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<br>not quite so sure i would agree with joe mercer but barring that i suppose the definition of good very good top class and best is open to debate anyway
how for example would differentiate in wording say between sea bird and pentire celbre or mill reef and generous or dayjur and stravinsky
and hawk wing has now won grp 1 on both good/firm and g/s the ground being very patchy at sandown
imperial dancer also beat indian creek so how do you read granderas form now?? i would not include eithers running to either boost or denigrate the form the race was between the first three and i doubt if kinane ever thought he should push his horse out any more in that ground just os the distance between him and imperial dancer was more respectable.
u mentioned either earlier in thsi thread or another on the same subject about piggot riding but he was noted for never pushing out horses in grp 1 races a good thing especially when they dont like the ground
Good points about Imperial Dancer, steve. A much improved performer ever since being stepped up to 10f this season.
As for Indian Creek, he must have fast ground in spite of what Elsworth says. I don’t think you can use his bad run in the Eclipse to cast doubt on the form of the Prince of Wales which was run on completely different ground. What you probably can say with confidence is that the Prince of Wales field was substandard; but Grandera won it easily nonetheless.
<br> esc as i said i wouldnt be to quick to use either imperial dancer or indian creek to either boost or denigrate the form of either hawk wing or grandera.
pilduski is a handicapper that went on to better things the eclipse being one of them.
before the introduction of the pattern system the cambridshire was a useful trial for the eclipse
indian creek has run well on g/s before (champion stakes) it may just be he is very inconsistent or perhaps some races just fall right for him he may appear much better than he actually is
There have been multitudes of sprint handicappers that have improved to group 1 victories.
Yes the previous rating was Postmark which comes out a day before the Official Rating.
All of those ratings mentioned by me (including those for HC and ROG) are Postmark ratings.
The Official rating of 122+ for the Eclipse (123 overall) was in today’s paper. I was not privy to that yesterday.
Postmark ratings are invariably a few pounds higher than the official rating because of the way they are arrived at, but are consistent with themselves.
If you are asking me have we seen the best of Hawk Wing I would say no. But if you are asking me on what he has already achieved is he the horse that we were anticipating I would have to say yes. He is a dual Group 1 winner and runner up in two Classics and has a rating as good or better than any horse let alone another 3-y-o seen this season.
With the very real prospect of further improvement I would be affirmative in that we have a real superstar on our hands.
It is the mark of a great horse that it can achieve so well with conditions against it. When he has his correct conditions he will dazzle.
The very point of this is that the likes of Imperial Dancer and Halling are exceptions rather than the rule. The fact is that Imperial Dancer is a horse capable of running to 116, which all things being equal entitles him to add a Group race to his Listed success and makes him something very much more than just a handicapper.
The horse he beat in that Listed event Island House has since won and runs in a Group 2 today at Newmarket.<br>
HAWK WING: Clearly a good horse, although not as good as High Chaparral and not as good as Rock Of Gibraltar over a mile. Why? Because High Chaparral beat him in the Derby and Rock Of Gibraltar beat him in the Guineas. To be better than them he’ll have to prove it by beating them or by blowing away a decent field on his "favoured" fast ground.
I am scepticle as his last two runs have been good and both were on softer going. He didn’t look to be struggling on the ground and we’re taking other people’s word for it. Although, i think he’ll prove better on fast ground personally.
If Hawk Wing came up against ROG over a mile, i’d go for ROG (as he holds that Guineas win over HW) and if HW came up against HC over 12f, the choice would be HC, because he outstayed/outbattled HW in the Derby.
Right now Hawk Wing has not shown us (on the course) that he’s one of the greats. If Sholokhov’s a reliable guide, HC hold HW on form as HC has beaten HW and beaten Sholokhov by 3.5l’s whislt HW has beaten Sholokhov by 2.5l’s.
Hawk Wing has to PROVE he’s the best.
