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My final picks
1st Mon Mome
2nd Comply Or Die
3rd My Will
4th State Of Play
5th Cerium
6th Big Fella ThanksAre you predicting this years race, or last years race Gerald?
Value Is EverythingI see the Pipes have left Madison in the National – keeps The Package’s weight down – has to be a tactical decision, surely.
I used to have a boss who was a very astute business man, and very shrewd. Whenever two football teams or tennis players etc met again, he’d bet on the same result as before. Thought I’d give it a go!
Slaney Bookmakers in Wexford are running a special market :
pick 3 horses to complete the course: 7/2
" 4 " " " " " : 7/1
" 5 " " " " " : 14/1
" 6 " " " " " : 28/1
" 7 " " " " " : 50/1Good luck!
Following months and months of agonising over every last detail and in the hope that NTD can pull off an incredible Gold Cup and National double my selection is:-
BEAT THE BOYS
to lead from pillar to post.Mon Mome can not win.
5 I have backed:
STATE OF PLAY
My Will
Flintoff
Can’t Buy Time
Dream Alliance- Total Posts 17716
Snowy Morning
State of Play
Comply or Die (e/w only)
Big Fella Thanks
The PackageIf Chief Dan George was in, he’d be on the list.
Dont know why but the closer we get to Saturday the more optimistic I am getting about my bets on Hello Bud.
Got a great racing weight, proven stamina and a front runner so hopefully will stay out of any problems. Granted not an ideal jockey but he will clearly know the horse well so dont see that as a major factor.
Have also had Backstage and Knowhere
Mon Mome can not win.
I don’t understand. Mon Mome is running off 155. The rule of thumb I use is for the winner to put in a 10lb better performance. Are you saying that Mon Mome can’t run a 165, given that he ran a 161 last year?
Mon Mome can not win.
I don’t understand. Mon Mome is running off 155. The rule of thumb I use is for the winner to put in a 10lb better performance. Are you saying that Mon Mome can’t run a 165, given that he ran a 161 last year?
I’m not sure if he can run to 165. A lot of people are mentioning his run in the Gold Cup as being ideal prep for this but let me put it this way, if he were to run in the same manner in the National he has no chance. Yes he was finishing strongly but at one point he was so far behind it looked for sure he would be pulled up. If he gets as far behing in the National then he will really struggle to get back into the race…….
I’m not sure why people are praising Mon Mome’s 3rd in the Gold Cup – he plugged on from a long way back to trot past beaten horses at the time who tried to go with Denman and IC (i.e. Cooldine) but couldn’t; doesn’t really amount to much from a form perspective and not the best pointer for the Grand National in my view. It’s perilously hard to follow up a GN win and with so much quality competition, I’d be happy if he just got round safely to be honest.
I’m not sure there’s many people praising Mon Mome’s performance in coming 3rd in the Gold Cup – we’re just chuffed because we had some money on it to be placed.
Mon Mome’s case is not based on the Gold Cup, but on last year’s Grand National.
I think it is a bit rich people knocking MM’s performance in coming 3rd in the Gold Cup, when only 8 horses in the Grand National field ran well last time out.
Probably praising is the wrong word then, overexaggerating the worth of the form perhaps, especially by the media (i.e. Channel 4 last Saturday). Personally I can’t see either MM or COD winning due to their actual weight, but I may be wrong, though stats are not in their favour.
Black Apalachi is the winner. Travelling like a dream last year and been aimed at this race since. Has the class and proven form around Aintree. Right age to win. Will be up front and therefore out of trouble. Mon Mome, State of Play, The Package and Comply or Die to follow him home.
I’m not sure whether it happens every year, but some wise people thought that Comply Or Die could back up, and the same has been said about Mon Mome (including by Fist
). For what it’s worth, he is the best Grand National horse in the past 10 years:-
Highest rated performances in the race, 2000-2009
1. Mon Mome (1st in 2009) 161
2= Hedgehunter (1st in 2005) 160
2= Hedgehunter (2nd in 2006) 160
2= What’s Up Boys (2nd in 2002) 160
5 Royal Auclair (2nd in 2005) 155
6= Comply Or Die (2nd in 2009) 154
6= Snowy Morning (2nd in 2008) 154
6= Monty’s Pass (1st in 2003) 154
9. Comply Or Die (1st in 2008) 153
10= King John’s Castle (2nd in 2008) 151
10= My Will (3rd in 2009) 151compiled by Neil Young, based on assessments by Phil Smith
Mon Mome can not win.
I don’t understand. Mon Mome is running off 155. The rule of thumb I use is for the winner to put in a 10lb better performance. Are you saying that Mon Mome can’t run a 165, given that he ran a 161 last year?
So would you say that at the age of 10, Mon Mome is improving Gerald ?
I don’t think he can run to 165, in fact based on him being a relatively small horse and carrying 11-7 I doubt he’ll be running to anything like 161 this year.
Just my opinion though and on a side note I see that Murphy has elected to stick with Comply or Die. Not sure how I feel about that having backed The Package.
My own fault for siding with a 7yr old I suppose !
Still, Graham Lee is not a bad alternative, although I do like the way Timmy rides the course.
Lee
So would you say that at the age of 10, Mon Mome is improving Gerald ?
I reckon if the pace hadn’t slackened after 2nd Becher’s (when normally that is when it quickens up), I reckon Mon Mome would have won even more impressively last year.
However, I admit that I may be 180 degrees wrong in that assessment.
On the matter of improvement, he doesn’t have to improve a lot, just a little.
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