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One the whole I thought both races were rather substandard in event on the day. New Approach and Henrythenavigator were obviously clearly the best 2 horses and would probably finish further clear on a different day, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the runner-up was a bit below his Dewhurst form. The proximity of Stubbs Art and Dream Eater mean the race cannot be rated too highly, I can accept the third improving appreciably after settling better in better company but it’s difficult to fathom why Dream Eater would have stepped up appreciably. On the whole the first 2 will have little difficulty confirming the form with those behind wherever down the line at 8f and beyond.
Glad to hear that Gosden is planning Jersey Stakes and a sprint campaign for Ravens Pass.
I was rather underwhelmed with the Fillies equivalent too and think the bunched finish suggests it was an ordinary race. I have mixed views as to whether the best filly won. Natagora is an uncomplicated ride and is never likely to run into the trafic problems like her rivals and that will always count for something but based on her run today, it would be no surprise to see Nahoodh improve past her later in the season, particularly considering she had a poorer prep and has had less racing. Spacious too looks like she’ll do better later in the year but I think that might be as good as what Infallible is at 1m.
I wasn’t the only one to notice but Jim Bolger will surely be thinking 10f+ with Lush Lashes and she ran a cracker considering it was just her third run. It would come as no surprise to me if she ends up rated the highest of them all come the end of the year.
I honestly expected better of Natagora and can concede that, whilst she got the mile extremely well, she may prove far better allowed to make all, at a decent pace, over shorter.
Nahoodh was clearly the one to take out of the race, having travelled supremely well only to fall foul of the handicap that is Richard Hughes. Finding a pocket on the rail can sometimes be considered a hard luck story, but when the horse is aimed at it whilst the filly she’s tracking (Saorsie Abu) finds plenty of room on the outside, then I find it hard to blame anyone but the pilot.
I would be interested to hear Mick Channon’s view of the ride, and just what might have been (I have no doubt whatsoever that she’d have won).
I think the 2000 Guineas was relatively uninspiring, but I would expect the first two to go on from that during the course of the season. I’m firmly of the opinion that Kevin Manning should have set a more searching pace aboard New Approach and would back him 99 times out of 100 to reverse the form with the winner. He (New Approach) looks as though he’ll get ten furlongs without much trouble too.
Of those in behind, only Raven’s Pass and Ibn Khaldun will be of any real interest (Stimulation was extremely disappointing, as was the tempered effort of Alfathaa) for the future. The former obviously has to drop down in trip and be ridden far more prominently, whilst the latter has to be given chance to acclimatise before being thrown in to ‘top class’ races. He looked rapidly progressive at the end of last season and I can’t believe that Godolphin has finished him off already.
Can only agree with David Re: the 1000 Guineas, the bunch finish would strongly suggest that the fillies crop this year is ordinary. Perhaps worth noting that the race only clocked a time marginally faster than the 2000 despite the apparently faster ground and lack of such a strong headwind.
I didn’t catch Lush Lashes running on, so for me the Oaks horse that jumped out was Spacious. She travelled well but just couldn’t quicken sufficiently off the mediocre pace, and she was staying on as well as anything in the principles come the finish. However, breeding doesn’t suggest 12f will be her game which is the main concern. Nahoodh was desperately unlucky and will be one to watch, but her misfortune hardly went unnoticed and from a betting point of view little to no advantage will be gained.Totall agree about Nahoodh – I have no doubts she would have won granted a clear run. I have only had the briefest of glimpses at the head on but side on it looked a bad run.
Afterwards Richard Hughes admitted he expected the other runners to move out when the crowd roared –
“I then ran into the back of the winner. Nine times out of 10 they would have come off the rail when they heard the crowd and I was banking on them doing that as I couldn’t go round the field.[/color:3hoqu03b]
It’s one of those riding decisions that is lauded when it comes off but leads to the jockey being mullered when it doesn’t.
Lush Lashes was the only other one to impress this afternoon.
1. Why did a Ballydoyle horse that had been beaten previously just 3 lengths by the favourite on totally unsutiable ground, who broke the track record at Ascot and had a mile in his pedigree go off at 8 times the price of the favourite?
2. New Approach is an out and out galloper, he’ll be better over further and I’m beginning to understand why Bolger doesn’t want to run him at Epsom.
