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Any thoughts on this?
Twist Magic should win really, but nagging doubts over his effectiveness on soft would prevent me having a bet.
Any other fancies?
I know he wasn’t at his best at Punchestown, but Twist Magic didn’t beat Natal by far off level weights.
Today Natal gets 10lbs plus the excellent Nick Scholfield’s 5lbs claim. Twist Magic will have to be at his best to deal with that concession.
This has become more of a prep race than anything else over the last few years which makes it a dangerous betting heat imo. All of todays fancied runners have done their best work with a run so today looks no different. Ashley Brook would be interesting at 14/1 e/w if he recaptured his form of early 2007. Big if though….
I’ve backed Twist Magic.
His form is far superior to anything in the field and despite the weight i’m pretty confident he will win. Nicholls thinks he is further forward than Natal who I see as the main danger at the weights and despite Scholfield being an excellent claimer, on their last run Natal had McCoy in the saddle who is worth that 5lb. The other danger may be the course and trip but I would have similar concerns over the second favourite.
Twist Magic has also won first time out for the last two seasons..
Ahhh, the old Twist Magic saga.
I think I started reading this forum after Twist Magic was beaten at Ascot and Nicholls blamed the soft ground….even though he won the Tingle Creek on soft ground.
Twist Magic is a dual Grade 1 winner and, like Aragorn said, he’s won first time out the last two seasons. Mahogany Blaze seems popular this morning but he needs to improve a lot to beat Twist Magic. There’s barely a point between them in the betting but I’d rather be on Twist Magic given his vastly superior form.
Howle Hill won a Listed race on his seasonal debut last year and if Twist Magic goes much shorter I’ll look to back King’s horse if it drifts on-course.
I onestly think Twist Magic barely gets 2 miles and if this race was at Chetenham I wouldn’t back him with bad money.
If there is a very strong gallop I doubt if he will get 2m1f but there doesn’t seem to be any trailblazers and with Natal in there you may find he will set a nice steady pace which would fall right into Twist Magic’s hands.
Mahogony Blaze has won first time up and is the obvious danger but he isn’t a confirmed fron runner and I doubt if he can beat Twist Magic who is sure to be spot on today.
Against my better judgment I am going to ignore the fact it’s 2m1f in the hope PN runs Natal to set the race up for Twist Magic and have a punt at 9/4
I think its a no bet race. Twist Magic has to give Mahogany Blaze a lot of weight and I think that gives Twiston Davies horse a great chance, but enough to back him? At 3/1 no, 5/1 yes.
Twist Magic will struggle to get this trip IMO I’d have been more optimistic of his chance if the ground were on the fast side rather than Good – Soft.
Fancy Ashley Brook at the weights. A punt admittedly, but will surely hack-up if something like top form.
Ashley Brook? Why do people keep on fancying that horse, he’s done nothing for years.
He will not win, take it from me.
I think I’ll have a little go on Mahogany Blaze as many of Nicholls havent ooked at their best yet this season. With a little e/w on Mr Quasimodo.
You’re the man PC Ian is a lucky guy he said no
I hate myself for backing that TM definately a non stayer
Cheers and cheers. Thats (nearly) covered tomorrows fireworks bill, if Ian played ball it would have covered Christmas also!
1-0 to you.
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