- This topic has 9 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 8 months ago by
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- Posts
my ratings
138 patkai
136 top lock
135 alessandro volta
133 bashkirov
131 centennial
129 scintillo
127 meydan citywill back patkai to win
- Total Posts 17716
It might sound like a daft question Tenbob, but why would anyone with enough application to form their own ratings want to back a horse rated with so little in hand, on ground he has never run on?
It might sound like a daft question Tenbob, but why would anyone with enough application to form their own ratings want to back a horse rated with so little in hand, on ground he has never run on?
not a daft question its just i concentrate on group 1 and 2 races only useing an old computer program and back the top rated and best value in top three.
for the last 5 years i have come out in profit.
if only i was deciplined enough to stay away from all other wagersDifficult this one (aren’t they all?)
I’ve pushed out Centennial and Meydan City in my ‘book.’ Though Godolphin seem to pull out a few of their horses when the going is desperate so whether that one runs I don’t know.
There was a story today, somewhere, about Stoute withdrawing the favourite if the ground was terrible. Patkai has a very stange profile. Coming back in trip after the win at Ascot is unusual ( I think.) He got beat on good-soft at the start of the season but I take the view that horses will act on the going unless proven otherwise.
Alessandro’s run in the Irish Derby is the best form (in my opinion) of any in the race, but was below par last time in France. Again unknown regarding the ground. It’s interesting that another poster on another thread said he spoke to Andrew Balding about the German Derby run of Top Lock, with the trainer saying that Top Lock was disadvantaged by the ground. It’s an interesting point, but that close third in a G1 is good form, and didn’t the 1st or 2nd finish ahead of Papal Bull at the weekend? However his run at Goodwood wasn’t inspiring.
Centennial doesn’t interest me, so I’m looking for about 3/1 Alessandro, if not I’ll back Top Lock.
I reckon Meydan City is big at Ladbrokes 9/1: For all their caution he has more chance of acting on tomorrow’s ground than most of this field. if he runs I don’t see him being that price.
Agree, Carvillshill. At that price, he looks an attractive bet. But, assuming Patkai isn’t too inconvenienced by the heavy ground, he’ll have to shift to beat PatkaiI. I’m inclined to think they’ll be one and two, in whatever order. We’ll see.
It’s interesting that another poster on another thread said he spoke to Andrew Balding about the German Derby run of Top Lock, with the trainer saying that Top Lock was disadvantaged by the ground. It’s an interesting point, but that close third in a G1 is good form, and didn’t the 1st or 2nd finish ahead of Papal Bull at the weekend? However his run at Goodwood wasn’t inspiring.
Yep, that was me – I saw Andrew at Hamburg, and believe me, that was one heck of a rainstorm that enveloped the course just as the runners were going down to the start, and Andrew said that it did get into the ground and made a difference. However, as RoF points out, the winner of the German Derby, Kamsin, was second in the Rheinland Pokal on Sunday ahead of Papal Bull, although Ryan Moore said he thought the Papal Bull was unsuited by the sharp bends (I’ve been to Cologne a few time myself, and I don’t this it’s that bad at all actually). Apart from that, King of Rome (6th in the German Derby, well behind Top Lock) won a decent race in Ireland at the weekend, and Satier (5th in the German Derby) won a decent Listed race a few weeks back, so the form is certainly there. I just have reservations about the ground. Fact is though, is anything in the race certain to go in the ground? If not, we could end up with the entire field requiring decent ground, splodging their way up the home straight! OK, Top Lock probably won’t act on the ground, but if nothing else does either, it could be a level (and rather muddy!!) playing field.
Darren – AngloGerman
Sorry for not giving your name Darren, I was pretty sure you posted the comment.
It’s strange to hear a trainer say that a horse didn’t like the ground despite the said horse posting his best effort to date. Anyway I don’t like criticising Balding he seems thoroughly decent.
Even though we’re not getting the juicy 9/1 of earlier in the week, Meydan City still looks value at 9/2 to me- Patkai looks vulnerable at the trip in potentially a tactical race. I’m betting he gets beat today and makes my Leger lay look a bit healthier.
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