3. Fast Company on yesterdays form with his turn of foot would have been close (assuming he has trained on) and may well prove to be Godolphins best 3yo this season.
4. The fancied horses in behind are short of being top class.
5. Why was Natagora a horse with a slight question about her stamina allowed an easy lead at a pace she liked?
6. Why were the Cheveley Park horses allowed to be dropped in then pull their chances away with this reason then given for their subsequent defeat?
7. Nahoodh and Spacious were impressive but how impressive given the pace?
8. Godolphin need to seriously re evaluate their Dubai / UK schedule.
9. A touch of speed is priceless to a potential Guineas winner.
10. Sheikh Mohamed is probably seething
wouldnt disagree with the 1000 guineas commenst but if Henry was a bit undercooked (as has been suggested) then the victory was possibly quite special.
Im never overly concerned about proximities of well beaten outsiders myself. Sometimes thats just a reflection of how the race unfolds rather than something to be taken literally
The front two in the 2000Guineas pulled 4 Lengths clear of the third and fourth, who also pulled a further 3 1/2 Lengths clear of the unexposed Moynahan in sixth.
The form is hard to evaluate due to the presence of one horse, Stubbs Art. Dream Eater’s fifth does not dilute the strength of the form. Despite running in some competitve and large fields as a juvenile, he was never beaten further than 5 Lengths, nor did he finish outside the first six. There’s a decent prize to be won with him as a 3YO and you’d expect him and Raven’s Pass, who also boasted top class form, to line up in the Jersey Stakes.
The front two are obviously a class above over this distance, but it wouldn’t surprise, indeed I expect, both Dream Eater and Raven’s Pass to be thereabouts in the Jersey. Moynahan should improve for the experience and a step up in trip, so I’d also expect him to run a big race in the Dante. The likes of Stimulation, Strike The Deal and Ibn Khaldun are all capable of better.
Henrythenavigator should continue to compete over the mile and will prove hard to beat, even against the older horses. He holds entries in races between 5 – 12 furlongs. New Approach will be tough to beat between 10 – 12 furlongs and will be the one to beat in the Irish 2000 before stepping up in trip for the Irish Derby.The 1000Guineas is also hard to evaluate. There were no surprise packages in the first six, but they did finish awfully close.
Natagora held obvious claims after winning six-from-eight as a 2YO, culminating in her Cheveley Park triumph and only had her stamina to prove. She made it a proper race. The runner-up Spacious was two-from-two as a Juvenile and very much unexposed. The third home, Saoirse Abu already had two Group Ones to her name, including the Phoenix Stakes where she defeated 2000Guineas winner Henrythenavigator and found further improvement on the better ground. Impressive Nell Gwyn winner, Infallible (also unbeaten in two starts) ran a respectable race without staying to finish fourth, while Nahoodh, who boasted the best juvenile form, had ticks in all the right boxes and was incredibly unlucky back in fifth. Goffs Million heroine Lush Lashes finished a creditable sixth and will surely be better over further.
I’d expect Natagora, Spacious, Saoirse Abu and Nahoodh to support the Guineas form with big runs in the Irish equivalent and then later in the Coronation at Royal Ascot, before tackling the older horses. Even though she is yet to run over the trip, Infallible travelled so well before tiring a furlong from home that you would expect her to be a serious contender in the major six furlong contests.
Both Lush Lashes and Muthabara will be better suited by further and Lush Lashes, by Galileo, could be a strong contender for the Oaks. The latter is sure to improve, too. She was three-from-three before today, where everything eventually went against her.
A far stronger bunch than last year and I think both races will produce a number of winners. Even though the fillies finished in a bunch, with the excepton of the first two home in the colts equivalent, I think they just have the edge.
Hughes opined that in 9 cases out of 10, the field would have moved away from the rail sufficiently, when they heard the raor of the crowd.
If so, I think Hughes was desperatey unlucky, because his eventually- thwarted challenge was timed to perfection, and Natagora’s courage could not have been brought into play again.
The impression I had, on the face of it, was that so swift was Nahood moving forward before she was baulked, she was the faster horse over that mile. But I’m not sure that, if all things were equal, and each were to follow precisely the same path (impossible in the same race of course, in reality) and have the identical immediate environment, she would necessarily beat Natagora.
At present, I don’t subscribe to the notion that the race falls short of a decent standard. The Baldings are no novices to the big time, and I doubt if Andrew would have spoken so highly of Dream Eater without hearing his father’s opinion; Spacious was leaving Cesare for dead on the gallops, within a few strides.
