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Hi all, well after my week away sorry to say yours truly is back to haunt eveyone again.
So without further ado here are my one’s to avoid.
Beginning with the Dunhill Links and a return of Padraig to his moment of glory glad to say i had a good return on that Sunday afternoon in July, can he do it again i’m not so sure but in saying that will have to invest again, but i have been thinking that Ernie has been bubbling under recently so will be carrying the main burden of interest, interesting that Sean O’Hair has jetted across so that in it’s self is enough to make him my third selection in what is i think you’ll agree is a damn good renewal.
Moving across the pond to the Texas Open, what can we say other than in the last four years the shortest price winner has been a tasty 200/1 with some fancy prices for the Exacta if there was one aswell, one of those was Anthony Kim dead heat second at 400’s last year, best price this a general 33’s so will do for me.
Another one who has good recent form is Dean Wilson, 3rd, 7th and 2nd in las three years although hasn’t turned a tap much this year, but in the hope that a return to LaCantera will rekindle his enthusiasm in the hope that it doe’s he will be my second choice, for my third choice will side with JJ Henry.
As in previous weeks any thoughts greatly appreciated but whatever your picks Good Luck.
Good luck Wakeman.
My selections are probably becoming very tedious now, but once again I will be backing Niklas Fasth at 28/1.
His two good rounds at the Belfry recently were fantastic, achieved in the worst of the conditions. Therefore it is surprising that his two poor rounds where arguably in the best of the conditions. Does this prove that he plays well on tough courses in difficult conditions, like he will encounter this week?
His good rounds at the Belfry prove he is still in good form, and if he can cut out that one bad round that has crept into his game recently then he will almost certainly finish in the top 5 – then again you can probably say that about anyone who doesn’t have a bad round lol.
Fasth will be my only selection pre-tournament but I will be looking to have a few bets in running, especially if a few players record good rounds at the hardest of the 3 links courses.
It’s hard to say what the hardest course will be at the moment, but after the first round you will have some indication. If for example St Andrews is averaging 70, Carnoustie 71 and Kingsbarns 72 – and someone is lurking on the leaderboard after a great score at Kingsbarns, then their odds might be more generous than they should be, having got the hardest course out of the way. Thats how my betting strategy will look at it anyway lol.
Good luck all.
Mike
It’s hard to say what the hardest course will be at the moment, but after the first round you will have some indication. If for example St Andrews is averaging 70, Carnoustie 71 and Kingsbarns 72 – and someone is lurking on the leaderboard after a great score at Kingsbarns, then their odds might be more generous than they should be, having got the hardest course out of the way. Thats how my betting strategy will look at it anyway lol.
That’s a strategy I also use in the Dunhill Links. Normally you will find St Andrews the easiest by far, followed by Kingsbarns and then Carnoustie, although the later two can flip-flop depending on conditions. So if someone is up there on Friday night and is playing the Old Course on the Saturday, the value is normally there.
Personally, I try not to touch the tournament AP, as I feel the pro-am element can often make it quite anomalous and throw the form book up in the air. I generally wait to see who plays well in the circumstances before wading in.
Welcome back wakeman and I agree that the dunhill is a good renewal. This may be hard to believe but I managed to pick the winner of this tournament last year
Harrington won comfortably in 2006 and has a great record here but he has been complaining of fatigue recently and I just think that he will probably not be up to winning the tournament this year. Ernie’s putting is still not as good as it was and I don’t think he’s much value at present odds. Justin Rose has improved this year but I’m not convinced that Links golf is his strong point.
My three to avoid are –
Peter Hanson who did quite well at this tournament last year and has played good golf this year without winning and maybe this week is the time he will win.
Richard Sterne who has improved this year due to his better putting and may win again this year.
Sean O’Hair who is a promising young american player who should have a decent chance if the courses gets tough but if not and it turns into a putting competition then I would not be so hopeful as putting is his main weakness.In the USA , I can understand why wakeman fancies the chances of Kim who will win if reproducing some of his early season form. The course at the Texas open is often so easy that it’s just a matter of which player putts the best over the 4 days and Kim can be one of the better putters.
However I’m backing John Mallinger again who gave me a good run for my money when I bet on him 2 weeks ago. Just think that he has the game to win one of these lesser tournaments – I managed to get 70’s on BF and he’s a best priced 40’s with the bookies.
My other choice is Nick Flanagan who has finished in the top 20 in both the tournaments he has played on the PGA tour in the last fortnight after being promoted to it because he won 3 times on the Nationwide tour in 2007. Seems sure to win at least one pga in the next 12 months and maybe this week will be his first. 48’s is ok value imo.Good luck everybody.
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