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ELITE STATUS 4/1
Look a good horse on return he missed the
Commenwealth cup. However this return over CD won at can win againHard to make a case for Rohaan here, especially on his form this year, but I can’t desert him at this price, and he’ll have no concerns whichever way the ground goes
Took 50’s, but happy to top that up. I’ll also go EW Four Places, hopefully better than current 25’s
Rohaan EW4Pls/50’s
Lake forest ran well in the Commonwealth Cup on his first run of the year so should be bang on for this. He was also ahead of ELITE STATUS (just) at the back end of last year albeit they both ran flat and ES may have an edge with course form but whatever I liked the price more. REGIONAL is very much respected but I’m just a little concerned about him never having run here so I have avoided him.
LAKE FOREST 11/2
This may only be a Group 3, but has the look of at least a Group 2. Regional and Elite Status would have been interesting contenders in last week’s July Cup.
Regional has the best form. I’d like his trainer to be in a bit better form. Some of his have run poorly in the last couple of weeks. However, those starting at single figure odds have mostly run well – so basic win only stats imo don’t tell the whole story… And also older horses can be immune to possible viruses anyway.
Elite Status is the obvious danger. Would have been second favourite in the Commonwealth Cup had he run. Hasn’t run since mid may, but – hasn’t been that consistent – keeping him fresh may help. That Carnarvon form was an improved performance and more progression could see him beat even an in form Regional.
Lake Forest “improved” when second in the Commonwealth Cup, but was held up in an overly strongly run race. Could be enormously flattered.
In contrast, although Kind Of Blue finished behind Lake Forest in 4th, he wasn’t exactly up with the fast pace – raced more towards the front than back and still improved quite a bit. Only thrice raced. If progressing at the same rate could be competitive at a biggish price. Bred to be a top class sprinter – By Blue Point out of a sister to Deacon Blues and The Tin Man.
Twilight Calls has some form that puts him in with a chance if going back far enough. At least the trainer has now had a winner and TC has finished well in 5f races this season. Has Candy been running him over the wrong trip?
Diligent Harry was only a neck and nose away from Mill Stream in the Duke Of York. Don’t know what went wrong at Ascot but stable is in really good form now.
Commanche Falls won this last year in a four way photo (from Diligent Harry) but hasn’t been in the same form and this renewal looks a far better race.
Quinault doesn’t look good enough unless they let him loose on the lead. Regional should at least keep tabs on him.
Got to go back a couple of years in Rohaan’s form to give hive him a chance.
Betting has it around 10/11 one of Regional and Elite Status win. imo it’s at least 8/11. So have backed both, with a saver on Kind Of Blue
Value Is Everything
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