On the other hand, the time – on similar going – was, I believe, about 4 seconds slower that Finsceal Beo’s. Had Spacious, maybe Nahood or one of the others been able to share the lead without a mutual cutting of throats, had their connections dared to risk it, perhaps the outcome would have been different.
A lot of imponderables, and I’ve doubtless drawn some wrong conclusions, but they’re a few reflections of mine, such as they are.
PS:
I seem to have got a wee bit muddled up with Dream Eater, what with him running in the 2000!
Thought the 2,000 guineas was very good, New Approach ran a brilliant race from the front, proving that he has trained on, is still as potent as ever, and in running very composed from the front that his temperament appears to have improved. I would love to see him go to the Prix Du Jockey Club and the Eclipse but dont think that will happen. If campaigned well I think New Approach could be a great in the making.
Henrythenavigator looked like the King Best to New Approach’s giants causeway, and I have a strong feeling that he wont live up to the form of yesterdays run next time out, but think he ran a brilliant race on the day.
Dont know what to make of Ravens Pass as despite being pricewised yesterday he was a big negative for most of the day, and couldnt help but think he never ran as well as he could have done. Ground reports last week hinted to the worst ground being in the last two furlongs, and that was where New Approach kicked clear to claim the race, but Ravens Pass was really far back at that point and had a hell of a task and he looked to be moving well relevant to the rest of the field without ever getting closer to the front two which is what makes me think the front two have ran a brilliant race.
The 1,000 guineas was a weak renewal but there are enough to take out of the race. Natagora has won tactically and theres no reason why if she is allowed to dictate she wont be able to do the same again in similar company.
Spacious looked a complete miler IMO she made ground coming down the hill and possibly entered into battle with Natagora to early, she may have more to give as she is only just out of her winter coat and think she would have done better with a better all round clip, but think the same about Saoirse Abu, looking at her I think that Kevin Manning wanted to avoid a battle and to just drop her on the line and he birsdeye view he only just looked to have mistimed it, she has run her usual honest race and the blinkers appear to work for her. Nahood looked at the top of her game today and would have won without traffic problems, how she would be at a stronger clip I dont know as she looked like she never got the chance to run her race and looked to finish with a full tank. If there is anything there that may be capable of drawing sewat from Zarkava at Ascot I would think it would be one of those 4.
Lush Lashes has run brilliantly and looks like a pretty polly/nassau horse and possibly an oaks horse, would think bolger will go to the oaks with her as he did with Pictavia in 2005, and she certainly looks exciting in that context.
One who will not be to everyones liking but who I will give another chance to is muthabara who has had nothing go right for her in her prep. She has looked to be short of good enough at the raising of the tempo in her last two races, but that may be down to her coat She should be a good price next time out as nannina was when in a similar predicament two years ago. If she were to have a good prep before the irish guineas I would back her, and possibly infallible and savethisdanceforme on softer underfoot conditions. I have always thought that Kitty Matcham looked more of an oaks sort and wheras she has not quickened like Lush lashes today she may have more upped in trip.
Overall though I think that the 1,000 was not that strong, and suspect that Royer Dupre was pleased with what he saw today. But with several fillies late to come to hand this year, there may be more to come, and I wouldnt trust the form to the letter.
Despite not hitting the winner in either guineas, I have found it a very enjoyable meeting and hopefully those that were not enjoying the flat up until now have been picked up by the good racing that there has been this weekend.
Another positive point to take from the race, if I was Tabor, Magnier or Shiekh Mohammed, I would really want Natagora as a broodmare as she has some serious battling qualities about her and looks to dig very deep in her races.
9. A touch of speed is priceless to a potential Guineas winner.
Can I hear an "Amen!"
Aidan O’Brien still has Henrythenavigator amongst entries in the Coral-Eclipse. Then again, there are 35 others from the same barn.
The 1,000 Guineas will all be thumped by Zarkava at Royal Ascot.
Because New Approach dominated the 2YO scene last year and Rio De La Plata and Fast Company were absent, it left too much of a gaping hole for form from the 2,000 Guineas for mine. That Raven’s Pass is heading to sprints and New Approach clearly wants further is a huge concern to Henrythenavigator’s form coming out of the race.