Others from the Eclipse,
Sholokhov…improving horse. But is a pacemaker for Ballydoyle. When he gets the chance as first choice i’m sure he could win a Group race in the UK/Ire but he’s a pacemaker right now.
Equerry…not G1 standard on Saturday’s run. He was soundly beaten and i don’t see any evidence that he’s anything better than G3 yet.
Imperial Dancer…beat Island House in a listed race at Goodwood and has not proved he’s Group class. He’s no G1 horse. He may win a minor G3 but listed races are the place for him judged on winning form.
Indian Creek…record on g/f ground: 1112. Enough said.
There’s no way Hawk Wing – judged on racecourse form – is as good as High Chaparral, or Rock Of Gibraltar. People can talk all day about the disadvantage Hawk Wing had at Newmarket but the fact is he was second to ROG.
Hawk Wing has to PROVE it. I’m not neccessarily saying he won’t prove his class in the long run but i am saying he hasn’t proved it yet.
I agree that HW is not as good at 12f as HC (certainly on soft), but is no doubt better than HC at his correct trip on a firmer surface.
There cannot be much much doubt that HW is better than ROG at any distance, as despite losing to ROG he was rated higher than ROG on his Guineas performance by Postmark, Timeform and officially (as because of the abnormalities of the race it was rated as two races).
In absolute terms they are rated very similarly. These are Postmark ratings for all of the relevent races:
Hawk Wing 127+ (Eclipse), 126 (Derby), 125 (Guineas).
High Chaperral 129 (Derby), 126 (Irish Derby).
Rock Of Gibraltar 126 (St James’s Palace), 116 (Irish Guineas, 123 (Guineas).
So you see Hawk Wing outperforms ROG on ROG’s best performance (despite losing narrowly to him) and is second in absolute terms only to HC’s Epsom Derby performance.
Given the expected improvement for HW when he has his conditions he is clearly the one who is likely to finish top of these three by the end of the season.
Any takers?
Yes AC Gunner B did turn out to be a top performer from humble beginnings.<br>
Steve, i’d have to call those Guineas ratings in to question. I too went along with the theory that Hawk Wing would have won if drawn on the same side as ROG. But i’m not so sure now.
Hawk Wing finished 5l’s clear of Aramram in the 2000. ROG finished 5 and a neck clear of Aramram. Now we can say Aramram was at a disadvantage as he was on the wrong side that day. But what’s happened since?
Aramram has taken on ROG again. And the result? ROG beat Aramram by 5.75l’s at Ascot.
Postmark reckoned that Aramram ran to his exact Guineas form in the St James Palace.
So what does this mean? It means Hawk Wing has beaten Aramram 5l’s and ROG has beaten Aramram by 5l’s and a neck AND 5.75l’s. It’s all very close, but if ROG and HW ran against each other again over a mile, i’d want to be on ROG.
I believe that the handicappers (i do my own ratings so i include myself in this) made a mistake in rating Hawk Wing above ROG in the 2000.
ROG is now rated above HW (by Postmark) over a mile, they are 126 and 125 respectively. I think Postmark’s brought things into line by doing that and Aramram was used as a guide.
(Hawk Wing might finish top of the three Ballydoyle horses at the end of the season but judged on what i’ve seen so far, he’s not top of them now.)
Fair enough if you disagree with them rob. But that’s what they are nevertheless.
Personally I agree with the assertion that HW has a clear edge over ROG and if they ran tomorrow at 8-10f on good ground you could have what you like with me on ROG.<br>
(Edited by Steve M at 1:35 pm on July 9, 2002)
I am only using Postmark figures to be consistent as they are the only ones I have to hand in all respects for all of the horses.
The official picture is virtually identical albeit at a slightly lower level for everyone. The only difference being that HW has been given 122+ for the Eclipse against 123 for the Derby, whereas Postmark makes him 1lb higher for the Eclipse vs. the Derby. Although it is debatable whether a 122+ is actually superior to a 123.
