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Siegemaster and War Of Attrition both owned by Michael O’Leary, eh?
Don’t be surprised if they both declare for the National in the end, but race around Haydock…
…I’ll get me coat.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Really think that this compressing/fiddling the handicap b*llocks is beginning to wreck the race. It’s more like a conditions chase every year. I want topweights on 11-10 and bottom weights on 10-0, not 10-8.
What’s more it’s clear that some of the Irish horses are terribly handicapped – Irish Invader, Beroni, Preist’s Leap should be getting far more than a few pounds off the topweights. This lack of parity between the Irish and English handicaps is an utter farce and I cannot understand why they can’t make them fit closer. It might help if Smith didn’t automatically raise every winner of an egg and spoon handicap by 10lb.
Also why is Royal Rosa raised specially to 139 – if he does get in he’s only denying something that might have a chance a run? And why is Smith making idiotic statements about whether Silver Birch or Palypso de Creek has more to give to the race. If he didn’t clobber every winner of the Becher Chase he might actually get a decent trial and then not have to guess so much.
I think War Of Attrition looks very interesting but connectiosn seem unhappy with the weight so he’s a doubtful starter.
I think I’ll have a delve into it over the weekend.
Really think that this compressing/fiddling the handicap b*llocks is beginning to wreck the race. It’s more like a conditions chase every year. I want topweights on 11-10 and bottom weights on 10-0, not 10-8.
What’s more it’s clear that some of the Irish horses are terribly handicapped – Irish Invader, Beroni, Preist’s Leap should be getting far more than a few pounds off the topweights. This lack of parity between the Irish and English handicaps is an utter farce and I cannot understand why they can’t make them fit closer. It might help if Smith didn’t automatically raise every winner of an egg and spoon handicap by 10lb.
Also why is Royal Rosa raised specially to 139 – if he does get in he’s only denying something that might have a chance a run? And why is Smith making idiotic statements about whether Silver Birch or Palypso de Creek has more to give to the race. If he didn’t clobber every winner of the Becher Chase he might actually get a decent trial and then not have to guess so much.
GD,
Can you please give reasons why you think each individual Irish runner is so hard done by. Possibly with marks etc.Only it seems you’re complaining that some horses are poorly handicapped without giving reasons why. Then you seem to be saying Silver Birch should be given more weight, just so that he can run.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
Can’t belive Don’t Push It has 11st5lbs and giving weight to War of Attrition but still think he travells well enough to run a big race if taking to the fences.
Mon Mome won with such ease last year I think he must have a helluva chance but the horse that looks thrown in to me is Charlie Mann’s Air Force One. If he came back to his best he’d have to go close. Unfortunately he can jump like a pig which is not very encouraging but I’ll be keeping a close eye on him
Air Force One did not look fit at Newbury on Saturday Fist. Can certainly improve on that. Though have some doubt whether he’s acapable of returning to his very best. Agree jumping ability is also open to question.
Can’t have Don’t Push It. Had doubts about him staying 3 miles and he did. But 4 1/2m? Nahh!
Value Is EverythingWould it be possible to merge the two National threads?
Vikingflagship must be from the betfair forum – where most people start a new thread whenever a new thought pops into their head.
Eight steps to narrow the field that has produced every winner since 1989 where my records stopped but i am almost sure you can include at least the winners 1988,1987, here are the rules that your selection should have a match for at least 1 of them if not them you would need to look eleswhere or pary for an end to this winner finding streak
Here are my simple rules to narrow the field
1) Top 2 finish in that seasons Midlands National (1997)
2) Ran in a English National
(1989, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2007,)3) Irish National (, 1995, 1999, 2000, 2006)
4) Welsh National (1988, 1992, 1994,1998, 2002)
5) Irish Trained Never out of top 10 all season LTO ran over hurdles 20f or less (2000, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2006)
6) Top 4 Cheltenham Festival finish (1990, 1991, 1996)
7) Won That Seasons Eider (2008)
Had at least 3 National Top 10 Placings (1989,1990,1991 1992,1993 Void 1994,1995,1996 1997,1998,1999,2000,2002,2003,2005 2006,2007)
A) Now these simple rules are my own and you can further reduce the field by adding some of the other Stats such as Weight carrying 11st 1lbs or less
B) Plus Official Ratings the last 13 winners had a winning rang of OR136-OR149 that is a 14lbs sweet spot
C) Top 7 Finish in last Completed run
D) Age 8-12y olds have won last 13 runnings
E) Of the top 4 horses from Last season running 30 have tried again the next season to win only Amberleigh House managed to win also he was the only 12 year old to win since 1997 and his course record prior to his win read
3rd previous years National
2nd Beecher Chase
9th Topham
1st Beecher
BD Grand National 2 season prior to win
He had ran 5 times on the course with 1 win 3 top 3 placings and only 1 finish outside the top 10 when Brought Down so its save to say that if one of last season top 4 finishers is a decent course runner you would have to look closer at it Headgehunter Montys Pass Papillon all managed a to place after ther win this makes Mon Mome of interest as he is yet to finish out the top 10 in three couse runnings
1st John Smiths Handicap Chase
10th Grand National
1st Grand National
so he looks like he could at least place this seasonThe eight markers are not meat to narrow the field as such just to see if your selection matches at least 1 of them
Gingertipster,
What has Irish Invader done that puts him only 5lb lower than a RSA Chase winner (with a decent run this year), a Guinness Gold Cup Winner (9 months ago) and a horse that won three major chases last season. He was well beaten last year (after running well for a long way). He won a fair handicap at Punchestown and I’d have him around 11st. Much the same comments about Preist’s Leap. My problem is with the disparity between the handicaps which makes Phil Smith guess. But that said, it’s not just the Irish as Roulez Cool doesn’t look desperately well handicapped either.
