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Hardwicke Stakes 2018

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2018 Hardwicke Stakes 2018

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 37 total)
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  • #1356645
    VoleurVoleur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 658

    Can somebody give me a reason why Crystal Ocean isn’t the banker of the meeting at 2/1? Scratch that, the banker of the year?

    He is a proper Group 1 horse in my opinion, who will most likely have his ideal conditions, and will be going up against Group 3 performers at best.

    Capri will be a no show, Defoe, Idaho, and Hawkbill have all bombed out, Poet’s Word is best over 10f. I know Idaho had excuses about the ground last time, but he is a wrung short of Crystal Ocean’s class in my book. I am really struggling to find something to beat the Stoute horse, or even give him a race. I think he will develop into one of this seasons top middle distance performers, and might even have a big say in the King George/Arc et al.

    2/1 looks an absolute rick.

    #1356652
    jackh1092jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2263

    Poet’s Word would’ve been a bet for this, as i very much believe he’s a 12f horse….however, as he won’t go here by the sounds of things its pretty pointless!

    2-1 does look pretty decent as he’s certainly looking like he’s improved again.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1356664
    charlie87charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 803

    Some stats from 2017 (haven’t added Idaho)

    14/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
    14/14 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
    13/14 – Placed last time out
    12/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
    11/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
    10/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (6)
    10/14 – Had run at Ascot before
    9/14 – Placed favourites
    8/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
    9/14 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 7 winners)
    5/14 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
    5/14 – Winning favourites
    6/14 – Won their previous race
    3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
    9 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
    7 of the last 11 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
    No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
    6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
    Trainer Roger Charlton has a 29% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
    The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/2

    #1356677
    BigGBigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6578

    He looks a decent Favourite Voleur, and it seems the money is all for him as he’s
    only 2/1 in 1 place now, generally 7/4. That’s a tad short for me, and whilst I agree
    with your take on most of those mounting the challenge against him, I’m not sure that
    “bombed out” is a fair description you can put on Defoe. Admittedly he was beaten into
    3rd place last time out in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh, but I think
    there are reasons (excuses if you like) for that result. I think they all gave Lancaster
    Bomber a bit too much leeway, but even so both Cliffs Of Moher and Defoe made good late
    headway. I think Ryan Moore knew exactly what he was doing on COM, and no complaint about
    that, when he matched Defoe’s run, keeping on the outside of him so that Defoe was hard
    against the rail with Lancaster Bomber in front on the rails and COM on his outside. The
    race report reads “bit short of room inside final furlong but no impression final 150
    yards”. My impression is that he had nowhere to go, and when that became obvious to Atzeni
    he simply accepted his fate and kept him going hands and heels. I think he had a bit more to
    offer and it was just one of those things. I don’t think there will be much between Crystal
    Ocean and Defoe, but at the odds I’d rather take the chance with Defoe at 10/1.

    #1356687
    PantsPants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 630

    Idaho is a cracking e/w bet at 12/1, doesn’t handle Epsom so last run can be ignored. Won this last year and sure to go close again.

    #1356694
    CharlesOlneyCharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2050

    I too have had an each-way bet on Idaho at 12/1 with Corals.

    It’s my biggest bet of the week at the moment.

    #1356700
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    I shoved Crystal Ocean in a treble with two Wesley Ward fillies.

    This looks a pretty weak field and although I wouldn’t call Crystal Ocean Group 1 class yet, he is surely up to landing this, as he is unexposed and Classic runner-up in a St Leger that has worked out well with Stradivarius just in behind Crystal Ocean there and Melbourne Cup winner Rekindling also in the field, with Defoe also well behind that day.

    The horse seems consistent and he stays well. This is tougher than has last win but he should be cherry ripe now and I expected he’d be 6/4-11/8 for the race.

    Not a bankroll job for me but I thought he’d be good for my multiple bets with Chelsea Cloisters, Shang Shang Shang and Recoletos in the hope of landing a 6/1, 11/2, 8/1 and 2/1 Yankee.

    Salouen is in from 40/1 to 10/1 after stirring Cracksman up last time. If he really has improved then he has a change. I am always sceptical in these scenarios though and would be inclined to place lay Salouen at 2/1 here. I’ll call BS on the Cracksman run until I see more evidence.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1356701
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Who says Idaho doesn’t handle Epsom. Pants?
    Previous year’s disappointment in the Corry Cup can possibly be excused by (I remember) a torrid trip over. So I can see why he improved from Epsom to Ascot last year.
    Personally, Idaho’s 2 3/4 lengths 3rd to Harzand in the Derby proves he handles Epsom. So, what happened in this year’s Corry Cup?
    May be temperament is an increasing problem? Always been a free sweater (even when successful) but do nerves get the better of him more often these days? If so just as likely to happen at Ascot and if not has serious questions to answer. Just as likely to bomb out again and that means being out of the first three. imo No each way poke.

    value is everything
    #1356702
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    the ground,that’s what happened this year at Epsom, his form figures on GF in UK/Ireland are 1,1,1.

