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Is this a walkover? Will Frankel cruise home?.
Maybe not, depending on how you look at it.
Lets assume that he’s only 90% fit anf adjust his official rating accordingly and assume that Strong Suit is fully fit for this race.
Then they look quite close.Lets look at what Henry Cecil’s horses did at the Craven meeting, not a lot.
Hannon has had winners there and today at Newbury.
What about the breeding of these 2 colts, it’s possible that Frankel actually needs further than 8f now, he could be a Derby winner rather than a Guineas winner although Northern Dancer duplications could supress stamina and enhance speed.
Strong Suit could be an 8f to 10f colt and stepping up from 6f to 7f on firm ground might be right for him.
Perhaps tomorrow I’ll have egg on my face but I do not think it’s a forgone conclusion.
What do you experts think?
I’m no expert, but Frankel’s 4/11 looks rather skinny for the reasons you suggest.
Frankel is about 13 pounds better off than Strong Suit, who is in turn about 13 pounds better off than the other 4, the exact difference depending on whose rating you use. So it should be a procession but on firm ground with a possibly tactical running of the race anything could happen.
The tactics could be interesting because both Frankel and Strong Suit were held up in their last race. I guess one of the 4 outsiders will take up the running and Frankel will take over in the final furlong. I am not sure what Ryan Moore on the Hannon second string will do. Possibly he will try for third place.
This may be an opportunity to take advantage of the B.O.G. Take the 4/11 with a BOG firm like Paddy Power then lay on the exchange at the same odds (1.36). Then hope the Frankel odds drift and he goes off at say 1/2 . Then if he wins you are 14% ahead and if he loses you are 5% behind after commission.
Alternatively you could back SS each way. If you can get 4/1 then a place is evens which is good value versus exchange place odds of about 1.65. But there must be a danger that SS challenges for the lead, is burnt off by Frankel and flops in the last furlong.
Why has Frankel got a pacemaker tomorrow? Never needed one before…can’t possibly entertain the thought of a Galileo Dewhurst winner beating a fresh Coventry winner. Granted Strong Suit’s not brilliant, and maybe a question mark over him training on (Rahy horses don’t progress that much from 2 to 3 sometimes), but worth a chance.
the only reason it is the price it is for the guineas is not only its current form, but the hype we have created for it. ante post bets must be immense. im pretty sure it will demolish tommorows field, and imo go on to win the guineas. soft ground or not, it will be dream ahead and whatever other horses turn up for the ground.
The P.A. article suggests Picture Editor will set the pace as they want Frankel to do a good gallop. This would also minimise the chances of SS having enough energy left to catch Frankel in the closing stages.
Just have a strange feeling that Strong Suit will stalk Frankel and pick him off, if he is ever to lose, it will be here.
Picture Editor looks like an out and out stayer………can he go fast enough to set a decent pace or is the idea that he’ll set a slow pace to bring Frankel’s turn of foot into play ?
Hannon’s second string looks like a nutcase front runner……..I don’t think Picture Editor will get anywhere near the front
I reckon hannon’s tactics are for the pacemaker to blast off and hope to take the kick out of a possibly unfit Frankel
ps Hannon’s second string won this last year !
My main bet’s a Frankel-Vanguard Dream SFC (have changed my mind many, many times about this race now…) and done it the other way for a smaller stake, just incase. Picture Editor won’t be able to go fast enough or even get in front, Strong Suit won’t stay or be good enough, forgot the Botti and Hills horses, Vanguard Dream to get the lead and only Strong Suit will be able to overtake him in the final 2 furlongs, bar the favourite obviously.
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Lets look at what Henry Cecil’s horses did at the Craven meeting, not a lot
I watched them very closely. "A good turn of foot but a run short" would describe a few of the better performances well. I think this is Strong Suit’s "Guineas" today. His only ever chance to overturn Frankel for mine …….If Strong Suit’s trained on. I don’t have those concerns about Frankel ( training on ) but fitness today is a genuine concern.
A small lay Frankel for me. I can see him losing this and winning the Guineas. I can’t help thinking about the Cecil trained filly that was first past the post last year in her Guineas. Jacquiline Quest improved significantly from her prep race. She showed a significant turn of foot prior to fading late in her prep race as well.
Food for thought.
As I’m a huge fan of HRAC and slightly twitchy
after his first few runners this season I’m hoping his season kicks off today with Frankel winning like a good thingMy main bet’s a Frankel-Vanguard Dream SFC (have changed my mind many, many times about this race now…) and done it the other way for a smaller stake, just incase. Picture Editor won’t be able to go fast enough or even get in front, Strong Suit won’t stay or be good enough, forgot the Botti and Hills horses, Vanguard Dream to get the lead and only Strong Suit will be able to overtake him in the final 2 furlongs, bar the favourite obviously.
There goes the value!
Vanguard Dream, because it can, the price doesn’t match the chance, big favourites get turned over … make that a reversed forecast.
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I hope Strong Suit wins today.
Hannon thinks he’ll get a mile and I’ve had a little bet for the Guineas.
All this "Frankel is a miler", "he’s a derby horse", "we’re entering him over 7f". Seriously, they either have no clue or no respect for punters, you choose.
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Do you know how excited I am about Frankel running, I just hope he puts all the doubters to bed.
One of my favourite horses most definatly.
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A wonderful paddock full of specimens. I’m reluctant to use such a phrase but Frankel is a really cool dude!
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BEAAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTT
Wins Guineas by 10l
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I’m yet to see Frankel run in a race where everything suits him. Today they crawled out of the stalls and he pulled Queally’s arms off until he allowed the horse to track Picture Editor. Picture Editor then couldn’t go fast enough for him but still Frankel won easily despite looking a fraction rusty. A faster gallop will suit him, a further trip will suit him.
As far as trials go that was pretty much perfect.
after his first few runners this season I’m hoping his season kicks off today with Frankel winning like a good thing
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