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I had the 10s on Thistlecrack, mainly because i expected an easy first couple of runs – by which time the bookies would have slashed his odds regardless of the money on him.
Other than that, it’s a race i’ll focus on in the latter half of the season. It’s competitive enough to ensure that other horses won’t have their price cut significantly.
I think Douvan will prove a stronger stayer than Vautour and, granted Good ground, i think he’s my current favourite for this race.
NATIVE RIVER done me a few favours last year. so at 33/1 and the way he improved all of last year i hope he can carry on improving this year.
i ust hope his umping has improved over the summer. then i think he can be a serious gold cup horse. as for staying the trip not a problem. does seem to have a flat spot in his races but will be staying on when others have cried enoughWouldn’t personally back Thistlecrack for this if he was double the price….was a weak division he dominated last year and the recent record of staying hurdlers going chasing speaks for itself…
I know he’s ground dependant and been off a while but for me Coneygree is still very much the one to beat…cannot wait for his comeback…KG and GC ante post going on before he does come back!
Wouldn’t personally back Thistlecrack for this if he was double the price….was a weak division he dominated last year and the recent record of staying hurdlers going chasing speaks for itself…
I know he’s ground dependant and been off a while but for me Coneygree is still very much the one to beat…cannot wait for his comeback…KG and GC ante post going on before he does come back!
I agree Zamorston. Generally speaking, I think people are getting a little carried away with Thistlecrack. I am very excited to see him over fences and 6/1 might look massive for the GC if he takes to them well, but as you have pointed out, the staying hurdles division was weak and Killultagh Vic proved Thistelcrack is far from bomb-proof.
I am really looking forward to seeing Coneygree back.
I’m no expert or good judge but can Thistlecrack be seriously considered a gold cup favourite even before he has ever jumped a fence in public??
I can’t have him as favourite, irrespective or not of what he has beat over hurdles. Look at the chasers he has waiting in store to take him on in the gold cup.
Don Cossack, Vautour (possibly) , Douvan (possibly) Cue Card, Djakadam, Coneygree let alone the second season chasers coming through….how can he possibly be half the price of some of these? Half the price in some places of the two previous winners??….madness. Even if we wins 3 or 4 novice chases in good style leading up to the gold cup, can he be considered favourite over the horses just mentioned? Not for me. He could be anything I agree, but anything but a gold cup favourite right now.I’m no expert or good judge but can Thistlecrack be seriously considered a gold cup favourite even before he has ever jumped a fence in public??
I can’t have him as favourite, irrespective or not of what he has beat over hurdles. Look at the chasers he has waiting in store to take him on in the gold cup.
Don Cossack, Vautour (possibly) , Douvan (possibly) Cue Card, Djakadam, Coneygree let alone the second season chasers coming through….how can he possibly be half the price of some of these? Half the price in some places of the two previous winners??….madness. Even if we wins 3 or 4 novice chases in good style leading up to the gold cup, can he be considered favourite over the horses just mentioned? Not for me. He could be anything I agree, but anything but a gold cup favourite right now.The reason he’s so short is you can add another “(possibly)” to both Don Cossack and Coneygree given they’re both returning from injury. Djakadam has been exposed numerous times as being good but no world beater and Cue Card will be 12 years old. The second season chasers look average at the moment as Blaklion, Native River and co. are admirable sorts but have a very large hill to climb to be considered genuine Gold Cup contenders – much as I’d like them to.
It doesn’t necessarily make it right but I can see why Thistlecrack is the price he is, especially when you consider the fact that Tizzard horses invariably improve for a fence.
At this stage I wouldn’t want to be a backer but I wouldn’t want to be laying him either.
I could quite easily see him falling in a novice chase, and connections reverting to the novice route, because that’s what he is….a novice. Coneygree broke the mould, but that was on very favourable conditions and against some much in decline rivals. Yes you have Djakadam who placed again, but much of the field were over the hill. And given Coneygree was injury prone they thought they would take that route as they may not get another chance. I can see it being another long while before a novice wins another gold cup.
Opinions aside, I hope he turns out every bit as good as everybody thinks.They won’t p1ss about with novice chases. If he doesn’t take to fences he’ll revert back and win another World hurdle doing handstands.
I’m no expert or good judge but can Thistlecrack be seriously considered a gold cup favourite even before he has ever jumped a fence in public??
I can’t have him as favourite, irrespective or not of what he has beat over hurdles. Look at the chasers he has waiting in store to take him on in the gold cup.
