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On form Seville looks a cracking bet Gord. I’m also on him ante-post since the start of the season. But is he going to run?
Thank goodness i dont have to make money playing Golf,i never hit one good drive on the range with this R11 and yet i still bought it!Back to business Ginger,you can hold your own with just about anyone on here,just about! If i was offering odds on the Coolmore/O Brien horses chances of running in the Derby i would go 1/5 Seville, there is absolutely no reason not to run him and Aidan knows he will give Carlton House the shock of his life but wont say as much,money talks Ginge,we know that and cometh the day Seville will be 7/2,to be a success at this game you have to have the courage of your convictions so keep the faith and keep taking the 7/1 e/w.No way will he be out of the 3.Just remember this Ginger.-
https://theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 4&p=306009
You know!
I’ve now topped up at 8’s. (To Win).
Value Is EverythingGinger,you put forward a solid case for Midday in the Coronation Cup and we both know this is defineately a 2 horse race,i respect the fillys record,she is reliable,willing and as game as a pebble.However she has ran against horses of her own sex for the majority of her career,if she is good enough to get
St Nicholas Abbey
off the bridle and it comes to a battle she wins,unfortunately for you Ginger she wont be able to!My old sparring partner,Fist was the first person to alert me to this horse,he called him a ‘Mastercraftsman with wings’,i had my doubts like others but that Chester performance blew me away,not so much formwise but the way he took off and struggled to be pulled up,i think he will go off odds on come Friday so its worth the risk taking Evens now.Good Luck and may the best horse win.
When a jockey struggles to pull a horse up, I take that as a very good sign. Nick had a little canter the other day and he will destroy on Friday. I’ll be delighted to be there to witness it.
You’re not getting any potential from Midday. She runs to the same old standard every time, 123, 124. She’s a Ouija Board, a length or 2 worse.
With Nick, you’re getting a horse who’s run 6 times and put up 2, arguably 3 or 4, blistering performances. It was a horrible race last time as Ryan Moore said, and if they run Await the Dawn or Cape Blanco as a ‘pacemaker’ then I’d expect to see a completely different horse. I’d expect to see one of those 2 run in a similar fashion to how Macarthur was ridden in 2008 with Soldier of Fortune.
Gord, going to the bookies tomorrow from 3.20 til 4.20. Zetland Gold Cup’s on. Not my thing. Who wins it?
Gord, going to the bookies tomorrow from 3.20 til 4.20. Zetland Gold Cup’s on. Not my thing. Who wins it?
Zarkava,the most talented horse in the race is
Mirrored
,his form doesn’t reflect his true ability,i know he’s had problems both physically and Mentally but a repeat of his last run and he wins,the race should be set up for him.I’m confident he can win this and go on to win the Magnet Cup at York after.I see the bookmakers are taking no chances either as he’s 13/2 2nd fav and i dont fancy their fav Sarrsar at all.
Ginger,you put forward a solid case for Midday in the Coronation Cup and we both know this is defineately a 2 horse race,i respect the fillys record,she is reliable,willing and as game as a pebble.However she has
ran against horses of her own sex for the majority of her career
,if she is good enough to get
St Nicholas Abbey
off the bridle and it comes to a battle she wins,unfortunately for you Ginger she wont be able to!My old sparring partner,Fist was the first person to alert me to this horse,he called him a ‘Mastercraftsman with wings’,i had my doubts like others but that Chester performance blew me away,not so much formwise but the way he took off and struggled to be pulled up,i think he will go off odds on come Friday so its worth the risk taking Evens now.Good Luck and may the best horse win.
Midday may have run primarily against her own sex, but look at those she’s beaten.
Vermaille: Plumania had won the Prix de Saint Cloud (Group 1) beating the colts. Sarafina went on to be 3rd to Workforce in the Arc.
Yorkshire Oaks: Snow Fairy beaten 3 lengths by Midday, didn’t stay the Leger trip but beat the colts twice in the Far East.
Midday had also ran well and possibly unlucky when chasing home Sariska in the Oaks. And Sariska was a good second to Fame And Glory in last year’s Coronation Cup.
Midday is at least as good as Sarafina or Sariska and better than Snow Fairy. Gets weight from from St Nicholas Abbey who has to improve to beat her; which is very possible. As I said, I’d make them joint favs. I too was impressed by St Nicholas Abbey, highly encouraging. But at the prices, I believe is worth taking on with the mare. We shall see.
Value Is EverythingGinge,i can see 4/6
St Nicholas Abbey
, 6/4
Midday
, cometh the day so we have both snaffled the ‘value’ at Evs and 2/1,i like to picture a race in my head before i come to my conclusion and this one will see St Nick power past the filly and win going away,sorry old boy!
Picture this,
Judging by betfair, Cape Blanco is not going to run. Can’t see a front-runner in the field. Will be in all the other runners best interests to make it a crawl. Probably be a totally different race to Chester. Would that worry you Gord?Value Is EverythingPicture this,
Judging by betfair, Cape Blanco is not going to run. Can’t see a front-runner in the field. Will be in all the other runners best interests to make it a crawl. Probably be a totally different race to Chester. Would that worry you Gord?When i think back to my first assessment of this race 6 months ago,i marked Cape Blanco down as my first choice,i still dont believe we have seen the real horse this year so i’m pleased he’s not running as i think he would be a danger to all.