The comment about Silver Birch wasn’t saying that he should get an artificial rating to get in – it was more that the handicapper shouldn’t be fiddling it around individual horses. There is of course a chance that neither will get in.
I don’t see the need to compress the handicap; as others have said the 11 stone thing has largely been because far more horses have historically run off lower weights.
I’m very happy with Character Building weight, not so Niche Markets, although I think I’d back him to overturn form with Tricky Trickster of level weights, especially as he was the only horse racing Denmam on Saturday which took its toll in the end.
Of the other, I quite like Flintoff with a nice racing weight.1) Top 2 finish in that seasons Midlands National (1997)
2) Ran in a English National
(1989, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2007,)3) Irish National (1995, 1999, 2000, 2006)
4) Welsh National (1988, 1992, 1994,1998, 2002)
5) Irish Trained Never out of top 10 all season LTO ran over hurdles 20f or less (2000, 1999, 2003, 2005, 2006)
6) Top 4 Cheltenham Festival finish (1990, 1991, 1996)
7) Won That Seasons Eider (2008)
Had at least 3 National Top 10 Placings (1989,1990,1991 1992,1993 Void 1994,1995,1996 1997,1998,1999,2000,2002,2003,2005 2006,2007)
You seem to have missed a couple…
In the horses that have ran in a Grand National before; you’ve missed out Royal Athlete and Mon Mome
At 3 and 4 are you loking at winners or who have ran in it? Even so you missed out Silver Birch in the Welsh National…
And why no mention of the Scottish National? If i could only use one other National to base my selections on it would be the one that has a distance close to the Grand National itself…?
my sister lives abroad but wants to put bets online, she was asking about seven is my number, i don’t really know much about the horse, can anyone provide me with info on form, distances he’s used to? ground etc
vf
Seven is My Number has won 5 chases this season ranging from 2 miles to 3 miles 1. In that 3 miler he beat the likes of Beat the Boys and Tatenen, so it was by no means an easy race, but not the most competative considering there were only 5 runners. He was only 7 lengths behind The Last Derby in the 3 mile United House Gold Cup, so he should be able to stay at least until Bechers 2nd time round. A real confidence booster is that he has never fallen, so we know he can jump round. He did however pull up on his last outing in the 2 mile 5 Betfair Trophy Chase, so maybe the 3 mile+ scene is what he wants.
His last two wins were on soft ground, but they were only fields of 2 and 5. His other wins were on goog, good to firm, but those wins were over 2 miles – 2 miles 5. So he seems to handle all grounds.
He’s carrying 10-13 so he has a handy enough weight, but he’s only 8 years old.
All in all he’s not without a chance, but i’d look elsewhere myself…
Gingertipster,
What has Irish Invader done that puts him only 5lb lower than a RSA Chase winner (with a decent run this year), a Guinness Gold Cup Winner (9 months ago) and a horse that won three major chases last season. He was well beaten last year (after running well for a long way). He won a fair handicap at Punchestown and I’d have him around 11st. Much the same comments about Preist’s Leap. My problem is with the disparity between the handicaps which makes Phil Smith guess. But that said, it’s not just the Irish as Roulez Cool doesn’t look desperately well handicapped either.
The comment about Silver Birch wasn’t saying that he should get an artificial rating to get in – it was more that the handicapper shouldn’t be fiddling it around individual horses. There is of course a chance that neither will get in.
I don’t see the need to compress the handicap; as others have said the 11 stone thing has largely been because far more horses have historically run off lower weights.
Irish Invader is up 10 lbs from last year’s race. But he won / improved between the weights coming out and the race itself last year. So his mark in last year’s race creates a false impression. Though the Cashel Chase he won has not worked out. Second Carthalawn has not won this season. Could’ve been expected to come down a bit for that, so yes, agree he’s a bit harshly treated. But nothing to do with weights being compressed, as it’s the same for all runners; the British runners too. And Notre Pere is well handicapped because of compression (I’d have him as clear top weight).
Your original post seemed to suggest Phil Smith was being unfair to Irish runners. There are British runners who are poorly treated as well. Some Irish horses are very well handicapped, Notre Pere, Snowy Morning is off a mark 9 lbs better than 2009. Despite Mullins saying after the race he’d not got him right at any point that year. Dare I say War Of Attrition is also very well handicapped. The owner and trainer’s apparent vendetta against Smith does not do Irish trainers any favours. Lydia Hislop said yesterday it "bordered on slanderous".
She also described the English and Irish handicaps as "comparing farenheight with centigrade". The two are different scales. It may seem as though Irish runners are poorly handicapped because the Irish handicappers scale is slightly lower than Phil Smith’s British handicap. Therefore he often has to give Irish horses a "higher" mark than the Irish handicap mark; to keep "parity". In other words: A horse in Ireland is given a slightly lower rating by the Irish handicapper, than a horse of comparable ability in Britain is given by the British handicapper.
Value Is Everything
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