.20 Lingfield @ 2/1 …………………….. LOST
STYLE DE GARDE 3.00 Huntingdon @ 1/1 …………………… LOST
MOSSEYB 7.45 Newcastle @ 5/6 ………………………….. LOST
BLASTOFMAGIC 8.15 Newcastle @ 6/4 ……………………… LOST
Billy's Outback Shack
BF are winning again
12.20 Ling Star Story W6/4
2.20 Ling Mystique Moon L
4.00 Hunt Oh Michelle plSaturday January 13
I am still stinging from the 4 – 0 loss yesterday and am finding it hard to look on the brightside when having worked my figures to a 52% SR before the collapse and made worse by a schoolboy error by double staking by mistake.
3 @ Kempton for today: –
12.20 REDICEAN @ 8/11 …………………………………. WON
12.55 SECRET INVESTOR @ 5/4 ………………………… 2nd = LOST
2.05 WAITING PATIENTLY @ 13/8 ………………………….. WON
Billy's Outback Shack
Sunday January 14
It very much looks like rather drab pickings today but the best must be made from such offerings.
COOLE HALL 12.40 Kelso @ 4/9 ………………………….. WON
SNOWY WINTER 2.55 Southwell @ 1/1 ……………………… LOST
MR COCO BEAN 3.55 Southwell @ 11/8 …………………….. LOST
In the hope of profit boosting and perhaps the short odds may be in my favour it is an worthwhile chance to risk a small stakes treble.
Billy's Outback Shack
Amazing how difficult it can be to get a treble up.
I’m still playing about with HRB, but have not settled on any definite course of action.I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysPurwell.
Difficult and nigh on impossible (for me). The one step forward and then two back, just when I think I am getting somewhere.
Almost all the wise old punters with many years experience know the short end on the market prices is possibly the least profitable but in my experience they gloss over the simple fact it is where most winners come from. They claim if 20 to 30% of winners are found at what we term as favourites, then 70/80% come from elsewhere but they cannot define exactly where elsewhere is.
You say you are playing around but that is what we are all mostly doing and it is what I love.
My version of The VAMPIRE Plan is producing 70% winners but the profit is tiny and so I need to get a boost with a double here and there and allow me to dream but a treble would be the icing on the cake or even a stake increase following a set back but it is was makes it all so interesting.
You will have to keep us updated on your progress.
Billy's Outback Shack
Monday January 15
Having addressed the problem of betting favourites I am faced with LISP (1.25 Plumpton) at 1/3 it is too short even for me.
BRIANSTORM (Plumpton 3.40) @ 6/4 ………………………. Abd
ONEROA (Wolverhampton 4.35) @ 6/5 ……………………… Lost
FRONTIERSMAN (Wolverhampton 6.40) @ 11/8 ……………….. Lost
Billy's Outback Shack
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