    If it comes up really quick he has a decent chance, but I like the fav (as many do on here)

    #1356712
    PantsPants
    Participant
    • Total Posts 630

    The favourite is too short for me here and worth taking on, The Ledger form is strong and he’s a likeable sort but he disappointed when favourite at this meeting last year, so not for me at under 2’s

    Idaho doesn’t look entirely comfortable at Epsom to my eye Mark and he’s 3,6,4 form at the track backs that up.

    He’s 1,3 at Ascot with his KG run very strong form. Looks like he’ll get his ground too.

    Take your point regards temperament but he seemed fine at Chester first time out, so I’m not overly concerned.

    #1356713
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    the ground,that’s what happened this year at Epsom, his form figures on GF in UK/Ireland are 1,1,1.

    Is it wise to take any notice of a stat like that, nwalton?

    Idaho met Harzand three times at level weights on ground softer than good. Could Idaho have done any better in those three races had the ground been good-firm?
    Ballysax? On heavy, 1 1/4 lengths second with over 7 lengths back to the third.
    Derby? Only beaten 2 3/4 lengths third on good-soft. With 5 back to the fourth.
    Irish Derby? Just 1/2 length behind Harzand on good-yeilding, 3 3/4 in front of the third.

    On both Racing Post ratings and Timeform ratings Idaho’s career best performance was actually put up on a soft surface – when 5 1/4 lengths third to Enable, only Ulysses less than a length in front (second).

    Those three 1’s on good-firm were: On debut as a two year old beating Theodorico 3 1/2 lengths, then a 1 3/4 lengths beating of Housesofparliament in the Voltigeur, and finally a 1/2 length beating of Barsanti in last year’s Hardwicke. All at level weights. I tell a lie, JOB put up 1 lb overweight in the Maiden.

    imo Best look at not only position but also the horses, distances and performance ratings involved before deciding which race performances were better.

    Was Idaho’s Epsom performance really down to soft ground?

    The way of judging form by position achieved is thoroughly outdated.

    value is everything
    #1356723
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1843

    If you really believe that’s the way I look at form Gt you’re much mistaken, but whatever floats your boat. I won’t bang on as you will come back with a 5000 word essay. I will end with this though anyone backing Idaho on soft ground whatever the price need to give up the game. Good luck with your punting but I find the way you talk to some people on here a bit tiresome.Please try to answer people as they do know a bit about the game even at times as much as you.
    I won’t post again on this subject so feel free to carry on

    #1356727
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    If you really believe that’s the way I look at form Gt you’re much mistaken, but whatever floats your boat. I won’t bang on as you will come back with a 5000 word essay. I will end with this though anyone backing Idaho on soft ground whatever the price need to give up the game. Good luck with your punting but I find the way you talk to some people on here a bit tiresome.Please try to answer people as they do know a bit about the game even at times as much as you.
    I won’t post again on this subject so feel free to carry on

    Sorry you feel that way, nwalton. What you don’t appreciate is that as a consequence of your misleading statistics other TRFers selections may be influenced unless someone else challenges them/puts the other point of view. People need to know all the worthwhile evidence and make their own minds up. That’s why things need to be explained fully.

    A horse puts up his best performance on soft ground and puts up many of his best performances on a soft surface… And yet you still think “anyone backing Idaho on soft ground whatever the price need to give up the game”. I am learning all the time and have learnt from many TRFers; am sure many on here know more about the game than me. Just not people who think they know better than the form book and those that think price does not matter. :whistle:

    GL to all backing Idaho, if putting his best hoof foreward isn’t without a chance – on any going. ;-)

    value is everything
    #1356728
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Can somebody give me a reason why Crystal Ocean isn’t the banker of the meeting at 2/1?

    No. :bye:

    value is everything
    #1358219
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26480

    Why didn’t I take the ante-post price on Crystal Ocean?
    Now taken 4/7, not really my sort of price but can’t really see a danger. I rate him a 70% chance of winning.

    Any betting without market around?
    Can’t find one on oddschecker and the betfair one hasn’t taken off yet.
    Barsanti looks a good bet in that market too. Ran well last time, has a good record at Ascot/ran well here last year and is consistent. Idaho has a chance on the book but is looking increasingly inconsistent/temperamental; running one good race in three. Cliffs Of Moher ran no sort of race in the POW, albeit not knocked about… and Red Verdon is surely not good enough/too slow.

    Bit concerned about where the pace is coming from, but other than that seems fairly straghtforward.

    value is everything
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