Don Cossack, Vautour (possibly) , Douvan (possibly) Cue Card, Djakadam, Coneygree let alone the second season chasers coming through….how can he possibly be half the price of some of these? Half the price in some places of the two previous winners??….madness. Even if we wins 3 or 4 novice chases in good style leading up to the gold cup, can he be considered favourite over the horses just mentioned? Not for me. He could be anything I agree, but anything but a gold cup favourite right now.The reason he’s so short is you can add another “(possibly)” to both Don Cossack and Coneygree given they’re both returning from injury. Djakadam has been exposed numerous times as being good but no world beater and Cue Card will be 12 years old. The second season chasers look average at the moment as Blaklion, Native River and co. are admirable sorts but have a very large hill to climb to be considered genuine Gold Cup contenders – much as I’d like them to.
It doesn’t necessarily make it right but I can see why Thistlecrack is the price he is, especially when you consider the fact that Tizzard horses invariably improve for a fence.
At this stage I wouldn’t want to be a backer but I wouldn’t want to be laying him either.
Cue card will be 11. Don’t forget Vautour
Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
If either Vautour or Douvan do line up, they are potentially the two best chasers around right now, so still a daunting task for any horse let alone a novice.
Cue Card isn’t finished with either, and if Coneygree or Don Cossack return anywhere near their best they will be daunting enough as previous winners.
Should be a cracker if they all line up.Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
Has Willie said he won’t stay?
I can understand why bookies don’t want to take a chance, but I would be hesitant (at this stage) backing Thistlecrack at 6/1 when opponents (question marks or not) could include 2 previous GC winners, twice runner up in Djackadam, no doubt at least one Mullins superstar (Vautour/Douvan/Vroum Vroum), RSA winner in Blaklion and a number of other second season chasers.
If you hadn’t used the word “if” in every one of those sentences then yes, 7/1 would be undeniably skinny.
I’m just playing devils advocate and FWIW My money would be on Cue Card at this stage, regardless of his age, but outside of him I’d prefer to side with the potential of Thistlecrack (despite his jockey) over the doubtful participation/stamina of Vautour and the chance that we’ll see either Coneygree or Don Cossack back to their best.
No chance will Douvan run in the 2017 Gold Cup.
16/1 Djakadam most likely represents the best E/W value though considering we know it’s his target and there aren’t really any doubts. Any of those above him in them market put in their A game though and he’ll be placed at best and I’m not into E/W AP betting (unless it’s in a multiple) for obvious reasons.
Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
Has Willie said he won’t stay?
Willie wouldn’t say tomorrow is Wednesday but it’s clear from numerous podcasts etc. (though admittedly Patrick does talk shite sometimes) and his campaigning of him late last season.
Here’s Willie’s most recent comment “I’m going to see how he races in his first few starts before making longer-term plans. He’s in every picture with regard to potential targets”.
The Gold Cup is the pinnacle of NH racing and one that Willie would dearly love to win. If he didn’t have severe doubts do you not think his end of season target would be crystal clear ?
Yes, of course but the point still stands and the original poster had the “possibly” caveat for Vautour not me, even though I happen to agree with it. Mullins doesn’t think he’ll stay and again I agree.
The fact is there isn’t a single contender who doesn’t have a question mark and considering Thistlecrack’s is his lack of fencing experience you can understand why the bookies are taking no chances given his trainer.
Has Willie said he won’t stay?
Willie wouldn’t say tomorrow is Wednesday but it’s clear from numerous podcasts etc. (though admittedly Patrick does talk shite sometimes) and his campaigning of him late last season.
Here’s Willie’s most recent comment “I’m going to see how he races in his first few starts before making longer-term plans. He’s in every picture with regard to potential targets”.
The Gold Cup is the pinnacle of NH racing and one that Willie would dearly love to win. If he didn’t have severe doubts do you not think his end of season target would be crystal clear ?
So in short, he didn’t say he wouldn’t stay.
We all know Willie is notorious in keeping his cards close to his chest, so I am not sure why you think his end of season target would be crystal clear? Willie and RR are right to be cautious over what they say after the whole Ryanair/Gold Cup fiasco, plus Vautour could go numerous routes so it’s in their interest to say very little.
Interpret that how your want, but trying to draw answers/conclusions from what Willie has said is hard enough – I think to say Willie has ‘severe doubts’ at this stage of the season based on the information available, is a fairly big stretch.
Horse racing is 90% interpretation so forever wait for something or somebody to offer you confirmation and you’ll spend your life betting at SP.
I’m confident WPM thinks Vautour won’t stay and while he’s taking out between 12 & 16% of the books that will give me an edge.
If I’m wrong come March then so be it.
Nice intro from Thistlecrack there btw.
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