St Nicholas Abbey
is blessed with a turn of foot,he handles any ground,gets a 11/2m,was fav for both Guineas/Derby is trained by a master,who has been known to make the odd howler but i wont go into the
Duke of Marmalades
major training error.I personally think if they do go a crawl he will just sit and wait with them all crawling and if it boils down to who crawls fastest wins,its him.It would unfortunately ruin a potentially intriguing race though Ginge.
Right, I’ve now finally settled on a horse for the Derby (again). My first was World Domination, my second was Roderic O’Connor, so I’m hoping it’s third time lucky. Fallon’s on Recital, clearly the Ballydoyle no. 1, and Ballydoyle don’t really send their best horses to the Dante. I think Recital’s the best horse in the race. £300 @ 7/1.
Good luck with that Zarkava,i like your confidence.I have only ever had 3 horses for this since last year and
Sea Moon
hasn’t made the line up,i still think its a 2 horse race myself but instead of doing a ‘Ginge’ i put all my eggs in one basket,more fool me as i should have taken the 20/1 about
Carlton House
back in January,that could prove to be an expensive mistake.I see today Christophe has kept the ride on
Seville
,he will know what to do this time and so long as Colm sets the fractions right Seville will come into his own with 2 furlongs to run,the same could be said for Joseph and Memphis Tennessee setting it up for Recital too however.I’m guessing Pour Moi will run in the Dark Blue Magnier colours and Recital in the Pink.What has really caught my eye is the ‘Without’ Carlton House Market,i see 9/2 is freely available about Seville and 1/4 odds 3 places equates to 4 places should the 11/8fav win,that imo is the bet of the year,i still make Seville 7/2 2nd fav in my world with Carlton House,its not nrnb so i will keep my powder dry for now but come the day i have to take those odds.
24 hrs ago Carlton House traded at 6/4fav for this years Derby,Pour Moi was 9/2,Recital was 6/1,Seville was 7/1 and Native Khan was 10/1.Today we hear the market leader has had a bit of a drama with a leg,his price has drifted to 5/2 on Betfair but as we speak he is still generally the 6/4fav with all major bookmakers,in the meantime however every one of the above horses has shortened in price and yet nothings changed,fair enough if the fav lengthens in price then the 2nd fav or perhaps another horse well backed may shorten but nothings been backed to justify this over-reaction,this is a fine example as to why the serious punter uses Betfair,Bookmakers do this everytime there is a ‘public’ interest in a prestigious race,non more so than the Grand National.I hope Carlton House runs and Seville beats him fair and square,trouble is now,there’s a ready made excuse for when he does get beat and i of all people should be jumping with joy that Carltons got issues,Wrong,if my horse looks beat i will be cheering home Her Majestys!Long live the King,i mean Queen!
I don’t think anyone can blame bookmakers shortening up other horses and just inching out Carlton House King. FOR THE TIME BEING. Until they know how bad the situation really is.
If bookies pushed Carlton House out to 5/2 and it were only a very minor thing, they’d be knocked over for the price. It’s a different scenario on the exchanges because they can just lay a tenner or tonne (small amounts). If Ladbrokes et al only allowed that much before shortening up again, they’d be shot down in flames.
On the other hand, bookmakers have to shorten the other horses because before the scare Carlton House took out between 33% and 35% of the book. If an outsider were to get a scare, it would not affect the over-round so much because the percentage take out is nowhere near 33%. In this case bookmakers had to reduce prices on most of the other horses. Otherwise: If people knew now that the injury was bad enough to keep Carlton House in his box on Saturday; punters could back every horse in the race and still make a handsome profit.
Also, unlike Exchanges, a lot of bookmakers are also betting non-runner-no-bet. So you are not comparing the same market.
Bookmakes must have quite a big over-round for the time being. Later in the week expect the over-round to contract. It is around 133 to 146% at the moment (taking out 3 probable non-runners); was around 123 on monday.
I would not bet at this time, the market is so volatile.
Value Is EverythingZarks: Fingers crossed for you then, sounds like this years Derby has already cost you a packet
Yes, Recital .. perfect profile for a Derby winner and good time figures. Fallon up. Could seem obvious at 4.05 on Saturday and you can’t say that about the other runners.
With the extremely sad demise of Carlton House maybe Mr ‘Epsom’ Fallon could re-light the fires for Ballydoyle and break their Saturday Curse
If anyone can, Fallon can, that’s for sure as nobody rides the Downs anywhere near as good as he does.
Could well be an Oaks/Derby double for him as young Moore did last year
Zarks: Fingers crossed for you then, sounds like this years Derby has already cost you a packet
Not really. Laid out £58 on Betfair, £300 on Recital, maybe £200 on World Domination & multiples? Have got Pour Moi running to get my money back & Recital for huge profit. I reckon they’re the only 2 who can win so I’m not too disheartened, although I think World Domination would be worthy of a place in the line-up.
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