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Gonna have to strongly disagree with your post there. First of all if the jockey had delayed his effort longer Planteur would have won that cosily. Four Furlongs out was way too soon.
Workforce has little chance even if he goes for the Arc. Think of the huge amount of high class animals his trainer has handled over middle distances – how many of them have won the Arc? None. That is no coincidence – he just doesn’t prioritise the race. He has two live candidates for Paris in October in his stable right now and what does he do – runs them both in the King George. Oh dear.
As good as Workforce is I can’t have him for the race – and Sea the Stars was nowhere near the price Workforce is for the race at this time last year. It was generally felt he wouldn’t be targeted there.personally i think that if SNA is ready pretty soon and wins/runs in a race before the Arc, i think its still a major player. That will be my banker!
I think it is difficult to be so confident as to say a horse would definitely have won a race had the jockey employed different tactics. I can see your point, but the tactics applied on Planteur on Wednesday were in stark contrast to the Prix du Jockey Club ones where he sat very handy. This time he was held up off the pace and imo was close enoughif good enough at the end. I still think he was simply outstayed and will struggle to see out 12 furlongs in a truly run Arc.
Moving onto Stoute. I think it is slightly remiss to generalise about all of his middle distance horses simply not being targeted at the Arc suggesting this explains why he has never won an Arc.
Arguably his best 3yo colt was Shergar – he never ran in the Arc because he had been retired due to a poor showing in the Leger. This is not to say he was not targeted at the Arc, however you can hardly wrap horses in cotton wool for the whole year – you simply have to run them and for any potentially top class 3yo the Arc, due to its late position in the calendar will always come as something of an afterthought.
That said, it is on record that Shergar drifted on the day of the Leger, rumours had abounded he had lost his early season magic at home, and the reversal of from with Glint of Gold from Epsom to Doncaster bore this out. The Arc was his initial stated target following his Curragh win so the inclusion of the Leger in the programme was possibly an admission on the part of connections that the horse was on a decline. Retiring him without trying to recapture his form in the Arc seems to prove this.
Since then Stoute has had 22 Arc runners. Whilst it is fair to say a lot of his older horses have had busy campaigns at the end of which the Arc has seemed an afterthought (Opera House 93, Ezzoud 93 and 94, never won beyond 10f anyhow, and Pilsudki in 96/97) I am not comparing Workforce, a lightly raced 3yo with those older horses, and I think it is inaccurate to lump all Stoute’s Arc runners together.
You have to look at the types who have similar profiles to Workforce – ie 3 yo colts. His two 3 yo fillies, Hellenic and Pure Grain bagged as many Oaks/Fillies and Mares Gp 1s as they could before conentrating on the Arc – so yes their main priorities did not include the Arc. Alisya on the other hand had a 3 month prep for the 1989 Arc, probably at the influence of her Francophile owner. Again, conversely, Hellenic was sent to Longchamp after a tough Leger – Arc again an afterthought.
The fairest comparison then is with the 3 year colts good enough to win or be runner up in a Derby, and they are Shergar (who we have already dealt with); Shahrastani in 1986 had already been proven the inferior of the unlucky Derby runner up Dancing Brave – the fact the Aga ran Shardari and Dihistan on their own merits seemed to bear this out. So in this case the Derby winner was not good enough, not a case of his trainer failing to properly prioritise the Arc.
Golan, runner up in the 2001 Derby was actually given a classic Arc prep – summer off following a 3rd place in the Irish Derby and then a prep win in the Niel – as a 3yo he was not mature enough to win an Arc.
Kris Kin too enjoyed a summer off after finishing runner up in the KG, was beaten in the Niel and sent off an unfancied 11/1 in the Arc – basically not good enough.
North Light’s profile is very similar to Workforce – and he was, like Kris Kin given a classic Arc prep – in fact more so as he went straight from a runners up berth at the Curragh to the Arc itself. Again simply not good enough.
