Going Stick Readings

[TheBluesBrother]

I enjoyed trainer John Berry on ATR yesterday ripping into the going stick readings returned by the clerks of the courses, he referred to them as <b>Red Herrings</b>

He went on to say that if you looked at the going stick historical data of any racecourse, what used to be recorded as <b>good</b> going, has now become <b>soft</b> <!– s:shock: –><!– s:shock: –>

In my book, one of the worst official going reports given out recently was at <b>Newcastle</b> for their meeting held on the 7th Aug 2013, where the official going was described as <b>SOFT(good to soft in places)</b>, I calculated the going allowance to be <b>+0.36s/f</b> (good to firm), so the official going was only up to <b>80lb</b> per furlong out <!– s:shock: –><!– s:shock: –>

[indocine]

In my book, one of the worst official going reports given out recently was at

Newcastle

for their meeting held on the 7th Aug 2013, where the official going was described as

SOFT(good to soft in places)

, I calculated the going allowance to be

+0.36s/f

(good to firm), so the official going was only up to

80lb *

per furlong out

I agree fully about Newcastle, though (in general) you have to remember wind is incorporated into time based going which a clerks opinion discounts. The biggest threat to speed figures for me is dolling. It is a daily occurrence, the reporting & measurement of which is growing more lax. The end result could be speed figures for straight races only, and even then you still need to be wary of the straight dolling at Salisbury for instance.

* 80lb per mile maybe, def not per furlong.

[TheBluesBrother]

I don’t work in miles,

80lb

in furlongs equates to

0.80s/f

per furlong.

I spent 2 years working on my method of calculating going allowances which is similar to the method Dave Edwards "Top Speed" uses, except my calculations come out at approximately

+0.08s/f

higher as I use my own

lbs per length

figures.

I developed my own going allowance tables as a basis to work from.

AW going allowance table:

Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/f

Turf going allowance table:

Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/f

If anybody is interested, below is the list of my going allowances
and calculated speed figures (2013) for England, Ireland, France and UAE.

Going allowance corrections are in

column H

.
Note that

column N

is hidden, original speed figures prior to adjustments.

[code:1dxxjpa1]http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps[/code:1dxxjpa1]

[indocine]

I don’t work in miles,

80lb

in furlongs equates to

0.80s/f

per furlong.

To be honest that sentence doesn’t even make any sense to me. What you did say originally was…

"the official going (at Newc) was up to 80lb per furlong out"

Now that does make sense to me, but it also at the same ridiculous.

Unless there are interpretation differences.

[TheBluesBrother]

If you look at my turf going allowance table, the entry into soft is

-0.58s/f

, and I calculated the going at

+0.36s/f

so the range is -0.58 + 0.36 = 0.94 or

94lbs

.

Every

0.001

would change a rating value by 1lb, so 0.94 would equate to a change of 94lbs.

Sorry if this confused you

[indocine]

If you look at my turf going allowance table, the entry into soft is

-0.58s/f

, and I calculated the going at

+0.36s/f

so the range is -0.58 + 0.36 = 0.94 or

94lbs

.

Every

0.001

would change a rating value by 1lb, so 0.94 would equate to a change of 94lbs.

Sorry if this confused you

I’m sorry but 0.94 s/f does not equal 94lb, that is crazy. We are miles apart here.

[TheBluesBrother]

If you download my going calculations for this year, unhide column
N to show the speed figures, then go to column H and in the column H enter in

-0.58

and note the speed figure as it adjusts, repeat the process and in the same box enter

0.36

and note the speed figure, then subtract the 2 figures from each other to see the llbs difference.

Example of a 7f race with 2.22lbs lbs per length.

at -0.58s/f speed figure =

132

at 0.36 speed figure =

54

Difference =

78

or

78lb

s.

[indocine]

If you download my going calculations for this year, unhide column
N to show the speed figures, then go to column H and in the column H enter in

-0.58

and note the speed figure as it adjusts, repeat the process and in the same box enter

0.36

and note the speed figure, then subtract the 2 figures from each other to see the llbs difference.

Example of a 7f race with 2.22lbs lbs per length.

at -0.58s/f speed figure =

132

at 0.36 speed figure =

54

Difference =

78

or

78lb

s.

Yes, 78lb at 7f. Which is exactly why I originally said…

"80lb per mile maybe, def not per furlong",

as you originally said.

[TheBluesBrother]

I have a video on YouTube which I put together to show the basis on how I calculated my going allowances and speed figures.

I use other variables and methods as well as my pace figures to calculate my ratings etc, but it gives an insight to how I achieve them.

[code:8t6ih1pj]http://youtu.be/wkgwKZ46VxU[/code:8t6ih1pj]

[indocine]

I have a video on YouTube which I put together to show the basis on how I calculated my going allowances and speed figures.

I use other variables and methods as well as my pace figures to calculate my ratings etc, but it gives an insight to how I achieve them.

[code:3aykdpf7]http://youtu.be/wkgwKZ46VxU[/code:3aykdpf7]

Not how I make numbers myself, but wont stop me from making couple of comments , lol.

You tie your day’s numbers to a BHA class average. Why? If you want to do tie them to an average, why not tie them to your own class average. Give each horse a master rating sourced from your own back catalogue of figures and tie the day around that average.
That way your figs are become totally independent and will improve (if they are any good.)

You dragged out the Class 2 handicap out of your spreadsheet because you said it was out of skew with the general class of the meeting. Do you think that wise? Honestly run races are not so plentiful that we can afford to ignore some as potential data points.

You also don’t project any improvement on to the BHA figs for what happened today, ie you dont wait until new BHA ratings come out to get the average for the day you are actually measuring.

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