- This topic has 544 replies, 77 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Completely ignore the run. The horse doesn’t stay 3m, he’s just had Native River to contend with 2 weeks ago, then he’s given a very long journey just so Nicholls can pick up a bit more prize money, and then he’s had to run in that filthy ground.
Completely ignore the run. The horse doesn’t stay 3m, he’s just had Native River to contend with 2 weeks ago, then he’s given a very long journey just so Nicholls can pick up a bit more prize money, and then he’s had to run in that filthy ground.
What do you make of Native River’s form, Zarkava? Do you think he’s a legit 168? I’m a novice when it comes to studying form but from what I can see it seems to be the Welsh Grand National victory that has pushed his rating to 168. Is the fact that the Welsh National was 3mile 5furlongs on soft ground a factor? You would imagine that race was ran at a much slower pace compared to the Gold Cup?
I wouldn’t trust any of the Kelso form from yesterday. Mount Mews came home by nearly 50 lengths in his race and created a bit of excitement in the process but I don’t trust that race at all.
Paul Nicholls had five of his runners Pulled-Up yesterday and some others who went AWOL and may not yet have been found by the search party.
I cannot see why Nicholls would run his horses in such awful ground, particularly with horses unlikely to be suited by the extra stamina demands.
Capitiane in particular looked a numb-nuts call.
Regarding Native River, I would say that his safest form guides are the fact that he won a Hennessy as a 6yo with 11-1 and a Welsh National with 11-12 while still just 6yo. He was 2 years younger and carried 6 lbs more to victory than Syncronised in his year, and that ill fated chaser went on to win the Gold Cup.
Native River is still actually 6yo and won’t turn 7yo until 4th May this year. He has six wins, a second and three thirds from his 10 chases. He tends to idle in front and yet he seems to find when asked. We know he won’t fail for stamina and he’s facing opponents who have strong negative trends to defy.
If Native River were double figure odds, I think everyone would be over him like a rash tipping him but because he is shorter in the betting everyone is picking holes in the form, when, in fact he’s probably got a lot more going for him than most.
Native River has won his last 3 starts, landed a Hennessy and a Welsh Grand National aged 6, feats that would normally have the punters drooling. Instead we got moans about Native River being compared to Carvill’s Hill for carrying the same weight to victory at Chepstow. Well, Native River won that race aged 3 years less than Carvill’s Hill and the chances are that he will make a better fist of winning the Gold Cup than his much more vaunted yardstick did when beaten out of sight as evens favourite.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Completely ignore the run. The horse doesn’t stay 3m, he’s just had Native River to contend with 2 weeks ago, then he’s given a very long journey just so Nicholls can pick up a bit more prize money, and then he’s had to run in that filthy ground.
What do you make of Native River’s form, Zarkava? Do you think he’s a legit 168? I’m a novice when it comes to studying form but from what I can see it seems to be the Welsh Grand National victory that has pushed his rating to 168. Is the fact that the Welsh National was 3mile 5furlongs on soft ground a factor? You would imagine that race was ran at a much slower pace compared to the Gold Cup?
rubbish
I wouldn’t trust any of the Kelso form from yesterday. Mount Mews came home by nearly 50 lengths in his race and created a bit of excitement in the process but I don’t trust that race at all.
Paul Nicholls had five of his runners Pulled-Up yesterday and some others who went AWOL and may not yet have been found by the search party.
I cannot see why Nicholls would run his horses in such awful ground, particularly with horses unlikely to be suited by the extra stamina demands.
Capitiane in particular looked a numb-nuts call.
Regarding Native River, I would say that his safest form guides are the fact that he won a Hennessy as a 6yo with 11-1 and a Welsh National with 11-12 while still just 6yo. He was 2 years younger and carried 6 lbs more to victory than Syncronised in his year, and that ill fated chaser went on to win the Gold Cup.
Native River is still actually 6yo and won’t turn 7yo until 4th May this year. He has six wins, a second and three thirds from his 10 chases. He tends to idle in front and yet he seems to find when asked. We know he won’t fail for stamina and he’s facing opponents who have strong negative trends to defy.
If Native River were double figure odds, I think everyone would be over him like a rash tipping him but because he is shorter in the betting everyone is picking holes in the form, when, in fact he’s probably got a lot more going for him than most.
