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AP said on C4 TV that he did not need to decide until 2 days before the race and he had a choice of 4, if that helps.
If you want to bet on him Skybet go 14-1 for him to win.
http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoE … seracing_2
Now that looks a fair bet to me as whatever he rides won’t be 14-1 imo.
I for one would love to see him win, he has given me so much pleasure.
Has anything been said about Madison De Berlais participation?
Could Notre Pere run if it comes up soft?
All we’ve heard from Pipe is that they are unsure whether to go for the national or the race he won last year on the Thursday…
I reckon Notre Pere’s running regardless of the ground. It’s been his target pretty much all season
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He’s still in at Fairyhouse next Monday and it looks like the ground will suit given the current weather we’re getting.
I see Notre Pere is quite a bit bigger on the exchanges than bookmakers for the Aintree race. So I’d expect him to go elsewhere.
It will be difficult for connections of Madison De Berlais to ignore the Scottish National. With so many in the long handicap (out of the weights), he’d have a much better chance in that. With the bonus of carrying 10stone 1lb, instead of 11st 10lbs.
If those two do go for other prizes, Mon Mome will carry top weight. Hopefully.
Value Is EverythingDoes anyone think Conna Castle is a good EW bet at 100/1?
So far I have Arbor Supreme EW at 20/1s, Snowy Morning EW at 22/1, Whinstone Boy EW at 33/1 and two winners chosen – Comply or Die and Vic Venturi.
I worked on the assumption last year that he didn’t stay 3 miles in the Racing Post Chase.
My Current Bet is:
Arbor Supreme at 80/1 on betfair.
Surely there is no value in Big Fella Thanks at 8/1? Had 39 other rivals to face, yes half of them are dogs, but surely 8/1 is way to short!
An interesting entry is: Backstage
The way he won at Ffos Las on their opening day, jumping like a stag, he was breathaking and won by 10l. G Elliot has won the GN before. With 11st on his back, i can see him running well at a nice 20/1
We shall see closer the time anyway
It will be difficult for connections of Madison De Berlais to ignore the Scottish National. With so many in the long handicap (out of the weights), he’d have a much better chance in that. With the bonus of carrying 10stone 1lb, instead of 11st 10lbs.
Apparently they’re leaning towards the National…
Yes, it is difficult for them to contemplate the Scottish on the assumption of Denman’s participation. Denman pulls out, then you’re left lumbering topweight. Got topweight in GN as well though.
Would have thought Betfair Bowl was an obvious target for MDB – what else is going there?
Segal picked Backstage but I really can’t see anything in the formbook that suggests he has the quality to win a National off 11st. Especially if it’s on the soft side.
Conna Castle would surely not stay if he started tomorrow.
Whinstone Boy looks interesting if he gets in. I do think the Thyestes provides the right sort of experience for the National.
I’ll believe that Denman is running in the Scottish National on the day; boy who cried wolf too many times imo when it comes to running in Nationals. As for Whinstone Boy, I’m very tempted to have a bet on him, especially with the forecast rain. Fine stamp of a horse he looks.
This rain is likely to scare off a few runners. Whinstone Boy could just make the cut…
This rain is likely to scare off a few runners. Whinstone Boy could just make the cut…
Whinstone Boy will make the cut.
Chief Dan George will be the last in
Would have thought Betfair Bowl was an obvious target for MDB – what else is going there?
Segal picked Backstage but I really can’t see anything in the formbook that suggests he has the quality to win a National off 11st. Especially if it’s on the soft side.
D Pipe is very much hinting that the National is the target for MDB.
I’m with you on BACKSTAGE. Can’t have him for a number of reasons and as you say he does not strike me as having the quality to win a National. The trainer being a previous winner and making bullish noises about his horse is keeping the price down.
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Does anyone know if Lennon will be running in the National?
You guys seem to know your stuff.
Think Lennon is intended, but could he perhaps be taken out if Abbeybraney ends up as 1st reserve after the 48 hour decs..?
Think Whinestone Boy will struggle to get in now.
Pipe has all but confirmed his no hopers like Pablo du Charmil and Piraya. Will Mullins follow suit with his non-stayers Deutschland and Dooneys Gate? Will NTD run all seven still?Would like to see Silver Birch and Abbeybraney get in, but even this is looking slightly doubtful now as everything seems to be going for the race.
Think Whinestone Boy will struggle to get in now.
Pipe has all but confirmed his no hopers like Pablo du Charmil and Piraya. Will Mullins follow suit with his non-stayers Deutschland and Dooneys Gate? Will NTD run all seven still?Would like to see Silver Birch and Abbeybraney get in, but even this is looking slightly doubtful now as everything seems to be going for the race.
My exact thoughts, however like i said before; some trainers/owners simply will not run their entries on worse than soft ground, so we may lose a few because of the ground…
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