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Ginger, I’m well aware he’s best fresh but it’s a little concerning that his only run this season was when he was pulled up in the Hennessy; I would’ve hoped he’d run him around Xmas time perhaps in a little race just for some confidence and to actually complete say over 3 miles. Racecourse exposure/experience is worth a lot more than work/schooling at home if you ask me. Not concerned whatsoever by his age as a 10 y/o looks perfect.
Don’t Push It will win the Grand national trust me
Thats 3 times i"ve read that!Like i have said before 10-5 and he"s a player! He will be nearer 11-5 and he jumps hurdles better than he jumps fences! Not a prayer!
If they want to completely ruin the SoP’s chance in the National then yes a prep run would be a good idea!
I have SoP @ 25/1 but my main bet is Snowy Morning. Jumping is the problem for him but if he has a good day he is the best handicapped horse in there imo
Disagree, I’d rather SoP run at least twice in a 12 month period between Nationals, as last year when he customarily won the Charlie Hall in November 2008 then competed in the Rowland Meyrick in the December; why EW didn’t take the same route this year with a run in December is a bit puzzling, especially after the pretty lame performance in the Hennessy. I’ve still included him on my shortlist but would’ve preferred just the one more run in the Winter (would still give 4 months to work at home).
TAPK will be playing to 5 places and i have bet the following,-
Mon Mome
at 38 and 8 to place,
Snowy Morning
at 75,44 and 8 to place,
Comply or Die
at 25/1,
Razor Royale
at 75 and 55 and 12 to place and
Backstage
at 25/1!
A bit of a consensus building up about Snowy Morning it seems, has the form, not too worried on the jumping front now more so about the pace to be in contention last mile. I admire Mon Mome but the weight isn’t good, same applies with Comply or Die. RR is interesting but probably has won too much (!) this season?! (compared to the typical profile?) Backstage is interesting, maybe a little too inexperienced though?
A bit of a consensus building up about Snowy Morning it seems, has the form, not too worried on the jumping front now more so about the pace to be in contention last mile. I admire Mon Mome but the weight isn’t good, same applies with Comply or Die. RR is interesting but probably has won too much (!) this season?! (compared to the typical profile?) Backstage is interesting, maybe a little too inexperienced though?
Just double checked my bets there rich and what pleasantly surprised me was i have backed Snowy at 75 on the machine!
Razors Racing Post chase victory would give him an outside chance,more so than that bloody Ballyfitz who would be my fav to fall at the 1st! Mon Mome wont be inconvenienced by Top weight either,he has an outstanding chance of back to back victories!You can always rely on Twister to put in a couple that can’t jump. Agree TAPK, Ballyfitz is long odds-on not to finish. Razor Royale isn’t the best of jumpers, doubt about his stamina too.
Mon Mome has the best chance since Hedgehunter (2nd) of lifting another National. A lot of rubbish is talked about weight in this race. It is the weight compared to the other runners that makes the difference (how well in) not the physical weight carried.
can’t get over how all of last years runners seem to be so well in this time around.
Value Is EverythingDisagree, I’d rather SoP run at least twice in a 12 month period between Nationals, as last year when he customarily won the Charlie Hall in November 2008 then competed in the Rowland Meyrick in the December; why EW didn’t take the same route this year with a run in December is a bit puzzling, especially after the pretty lame performance in the Hennessy. I’ve still included him on my shortlist but would’ve preferred just the one more run in the Winter (would still give 4 months to work at home).
One thing to look at to see whether SOP will run to form is if the trainer is in form. EW is in good form at the moment, will see nearer the time.
The fewer races SOP has the more likely he is of performing on the day.
Snowy Morning has enough pace to be fairly effective at 2 1/2 miles, definitely has enough pace. Also proved he stays when placed in the race. It’s his jumping that’s the thing with him and who’s going to ride.
Value Is EverythingA lot of rubbish is talked about weight in this race. It is the weight compared to the other runners that makes the difference (how well in) not the physical weight carried.
can’t get over how all of last years runners seem to be so well in this time around.
Ginger, look at the facts from the last 20 years – no winner had physical weight over 11st1, the relative handicap weight ("well-in") you refer to is merely peripheral to this main statistic; it is therefore much easier to pick a shortlist from of those runners around 10st6 to 11st to try and decipher a National winner – I’m sure that there were horses down the years who were considered "well-in" off top weight or over 11st1 but failed to win.
75 left
OUT go: Albertas Run, Taranis, Our Vic, Casey Jones, Possol, War Of Attrition, Roulez Cool, Le Beau Bai, Seven Is My Number, Louping D’Ainay, Gone To Lunch, Kornati Kid, Follow The Plan, Cane Brake, New Alco, Parsons Pistol, Iris De Balme, Trust Fund, Coe, Mumbles Head. Sizing Australia, Trabolgan, Boychuk.
Thanks for the update BB, Cane Brake only absentee from my list but luckily on NRNB!
Our Vic and War of Attrition are the real disappointing withdrawals for me… shame we couldn’t get Trust Fund in there either.
So we only need Madison and Notre Pere to defect to leave mon mome top weight? I would be working around that handicap framing at the moment. Is Piraya a likely runner?
I’m actually secretly pleased to see my favourite horse Our Vic taken out. As a 12 year old running in the National for the first time, thought he’d be up against it and I couldn’t bear anything to happen to him. Couldn’t go through the trauma of that day at Cheltenham in 2004 again!
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