I think on this evidence it is fair to actually say Stoute has more often than not actually laid his 3 year old colts out for the Arc, and I believe this will happen with Workforce.
The big question will be is Workforce good enough. We will know more in 8 days time, but one thing for sure is if he wins the KG his Arc odds will be slashed. (Oh and BTW even Conduit last year only had the 3 races prior to the Arc so that can hardly be described as a campaign that failed to prioritise the Arc).
In short it boils down to Stoute not thus far having had a 3 year old colt up to winning an Arc. Shergar was his best hope but never ran. His 3 other Derby winners prior to Workforce were sub-standard Epsom victors with no god given right to expect to win an Arc – in the way for instance Sea The Stars did. And Golan was imo too immature at 3.
and Sea the Stars was nowhere near the price Workforce is for the race at this time last year. quote]
Checked the archive at work today – on July 2nd 2009 (day b4 Eclsipe) STS was 3/1 for the Arc – same sort of price you can get about Workforce now – its only when the 3yo’s actually beat their older rivals that Arc prices start to significantly contract.Surprised anyone is still questioning the ability of Planteur to stay twelve furlongs after his Grand Prix De Paris effort.
I’ve never been convinced that pace has much influence on a horses ability to effectively see out a trip (read the findings of C. Richard Taylor for further info).
Ground, however, can be a major factor. The ground at Longchamp that day was very testing and holding. It placed greater emphasis on stamina and nullified Planteur’s speed – one of his most potent weapons. If he stayed that day he will have no problem on drier ground, regardless of pace.
One look at his action in the closing stages told me he wasn’t stopping and was actually reducing the margin in the closing stages, although the winner wasn’t exactly doing a great deal.
I was always adamamnt that Jan Vermeer would stay twelve furlongs, but his last three starts over the distance have proven otherwise. They were the efforts of a horse who doesn’t stay – Planteur’s effort at Longchamp was not.
The Elie Lellouche-trained colt has the main attributes of an Arc contender – a strong traveller with instant acceleration. However, I have noticed one thing that may see him find one too good against the very best. Whilst he may possess a wonderful turn of foot, he takes time to find top gear after the initial acceleration. Think of a car going from third to fourth in the blink of an eye, but struggling to get into fifth – that’s Planteur. It was his downfall in the Prix Du Jockey Club and behind Behkabad last time.
I’m quite happy with the 25’s I got before Chantilly. I think the colt is progressing nicely and you will see something like the finished article in October.
Surprised anyone is still questioning the ability of Planteur to stay twelve furlongs after his Grand Prix De Paris effort.
I’ve never been convinced that pace has much influence on a horses ability to effectively see out a trip (read the findings of C. Richard Taylor for further info).
Ground, however, can be a major factor. The ground at Longchamp that day was very testing and holding. It placed greater emphasis on stamina and nullified Planteur’s speed – one of his most potent weapons. If he stayed that day he will have no problem on drier ground, regardless of pace.
One look at his action in the closing stages told me he wasn’t stopping and was actually reducing the margin in the closing stages, although the winner wasn’t exactly doing a great deal.
I was always adamamnt that Jan Vermeer would stay twelve furlongs, but his last three starts over the distance have proven otherwise. They were the efforts of a horse who doesn’t stay – Planteur’s effort at Longchamp was not.
The Elie Lellouche-trained colt has the main attributes of an Arc contender – a strong traveller with instant acceleration.
I’m quite happy with the 25’s I got before Chantilly. I think the colt is progressing nicely and you will see something like the finished article in October.Bos – Interesting look at the race from your angle…others have ‘Bheki’ the Arc winner already…
The one thing I’d say that would be the big worry & it’s not the turn of foot issue – but the jockey.
Still looking for a group 1 win – 6/1 for the Arc with a jock onboard with that hoodoo or stat to break.
There was no reason for him not keeping alongside his pacemaker (gone through all this on French thread) maybe unless they had doubts about the trip beforehand? Or it was jockey error?
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