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Just a point here, Empire of Dirt disappointed yesterday most likely due to leaving his race behind at Leopardstown the last day. That’s a huge concern for the other runners in the Irish Gold Cup and I note is being conceived as a negative for Sizing John. However, has everyone forgotten the Kinloch Brae? Sizing was going away from Sub Lieu at the end of 2.5 miles – the same horse that was just closing down UDS in the ryanair and on the form book SJ would have comfortably won that race yesterday. That’s a far bigger boost than empires disappointment as he clearly didn’t show up. If SZ has taken his racing well enough (big if) he’s well overpriced here and I make him a 5/1 shot.
Would not surprise me one bit if Saphir Du Rheu runs a big race today.Not many runs on the clock and seems to be jumping a lot better judged on his last couple of runs.
He has to show a lot more than he has to date but fact he is even running in the race makes me think connections still have faith in him ( a bit like me )
Great post FLD…….
Still missing Thistlecrack.
I’ve gone for Sizing John, not a confident pick with the worry for me would be his stamina around here with the likes of Native River likely to crank things up. Milbear says he would of won the Ryanair this week, I’d throw in the Champion Chase as well….!!
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Djakadam is ridiculously short and Cue Card ridiculously long.
Djakadam is 0 from 4 at Cheltenham
He’s 0 from 7 on ground better than yielding to soft
He’s 1 from 9 in races beyond 2m 5f
He’s had flawless runs twice in the race and couldn’t win itDespite Cue Card being 3 years his elder, he is still 5lbs superior on official figures and his Festival record features 2 victories, a second to Sprinter Sacre and a jockey-error fall when tanking last year in this.
But it looks like the media on/off love affair with Mullins and Ruby will see Cue Card go off twice the price of this nought from four, one from nine, soft-ground lover.
Sheesh!!!!
Oh dear,
This really isn’t up to your usual standard of thinking Joe.“He’s 0 from 4 at Cheltenham”. Those two Gold Cups are his very best form! There’s absolutely no doubt Djakadam acts around Cheltenham.
“He’s 0 from 7 on ground better than yielding to soft”. But the runner-up spot to a well above average Gold Cup winner – Don Cossack – was Djakadam’s career best form. There’s no doubt his top form is on Good ground.
“He’s 1 from 9 in races beyond 2m 5f”. But the truly run 3m2f form is his very best form. There’s absolutely no doubt Djakadam stays.
“He’s had flawless runs twice in the race and couldn’t win it”. And the form of those two runner-up spots (if reproduced) will probably be enough to win it this year.
Punters need to understand when stats are meaningful.
Yes, Djakadam was too free last time, but that was only two weeks after winning over 2 1/2m. There may be a slight chance he’ll be too free here, but only slight. Shuffled back when one came back on Ruby around the home turn meant he was up against it too. Has had a break and obviously been trained for this staying trip. Fact is he’s stayed really well in this race the last two years.
Can’t help thinking your conspiracy theory about Vautour is hindering your otherwise excellent thinking skills, Joe.
Yes, Cue Card has better form, but he’ll need to be at that very best at the age of 11, over further than he’s ever won and at a time when the stable is in crap form. Cue Card has form on good ground if going back far enough – but horses ground requirements can change over such a long career. I was one who was adamant he acts on it – but fact is recent good ground form has been disappointing. Am not saying Cue Card doesn’t still act on good, but there’s more chance he’s now a soft ground performer than there is of Djakadam needing soft.
I would not be at all surprised if Cue Card is extremely well backed on course. Sentiment is behind him. Many years ago in the Victor Chandler Chase, I backed a horse called Panto Prince – shouting him home over the last fence. Then, half-way up the run-in – without thinking – changed to cheering on Desert Orchid. It may the same today if Djakadam and Cue Card fight it out.
Good luck Cue Card.
Value Is EverythingFinal prerace post here to wish Bobby (Venture To Cognac) the very best with Native River.
There are many subjective ways to view this race but with an objective outlook it’s very difficult to make a case against NR, the only horse coming into the race with rock solid consistent recent form, a track record, assured stamina and the profile of a young horse still improving. I suspect that after the race many will be saying, ‘He was the obvious choice. Why didn’t I back him?’
Good luck, Bobby. This would top a meeting you’re already certain never to forget.
Four weeks ago , I backed Native River to win this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup .
Hopefully Richard Johnson can utilise the horse’s stamina and good jumping ability .
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I just can’t see Sizing John lasting home here. Empire Of Dirt may or may not have let down the Irish Gold Cup form depending on your viewpoint but my feeling going into that race was that it was a below average renewal and Don Poli is short of genuine Cheltenham Gold Cup level in my view.
This will be a brutal race I feel and Sizing John’s petrol gauge will be stretched to breaking point. Laying him to 1-2-3 places at 9/4 would be my idea of the call with him. I think he will puncture in a race where prisoners will not be taken.
Cue Card has a huge following but I feel he needs to land this to be the legend that some people are already calling him. Maybe I am alone in thinking that the King George wasn’t great shakes. Much was made of Thistlecrack’s win and I even saw the enthusiasm for the former Stayers Hurdle Champion reach such fever pitch that it was stated that Thistlecrack was going to hose up in the Gold Cup and retire to stud unbeaten in his career
There was just so much wrong with that statement but Thistlecrack was beaten next time and the rest of that King George field isn’t worth talking about.
I would love the younger Native River to win this and set up a bright future for himself but the stable form is as flat as a witch’s diddy.
Best of luck all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
All money aside; there is no horse I’ve wanted to see win this week more than Cue Card. I’ve believed in this horse for what seems like forever through thick and thin. To see him win might just bring tears to my eyes, a feat only Kauto Star and Many Clouds have come close to doing. Come on, old lad!
Well done Sizing John fans, I didn’t think he would see it out but he did the business in good style. Crazy to think they never tried him over further earlier. I know a guy who had him at big odds for the Ryanair, only to see him switched here, you have to feel for him.
Cue Card was struggling anyway I feel. Djakadam just doesn’t get the trip here.
Native River ran his heart out, just outpaced at the business end of it, a couple of sticky jumps didn’t help but he probably just lacks acceleration.
Will it be another one and you are done, or can Sizing John retain his crown and buck the trend?
Well done to his backers and have a good night.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done SJ backers, i had cue card + ew champagne west myself, this time unlike last year CC was definitely beaten when fell.
Not sure if i take this as a positive or a negative towards douvan, cant take it away from the winner though!
Gutted.
Cue Card wasn’t jumping at all in comparison to Ascot. Also moneywise very unlucky as I had Minella Rocco, Native River and Djakadam at high prices earlier this year.
Congratulations to Sizing John backers. The irony that it’s one Potts horse that didn’t go to Tizzard won’t be lost on some, least of all me!
Interesting that native River and Minella ran so close to their form last year.
Maybe Djakadam will be given his chance to win at Cheltenham with a Ryanair entry next year.
Sizing John was selected by quite a few so well done to his supporters. Unfortunately, I just didn’t think he’d see it out. I was firmly in the Native River camp and think Johnson should have kicked on and played catch me if you can rather than wait to be joined and get done in a sprint to the line as it turned out.
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