- This topic has 631 replies, 59 voices, and was last updated 7 months, 1 week ago by
.
-
Posts
-
If Conflated hadn’t run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year I might agree with you, FF.
He certainly has more speed than many “stayers” which is why he’s done well when the emphasis has been on speed when racing at 3 miles (when the pace hasn’t been strong).But if he “barely gets 3m” FF, how come he was third in last year’s Gold Cup?
Putting up a performance that on merit is up there with his 3m victories.And if he’s a horse that barely stays 3m I would personally have expected him to have done better in the Ryanair. When outpaced from 3 out where the pace quickened. Only staying on late in pretty much the same way as the stayer Capodanno.
“Fair” chance isn’t a good chance of staying 4 1/4 miles, and would need a sound surface even for fair.
Value Is EverythingIf I’m right then Kitty Light is sharing the last place with Glengouly and Chambard.
I expect a few more to drop out, Adamantly Chosen has a Topham appointment and a few would have missed a run because of the missing cross country race at Cheltenham, then there’s the fact not every owner loves the National and probably don’t want their horses running.
April 8th is 5 day declare stage.
If everything holds their ground, then the will be lots drawn for last place.
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Derek Fox is to ride Corach Rambler
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.I do think Adamantly Chosen would be much better suited by the Topham.
I believe The Goffer might go that route too.
Classic Getaway too.
Value Is EverythingThe still about a couple of weeks away, but the rain keeps on falling in the North West. Would the lighter weights have an advantage in Heavy going?
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.Slightly RR, but the ability to handle the surface is much more important than weight carried and (the thing that is probably not taken account enough of in such circumstances) the difference in the amount of stamina needed makes a massive difference.
Value Is EverythingI think I’ve found the worst handicapped horse in the race. What did Foxy Jacks do to deserve 157?
I suppose that probably makes Latenightpass similarly badly handicapped as they’ve presumably used that strand of form from the veterans running in the Cross Country handicap. Surely they have to step back from framing the weights and say does it make sense that Foxy Jacks has more weight than Galvin, slightly less than Delta Work etc at the age of 10 after 40+ runs under rules. That is a ludicrous mark for a horse with his profile, he’s only getting 2lbs off Corach Rambler. A post from KendalCavalier on page 8…
“As part of the process the authorities are supposed to look at horses that have made mistakes, fallen, unseated and refused etc. and will supposedly determine if a horse is fit to take part. If they are to truly do this then one of the best handicapped horses in the field must surely come under scrutiny in Farouk D’Alene. I wonder if they will make an example of him.”
Elliott confirms he comes here. 7 chase runs which includes 2 falls and 3 other shocking rounds of jumping. If an example is to be made, this is it.
Other than Bronn, Janidil, and possibly Glengouly; I can’t see many more dropping out at the 5 day decs.
If it came up soft/heavy then I could see a possible switch to the Bowl for Capodanno, Peter.
Value Is EverythingAdamantly Chosen did stay a 3m2f in a small field event that appeared to me slowly run last time, but very doubtful he’d stay any further.
Will Mac Tottie definitely be coming here if it came up soft/heavy?
He could switch to the Topham.
As you imply, Gengouly may well switch to the Topham.
..And yes Janadil barely stays 3 miles, so expect him to come out.
The Goffer is 14/1 for the Topham, 50/1 for the Grand National with the bookies.That’s 6 possibles…
Value Is EverythingAfter a dismal run in a recent Veterans race, I would not expect Mac Tottie to run in the GN and instead try to get in the Topham.
Trainer said after the run at Ascot that Mac Tottie’s next race would be the National. He said at the age of 11 it was now or never regarding Mac Tottie running in the National.
He was never asked a question at Ascot. It looked like they just wanted to get the run into him.
I think the only ones that will drop out are Janadil (trip), The Goffer (trip), Conflated (may well go to the Bowl) and Bronn (trip).
Barring injury, I can’t see any others
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.