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Gosdens horses generally ran very well at the Craven meeting, but there were alot of horses not trained to 100% for their first races. Who’s to say Raven’s Pass was not near his absolute peak for the Craven, it would have been logical to leave some improvement, but who really knows. In fact you could argue a similar case for some big name horses at this weekends guineas meeting as well.
A theory I was considering in the run up to the race, it is hard to say as neither Ravens Pass or Infallible got their ground but nevertheless, Ravens Pass’s optimal ground would have been much closer to the Guineas ground than the ground in the craven, and he has regressed. Infallible looks to have failed to run to her rating only marginally but then she was over a further furlong and on less suitable ground and that would be a big factor.
My opinion is that Gosden has had a good early run with his horses being much further ahead and has had them as good as he can get them in april, It has given him no shortage of publicity, and many people the racing media have been going on about his chances. He was 250-1 to win all 4 classics and even money not to win any a week ago.
His filly Dar Re Mi threw in a faultless 97 rated performance in a class4 3yo maiden (most of the field, for reasons x,y or z having not been raced at 2) and was promoted straight into favoritism for the Oaks. Some boookmakers still have her shorter than Chinese White who through in a ring rusty 108 rated performance yesterday when visibly carrying a lot of condition, and all of them have her shorter than Lush Lashes whose guineas run yesterday was far more impressive.
As for centennial, he had to dig deep to win a rather poor looking (as it usually is) Sandown Classic Trial and is as low as 8-1 For Epsom on the back of it
If you saw Raven’s Pass on quick ground at Ascot & Sandown last year
Better on a turning track maybe? More chance of staying the mile?
Wonder if he might be suited by the sussex
I was thinking along those lines Clive. In fact, I was thinking of the St.James Palace at Ascot when I was writing. Likely fast ground, round a turn & a shortish straight, but thought it best not to dig myself in too deep by mentioning it, too late now.
The problem is, without trying to backtrack, imo RP could run a blinder in a race like that, or the Sussex & still not necessarily win. Would he ever beat Henrythenavigator over a mile on quick ground, especially if it’s correct that he was not at his absolute peak in the 2000gns.
Agree colin..and i think some (including me previously) are underestimating henry’s chances this year
I always think (although im guessing away perhaps) that the open straight mile at newmarket takes a bit more getting than some tracks
TRF seems divided regarding the best trip for the Gosden pair Infallible and Raven’s Pass. I’d be inclined to give RP another shout over the mile. I share the opinion of many that the horse probably didn’t stay, but given the position he came from, he’s worth another chance at the trip.
On the other hand, Infallible was given every chance. She travelled better than just about any other horse in the race, cruised into contention to win the race before tiring a furlong out. Looking at the way she travelled in the Guineas and the acceleration she produced in the Nell Gwyn to come from last to first in a slowly run race, you’d think that a strongly run 6F would be ideal.
I seem to be in the minority regarding the 1000. I think, horse for horse, the fillies have the edge this year.
NATAGORA – six from eight as a juvenile. Cheveley Park winner.
SPACIOUS – two for two. Unexposed winner of the May Hill.
SAOIRSE ABU – dual Group 1 winner. Defeated Henrythenavigator.
INFALLIBLE – two for two. Unexposed winner of the Nell Gwyn.
NAHOODH – best juvenile form in the field when winning the Lowther.
LUSH LASHES – unexposed winner of the Goffs Million. Oaks fancy.The 2000 wasn’t a weak renewal, either. The front two look very good and I’d expect Raven’s Pass, Dream Eater and Moynahan to win some decent races in the future, while Stubb’s Art is still an unknown quantity.
Personally, I think the 3YOs could have the edge in races between 6 – 10 Furlongs, but I’d expect the older horses to dominate over 12.
Ravens Pass didnt win the Guineas because he wasn’t bred to do so…ran well for a sprinter.
New Approach didn’t win because he wasn’t bred to do so either.This breeding must be a very exact science if a short head means you weren’t bred for the job….
New Approach only lost on the nod, Running Rein. And the first two looked very good to me. For what that’s worth.
But in any case, breeding is wonderful endorsement of other proven merits, even a worthwhile indicator, but in that capacity it can never be more than that. It’s not an exact science by any means.
Touche, Carv! Why can’t I express myself as pithily…?
A snippet I saw the other day I found very interesting was that Gerry Oldham, a top owner of yesteryear, as I recall, is talking quite excitedly (from France was it?) about his mare, Albisola, as a possible Oaks winner, after a relatively barren period in the big time, I believe it was intimated, in relation to his horses over here.
Though it’s not yet decided whether it will be the Epsom Oaks or another one, I got the feeling, rightly or wrongly, he leans strongly towards it. He evidently really rates the horse, and I’ve nibbled at it at 85s on Betfair.
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The 2000 Guineas looked fairly strong to me. New Approach can have no excuses whatsoever for getting beaten – he had the perfect trip and Henrythenavigator was a deserving winner. The horse to take out of the race is Raven’s Pass who did extremely well to finish where he did given his position after a furlong. He will win the Jersey Stakes and will be a massive danger to Sakhee’s Secret in the July Cup.
Dear oh dear, TDK!
“The 2000 Guineas looks strong, New Approach can have no excuses whatsoever for getting beaten“, yet a horse you see as a sprinter finishes 4th?
Imo, given that most of the field were off the bridle 2 out off such an ordinary pace, and a handicapper in 3rd place, I’d be surprised if anything outside the first 2 feature in anything worthwhile this season.Having analysed Sunday’s card, my time rating for Natagora is 96 against the current RPR of 113 – a most disappointing figure for a Group 1. On this evidence, it’s impossible to say as yet whether Natagora truly stays a mile.
Another example, though, of some poor riding amongst the also rans. A filly with possible stamina doubts allowed to dictate the race on her own / jockeys terms, whilst those with guaranteed stamina who finished behind are left to rue their chances.
Let’s hope more enterprise is shown in any re-matches that may occur.
Totally agree about Natagora staying or not, as I said in the build up, she reminds me of Attraction in that she probably barely stays but her class kept her going when the petrol gauge read empty. I also think Spacious will imporve past her, definitely over 1m and further, but take nothing away from her, he was the best 2 year old (all her form was rock solid including twice against the colts) filly andwas best on the day in the Guineas.
RH – New Approach had a considerable advantage over the entire field in the way the race developed – holding every chance with an uncontested lead on the rail from an early stage. Even if he would have been suited by a slightly faster pace, it would be wrong to think he was in anyway "unlucky" to get beaten – he had every possible chance to win if good enough -and he wasn’t.
Attraction didn’t stay 1m properly? She won 5 Group 1’s over the distance.
Why does popular consensus say that hanging on to win by a diminishing margin from the front mean you barely stay but delaying your efforts too late and closing at the death equates to being a thourough stayer and possibly needing further?
Makes no sense to me, Attraction was surely a specialist miler.
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