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That is a very fair assessment Steve, he simply did not stay. A few bubbles were burst today, mine included having taken the 33s for the Guineas, such are the risks when backing maiden winners. 8/1 looks skinny enough for the Commonwealth, even though he could well prove to be a high class sprinter, although he will still need to settle better or risk getting picked off at the finish.
Barney Roy looked like he’d get the extra furlong no problem, and the 6/1 on offer against the 6.0 on the machine represents a tiny bit of edge, so I have a small saver on.
Hey ho I must be seeing something nobody else did as the third wasn’t gaining on him at all to indicate that he was a non stayer and for me the energy he wasted for the first 2-3F meant he just got tired in the final furlong and it cost him – you simply can’t pull that hard and expect to win at the top level unless you are Dream Castle’s daddy.
Hopefully, he will be better/wiser for having his first real race and will learn to distribute his energy much more efficiently going forward and being only his second lifetime run I am willing to bet there is more improvement to come having had this experience.
Yeah sorry guys I may have overreacted yesterday, I enjoy posting on here,
now the smoke has cleared I’m not so sure, personally I don’t think O’Brien will be trembling in his boots having watched the trials.
Churchill still potentially the horse to beat.
The interesting thing is that now Churchill has to prove himself against rivals he didn’t face last season in Eminent and Barney Roy who arguably could be open to much more improvement experience wise and have the added advantage of actually being race fit.
O’Brien we know is capable of producing them first time out to win a classic but his form is also a major worry for me as although the horses he raced over here may not be as good as Churchill, they were not second tier horses and with one exception they have all run lamentably badly – we are all assuming that being a Galileo he will train on but again this time last year there was no thought that AIr Force Blue wouldn’t just continue on from where he left off in his 2 yr old season and we all know how that turned out.
Yes Churchill is the one to beat on last seasons form but a whole hell of a lot can happen from 2 to 3 and at this stage I am happy to oppose him until he proves me wrong.
I think it’s too early to start pigeonholing Dream Castle. I think he’s earned a chance at the French or Irish Guineas and if he shows he clearly doesn’t stay then there is plenty of time to recuperate and aim him at the Commonwealth or Jersey.
The first two are very, very good horses. They put daylight between themselves and a decent horse in Zainhom who like most of Stoute’s needed the run.
Yeah sorry guys I may have overreacted yesterday, I enjoy posting on here,
now the smoke has cleared I’m not so sure, personally I don’t think O’Brien will be trembling in his boots having watched the trials.
Churchill still potentially the horse to beat.
I’m looking forward to actually seeing him judge to ascertain what we’re all up against, he could be anything and Aiden O’Brien likes nothing better than to bring one over fit and ready to steal the Guineas, good luck with him.
Personally wouldn’t go too much on those sectional timings and things (think it might have been mentioned on another Thread) especially at The Craven meeting last week where there was a strong tailwind giving inflated finishing times all round, I have sometimes tried to work out races that way but gave up ages ago and just use my eyes now..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Yeah the sectional things is overblown I think. Sometimes it can be useful, like I recall a few years ago when Ibn Khaldun looked a serious contender for the guineas after he won the racing post trophy in seemingly brilliant style, however a rough timing of his final two furlongs of that race suggested to me he wasn’t in the same class as New approach or Henry the navigator, and so it proved, and I think if I had just gone with the visual perception I would have put the mortgage on.
The same was the case with Emotionless when he won the champagne stakes at doncaster, and he got hyped up to the hilt by the racing media, but the time was slow, and the horse turned out to be slow as well. So sectionals certainly have their place, and you need to use them well.
I think yesterday backed up what I was saying about Dream castle doing good sectionals to some extent, as at one point in the race he looked brilliantly fast.
As for Churchill, to me I wouldn’t be too concerned if I was backing him as he just sounds like a guineas winner, and he gets the head down and battles which makes him very tough to beat, he strikes me as the sort of horse you can put your bank on without any concerns, anyway we’ll see.
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