Native River has won his last 3 starts, landed a Hennessy and a Welsh Grand National aged 6, feats that would normally have the punters drooling. Instead we got moans about Native River being compared to Carvill’s Hill for carrying the same weight to victory at Chepstow. Well, Native River won that race aged 3 years less than Carvill’s Hill and the chances are that he will make a better fist of winning the Gold Cup than his much more vaunted yardstick did when beaten out of sight as evens favourite.
1 – that’s a bit weak, Steve, personally I’d chuck it all in the bin, a load of toot!
2 – come on, that’s a bit obvious, isn’t it? you’re a smart man, figure it out
3 – that’s an excellent angle, very interesting
I wouldn’t trust any of the Kelso form from yesterday. Mount Mews came home by nearly 50 lengths in his race and created a bit of excitement in the process but I don’t trust that race at all.
Paul Nicholls had five of his runners Pulled-Up yesterday and some others who went AWOL and may not yet have been found by the search party.
I cannot see why Nicholls would run his horses in such awful ground, particularly with horses unlikely to be suited by the extra stamina demands.
Capitiane in particular looked a numb-nuts call.
Regarding Native River, I would say that his safest form guides are the fact that he won a Hennessy as a 6yo with 11-1 and a Welsh National with 11-12 while still just 6yo. He was 2 years younger and carried 6 lbs more to victory than Syncronised in his year, and that ill fated chaser went on to win the Gold Cup.
Native River is still actually 6yo and won’t turn 7yo until 4th May this year. He has six wins, a second and three thirds from his 10 chases. He tends to idle in front and yet he seems to find when asked. We know he won’t fail for stamina and he’s facing opponents who have strong negative trends to defy.
If Native River were double figure odds, I think everyone would be over him like a rash tipping him but because he is shorter in the betting everyone is picking holes in the form, when, in fact he’s probably got a lot more going for him than most.
Native River has won his last 3 starts, landed a Hennessy and a Welsh Grand National aged 6, feats that would normally have the punters drooling. Instead we got moans about Native River being compared to Carvill’s Hill for carrying the same weight to victory at Chepstow. Well, Native River won that race aged 3 years less than Carvill’s Hill and the chances are that he will make a better fist of winning the Gold Cup than his much more vaunted yardstick did when beaten out of sight as evens favourite.
1 – that’s a bit weak, Steve, personally I’d chuck it all in the bin, a load of toot!
2 – come on, that’s a bit obvious, isn’t it? you’re a smart man, figure it out
3 – that’s an excellent angle, very interesting
1. Err, I already said I wasn’t trusting ANY of it.
2. If Nicholls is trying to get a handicap mark for Capitaine, then running the guts out him is a stupid way to do it. Not much use having a good handicap mark when you have pumped the horse up the backside in the process.
Interestingly, in a seance last night, Queen Victoria came through from the other side (BBC2) with a Cheltenham message for the audience. She kept it brief with the simple statement:-
“We are NOT on Mews”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
1. There’s just a misunderstanding here but we both agree, and that’s the main thing
2. Trainers’ Championship
… and the chances are that he will make a better fist of winning the Gold Cup than his much more vaunted yardstick did when beaten out of sight as evens favourite.
I somewhat doubt that Native River will have an opponent out to deliberately disrupt his rhythm.
Is Cue Card a place the best et of the festival
If he runs to his mark of 170 he will atleast be placed, then you have to figure who out of the rest is capable of running to 170+, theres a alot of low 160horses in here
Is Cue Card a place the best et of the festival
Absolutely not.
Is Cue Card a place the best et of the festival
Absolutely not.
The bet of the festival is to lay Cue Card, surely. If he doesn’t stay, he probably doesn’t place, and he has never run to any of the fancy ratings on a stiff track over further than 3 miles.
Don Poli has been ruled out of the Gold Cup.
Gordon Elliott; “we may reshuffle the pack” EmpireOfDirt
Bang goes my 160 on the Don. Someday that horse will win a really big race if age doesn’t beat him.
Looks like Elliott will try to get EoD into this race by hook or by crook. He must be absolutely convinced the horse has a huge chance, though it’d be a dastardly blow to his Ryanair supporters for whom I doubt the NRNB 12s will hold much consolatory appeal.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.