- This topic has 38 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 3 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Hello again guys and gals,
I am starting a new thread here, after a bit of a break. I go in and out of this game, the start of the football season has rekindled my yearn for a little play.
I don’t normally do flat racing, but I am going to try this system out on it and see what happens.
Yarmouth 19:10, my predictor has Expert Opinion in with as much chance as the favourite Electric Love here, and a predicted price of 4.5, so I am happy to take the 7.0 on offer. with a 2pts win stake.
-2
So yesterday was a bit of a rushed start, having another go today, also going to combine my value lay bets into this same topic instead of having 2.
B15:20 I think this could be quite open, there are a few without too much form to go on, especially around here, but I think Bug Boy should be shorter than the 14.5 on offer, so I am going to have 1pt win and 1pt for 3 places at 3.55 I also think that the Favourite (Caramalised) is well worth opposing having only won once before on the flat, and that was at Bath, and all of his best Jumps form has been on flat course. Definite 1pt Lay @ 4.3
D17:40 Another quite open race, but Copper And Five is, I think, well over priced and available at 17 on Betfair, with a 3 place price of 4.8, which is what I think its win price should actually be, so I am playing 1pt on both of these markets. Down in class and now off of a fair mark, he should enjoy a a good straight gallop to the line.
More to come from Doncaster later. Actually nope, didn’t fancy anything else.
Nice start at Brighton
+3.55 on that race.Copper And Five never got going
+1.55 for today -0.45 so far.
B14:20 I am going to side with top weight Recon Mission here, I wouldn’t say that he has a massively better chance than Sir Oliver, but I think its between these 2, and @ 11.0 I prefer the value on Recon Mission. I am also going to lay the favourite, simply as the price is way to short for a horse that has never experienced Brighton before.
1pt win @ 11
1pt lay @ 2.8I have looked at the 16:25 at Brighton as well, again I like the top weight, but the price is exactly where my predictor has it, so no real value to be had, I will leave this one alone.
-2.73 / -3.18
Will keep going with it as it is at the moment, but it may need some tweaks for the flat, I’ve never been much of a player on flat racing.
A2:45 I can see why the favourite is the favourite, but too short in this field. I am going to go with Red Verdon, drawn well, and possibly one of the most consistent stayers in the field. My calculator has him at 5.5 so I will take the 30 on offer, and 3.8 for 4 places. 1pt on each.
Not had time to look at anything else
-2 / -5.18
I have tried a couple of tweaks to the system to take into account weight change and Jockey form, will see how this goes over the next week.
R19:15 Point Of Woods can only really be described as unreliable, however if in the mood, very capable of running into a place in this company, hard to seeing him edge out the favourite, so going with 3 places @8.2 1 pt
No lay bets today.
Finally in profit.
+7.2 / +2.02
Not liking the look of anything tomorrow.
Been busy for the last week, but having a look today, the 15:25 at Chepstow is interesting, with some good prices.
I like Iconic Knight @ 12 I have him a 4,8 chance so happy to take those odds. Loves a testing run, and 7f is ideal. 1pt Win 2pts 3 places @ 3.45
I also like Connies Rose so going 2pts 3 places @ 3.45
I can’t see how Eye Of The Water is Fav here, so 1pt lay on that as well.
Boom!!!
Connies Rose was a non-runner so a deductions to take into account:
+1 on the Lay
+9.04 on Iconic Knight Win
+3.88 on Iconic Knight Place+13.92 total
+15.94
Carlisle 14:05 There is a lot to like about the C&D specialist John Kirkup, and the 10.5 on offer is way too high I think, I have him at 2.4 in this field. 1pt Win
He has drifted to 17.5 so had another go at that plus 2pts for 3 places.
Sailsbury 16:52 I really like Luna Magic here, great amateur Jockey as well, amazing record around here. I have her as a 2.5 shot, going 2 points win @ 8.8
Well John Kirkup never really got going but nice win with Luna Magic
+11.6 for the day
+27.54 overall
The 15:30 Mares Handicap at Worcester is quite a nice race, I don’t think that there is much to split the top 3 in the betting, but my system slightly favours Danzini who I think is a little overpriced @9.8 – 1pt Win
I have also had a 1pt Lay on Dynamic Kate @1.82, that’s way too short.
2pts 3 places @2.56 on Danzini as well.
The lay was good, picked the wrong opposition though.
-2 today +25.54 overall
I think that top weight Gometra Ginty in the 17:00 at Muss is a little over priced, I believe should be favourite.
1pt @ 5.9
Wheres Jeff is interesting in the 14:00 at Carlisle, poor run last time out, but on best of form certainly could have the beating of all of these. 1pt @ 7.2
GWO 14:25 Im A Gambler is worth taking a chance on I think, has conditions to suit, this is a jump up for him but @14 I am going to take a chance that he is on the up and up 1pt win a 1pt 3 places, place price is 4.0
Lay bet in this race on Rhoscolyn @5.8 there is nothing here to suggest favouritism in this 1 pt lay
GWO 17:20 is quite an interesting small field. Aggagio should be head and shoulders above the rest of these but I wold say is exactly the right price in this field. Interesting in terms of value is Orin Swift, who has had a couple of poor runs, but excuses could be made for those and could just spring a surprise here @27 1pt win and 1pt place @4.3
Great result in the first race with +17 -2 in the second race.
-2 for the previous couple of selections as well.
+38.54 overall
Not much of interest tomorrow, except for the 15:40 at Ripon.
Dan Allen has shunned Matty Too in favour of Bossipop, however I wonder if Matty Too has been a little overlooked in the betting. His last race was 7F which is definitely not his distance, and his previous race was on quite different course, with the ground maybe a bit too quick.
The jockey is a bit of a negative, however @18.5 I think its worth a 1pt punt, with 1pt on 4 places at 3.8
-2 / +36.54
Hamilton 19:55 Hot Team looks overpriced @ 8.6 I have him as much shorter in this. 1pt Win
-1 / +35.4
Hay 15:38 I am liking the price available on Eeh Bah Gum, looks to be on the up, and this is a good race for him I think, I have him as favourite so I think that the 9.6 available is generous 1pt Win
+8.6 / +44
The 16:15 at Brighton looks competitive. I have Haveoneyerself favourite with a predicted price of 3.8 and Hey Ho Lets Go 2nd Fav with a predicted price of 4.5. So I have had a 1pt play on both @ 5.1 and 11 respectively. Also gone 2pt on 3 places on Hey Ho @3.3
-4 / +40
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.