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Thanks Peter, I didn’t realise that
I really want Desertmore House to get in, but I fear he is going to miss out by one or two.
If it does end up very soft\heavy will Corach Rambler run ? , you could bottom him , wouldn’t you want a go at some graded races in the future
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Taken from The Irish Field:
“Chemical Energy, Coko Beach, Delta Work, Farouk D’Alene, Fury Road, Galvin, Minella Crooner, and The Goffer were all confirmed to be on target for the race” and that “Conflated is 50-50 to run in the National or Aintree Bowl”
So Run Wild Fred looking like the only defection from the Elliot mob, with potentially Conflated going for the Bowl instead.
That’d put Malina Girl and Empire Steel on the cusp. It’d be great for Sandy Thomson to get a runner in the race.
Connections did not believe Corach Rambler acted on heavy until he showed – well and truly – he did in the Gold Cup. No point in him not going for the National if all is well with him.
Value Is EverythingAfter his run in the Kerry National did fancy Desertmore House and backed him accordingly. Also backed him for the Irish version but he got scratched from that, and looks unlikely to make it here.
If Conflated drops out in favour of the Bowl, that’ll leave Noble Yeats as top weight and although not looked it up, think it could be the first time a top weight could win since Red Rum.
If heavy then one at the bottom of the weights is Galia Des Liteaux is a possible.
Might have a small coincidence bet on Eklat De Rire if making the cut, because his mare is named after the town I come from.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.While it would be great for the stable Empire won’t stay , I hope they go to the topham
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Aside from his Curragh winner on the opening day of the Flat in Ireland, the Martin Brassil horses have been misfiring badly. His two this weekend have been beaten a long way from home and to my untrained eye look out of sorts. I think both Desertmore House if he were to scrape in and Panda Boy are looking up against it now to be honest and I’m on Panda at 66’s. I think he may have run out of time in order to turn this around.
What stats are you looking at KC?
Martin Brassil’s statistics have imo been better this season, particularly a 23% SR with his chasers.
And his place record has been better than any of the last 5 years.Value Is EverythingThe one beaten yesterday was beaten due to being too keen, jumping very poorly and running over a trip too short.
However, I would like too see his horses in better form.
“Hard to know for sure as its 1 win out of 3 of late so a small sample”.
————————————————————————Those two Pulled ups were a horse that had run at Cheltenham on heavy ground and reappearing after just 17 days… And Longhouse Poet, who’s not been right all season – ie not been right when the trainer has been in great form… And the other runner of three won.
When judging trainers in and out of form I’ve got to look at why they ran poorly.
Also when just 3 runners in the last 2 weeks I’ve got to look back further.
3 winners in his last 20 runners. It’s not what I’d call “in form” but certainly not “out of form” either.Martin Brassil is also one of the most successful “target” trainers around too. They tend to run well when they’re in their targeted race.
If you’d backed all his chasers this season you’d be in profit.
If you’d backed all Willie Mullins Chasers this season you’d be in deficit.Value Is EverythingCould have sworen I put up my viws on Delta Work but I can’t see them.
Anyway, he’s still there and still 33/1 so no harm done. I fancied him
last year and he was running a good race up near the front, when at the
21st fence he got bumped on his left by a horse and then bumpded by the
horse on his right. Not a lot Keith Donaghue could do and he was unshipped.
He had been travelling really well and he’s 2 lbs lower.I think he has a great chance. I took the the 33s e/w and the 42s on the
exchangr on the nose. So much can happen, but he looked comfortable over
the course last year. 33s seems very decent to me.Delta Work 33/1 e/w 6 places Bet365 and 41/1 on the exchange on the nose.
I’ve committed to Galia Des Liteaux. She seems quite versatile ground wise, looks suited by the trip based on her Warwick run, and will be primed for this with Dan Skelton eyeing up the trainers title. She’s still plenty big enough in the betting.
She’ll be my fourth dart with Kitty’s Light, Chemical Energy and Minella Indo.
I will be backing Eldorado Allen for fun, but I’ll wait for 7 places on the day
The Grand National looks to be on HEAVY GROUND this year. Two definitely scratched are BONN and CLASSIC GETAWAY. Also with MINELLA CROONER who ran in the Irish version expect him to drop out. Some are doubly engaged, but at the moment do we really know their plans or just wishful hoping.
Anyway the bottom weight as it stands are on a rating of 146 that’s
GLENGOULY
GALIA DES LITEAUX
PANDA BOY
EKLAT DE RIRE
CHAMBARD
KITTY LIGHTThe suborder is determined by their current Official ratings that’s
GLENGOULY 145
GALIA DES LITEAUX 146
PANDA BOY 144
EKLAT DE RIRE 142
CHAMBARD 145
KITTY LIGHT 145If any are still tied then the drawing of lots determined which order they are in.
According to Racing Post these 4 can handle the likely going.
I’AM MAXIMUS (Ran on heavy ground in the Bobbyjo)
MR INCREDIBLE (Run in the Classic Chase looked promising, and still traveling well when saddle slipped in last year’s race. Ran encouragingly in Midland’s National.
NASSALAM Welsh National showed that heavy ground was no problem, could repeat Grittar in 1982
GALIA DES LITEAUX Heavy ground and a left-handed track is the perfect combination for Galia Des Liteaux, who made it 2-2 in those conditions when landing a Grade 2 novice chase by 13 lengths last year.
Her latest start can be ignored as she’s disappointed in all but one of her starts on right-handed tracks and she could go well from the bottom of the weights, especially as she ran a great trial for the National when staying on for second in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January.You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.RR,
Minella Cocooner ran in the Irish National.
Minella Crooner is entered in the Grand National.Value Is EverythingDo like the look of galia des liteaux
She’s a proper soft ground plodder
If she gets in a jumping rhythm she should complete the race which I’d imagine will be enough to place unless they go very slow
My initial fancies of galvin and chemical energy have no chance on the likely ground so will be looking elsewhere
Got to be looking at horses under 11st if it is heavy
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