But hey – I’ll take the money and run.
Quite reasonable Classics this year even though some of the horses will probably only run another 3-5 times before being shipped off to stud.
Still cannot understand why Sheikh Mo ships his horses off to Dubai in the winter as it does not seem to help other than give his horses no chance in the Guineas and if when as yearlings some horses handle UK winters no problem at all does he fell the need to shift them through a lot of travelling to a totally different climate.
Spacious who was 2nd in the 1000 will probably do better being upped in trip and could be ideal for the Nassau but myself i always think that 2yo who win over 1m will need further than that at 3 and being by Nayef will be ideal over 1m2f.
The same can be said for Ibn Khaldun for Godolphin who may have ran a wee bit flat but as i said a winner of 1m at 2 so will need further and hopefully will improve upped in distance.
As for Henrythenavigator he looks like quality and will prob be kept on the go all season with the BC Mile or Classic his main aim aswell asgoing for the likes of the St James Palace,Eclipse,Sussex Stakes,Internation and Q.E.II Stakes as his main targets.
Id be quite keen to go against henry the navigator next time. When you look at O’briens guineas horses of the last four years and their next race form it doesnt provide great enthusiasm, as he looks to have them tuned to the second for their guineas target and not usually the next time.
Antonius Pius – Brilliant before hitting the fence at longchamp, flattened out quite poorly at ascot.
Footstepsinthesand – Not seen again
Virgina Waters – the last o’brien guineas winner by kingmambo, never hit that level of form ever again.
George Washington – Brilliant at newmarket and although there were excuses in the irish guineas he wasnt the same hosre and was beaten by a horse less briiliant.
Aussie Rules and Marcus Andronicus – The poulains 1,2 never ran to the same form next tiem out and were both easily beaten in their target races.
Duke Of Marmalade – Ran well at newmarket but never looked nearly as good in the irish equivalent next time out, and didnt really look race fit.
On a more positive note though astronomer royal and excellent art (having not had the hardest of races and having a month to recouperate) held their poulains form last year at ascot.
Kings Best – the last Kingmambo to win the 2000 Guineas (very impressively at that) only raced once after and was pulled up and retired.
Henry doesnt look like the sort to me to break the trend. I have always found that Kingmambo’s colts are largely highly strung and inconsistent, obviously not ddetroit city, rule of law etc. and henry looked like that last year. If he is going to irish guineas against new approach once again I would be on the ever consistent new approach who was coming back at henry at the death, and on ground with more cut he would look the better bet with them both priced 2-1 a piece.
Of course in legal terms this evidence is purely circumstantial, but intersting nevertheless.
I tend to agree with the seemingly general concensus that neither Guineas was a particularly good one. The colts classic I have on a par with Cockney Rebel’s 2000 last year but there was no superstar miler in that event, no George Washington or better.
The fillies winning performance I’d say is two or three pounds below Finsceal Beo’s performance last year although I haven’t rated the race yet.
Interestingly both Guineas look possibilities to throw up top horses at different trips. New Approach and Spacious may appreciate further, Raven’s Pass and Infallible may prefer a drop in trip. There may be some very, very good horses to come out of the race but I don’t think there are any outstanding milers.
I’m not so certain Mich Channon’s filly would’ve won you know. It always looks that way with hard luck stories but having seen the replay she’d have gone close but I’m not certain she’s have beaten the winner.
Aidan is reported to have said (in an Irish Independent article) that he might send Henry to the English Derby as Coolmore regard it as the biggest prise in racing! Seems to contradict Jim B ?
Aidan is reported to have said (in an Irish Independent article) that he might send Henry to the English Derby as Coolmore regard it as the biggest prise in racing! Seems to contradict Jim B ?
Jim Bolger is talking nonsense though there’s more to it than meets the eye.
Henrythenavigator is by Kingmambo out of a Sadlers Well’s mare I’d say he’ll get ten furlongs but twelve is pushing it IMO.
Anyway don’t know why he’s bothering we all know Twice Over will win the Derby despite what Fist says.
RPR have Henry running to 123 to win the Guineas which is relatively low. I get his performance to 125. On RUK yesterday they were talking about the official handicapper rating it at around 114 given the proximity of the horses that finished third and fifth and taking into account Henry’s previous best form. That seems a ridiculously low rating to me. Wondering what sort of mark others have the winner running to?
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