Of course the verdict at the end of the season will be on Official ratings (although Timeform is often recognised as being an even more accurate indication).
As you are so sceptical of Hawk Wing’s chances you will no doubt want to snap up the evens I’ll give you against either of the other two beating him.
Since it is beholden on Hawk Wing to put up a performance better than anything seen by anything so far this season to achieve this you may well feel this is the bet of the season. It is one you will lose nevertheless.
The official view from today’s Post:
HAWK WING fell just short of his best performance to date in winning the Coral Eurobet Eclipse Stakes at Sandown on Saturday, according to the official handicapper. <br> <br> The Aidan O’Brien trained colt had a rating of 123 going into the race and in defeating stablemate Sholokhov by two and a half lengths he achieved a mark of 122+. <br> <br> Senior BHB handicapper Nigel Gray measured the display superior to that of Medicean a year ago but there is still ground to make up on previous Aidan O’Brien-trained winner Giant’s Causeway. <br> <br> “With Indian Creek failing to fire and not reproducing his run behind Grandera at Ascot, Hawk Wing had 8lb in hand of his rivals, the next highest rated horse being Sholokhov,â€ÂÂ
sorry i forgot about this one.
Timarida won the McDonagh handicap at Galway before winning all manner of races three group1 in a row i think, until defeated by Halling and Bosra sham in the champion stakes.
Francombe and Swinburn and Down etc today were suggesting that Hawk Wing is a true champion etc, no doubt about it.
You can say he’s a very good horse on Gins and Derby 2nd, and an Eclipse win.
But the Eclipse??? (The Group 3 Eclipse Stakes!) OK, a strong Group Three renewal.
It’s simple. Hawk Wing was workmanlike, and if he wasn’t what was he?
I’m still to be convinced by the hysterical hype about this horse. Look no further than Rock Of Gibraltar for solid, obvious Group One form and clearly impressive Group One successes.
Hawk Wing may in time prove to be a champion but HE’S NOT YET. Wait until he wins a proper Group One well enough and I’ll be prepared to go along with it. I’m still not sure about his temperement, his ears were flat back even after Kinane had eased on him at the end of the race, and he flattered to deceive the way he was travelling on the bridle two out.
Put it this way Escorial. I had grave doubts about his readiness to run in the Eclipse and could not back him although I refused to back against him.
As doubtful as I was about the Eclipse, I am absolutely confident he will beat any horse in the world if reappearing at 8-10f on good ground next time out. What he did in the Eclipse was extraordinary given the ordeal he was forced to experience in the Derby.<br>
i think those who think ROG would beat HW over a mile aer the same people that made sharastani faqvorite to beat dancing brave in the KG. Couldnt understand it then – too young to really know at that stage – but i staill dont understand it.
Although it cannot be proven, it wasnt just in the guineas that there was an advantage to the far rails, somthing that was being talked about before the race, and is still the most likely that HW was disadvantaged by running on slower ground.
I’m sure Hawk Wing was disadvantaged MH.
But whose to say he would have got by Rock Of Gibraltar had he been on the other side of the track?
Postmarks highest rating for ROG over a mile 126, highest for Hawk Wing 125. It’s bloody close but if they ran to form, ROG would shade it.
Mesh made the point: Hawk Wing is not YET this champion horse people are talking about.
Yes, he may well live up to the hype. He’s done well so far and i credit the horse for that, but he’s not a great at the moment.
My argument is that Hawk Wing has NOT YET PROVEN up to the hype. I haven’t said he won’t, just that he hasn’t yet.
As for HW’s attitude, that’s just a hunch some people have. There’s no proof to back up our hunches because that’s what they are, hunches. I’m not sure about his temperament and i look forward to seeing him in a battle. If he wins, then i will apologise to the horse.
But my main argument is like i said, Hawk Wing is not yet this great wonderhorse. He’s good, but he’s not great…who knows if he will be, that’s for the future.
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