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Glorious Goodwood

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  • August 5, 2017 at 14:12 #1313020
    Avatar photoTheo2013
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    Thanks for the reply :good: we definitly both agree crystal ocean is too short here for a main bet!

    August 5, 2017 at 14:44 #1313021
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Theo2013 wrote:

    Thanks for the reply :good: we definitly both agree crystal ocean is too short here for a main bet!

    He was too short @ 5/4, Theo. tbh I wouldn’t like to lay the 7/4 on betfair at the moment.

    Value Is Everything
    August 5, 2017 at 15:19 #1313022
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Gingertipster wrote:
    Gingertipster wrote:

    Stewards Cup:
    16 points @ 45/1 Classic Seniority (min 33/1)

    20 points @ 27/1 Upstaging (min 20/1)
    22 points @ 16.5/1 Shanghai Glory (min 14/1)

    Couple of old fashioned bets:
    19 points @ TOTE Aolus
    26 points @ TOTE Al Qahwa

    Value Is Everything
    August 5, 2017 at 16:05 #1313031
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Gingertipster wrote:
    Gingertipster wrote:
    Gingertipster wrote:

    Stewards Cup:
    16 points @ 45/1 Classic Seniority (min 33/1)

    20 points @ 27/1 Upstaging (min 20/1) 3rd
    22 points @ 16.5/1 Shanghai Glory (min 14/1) 5th

    Couple of old fashioned bets:
    19 points @ TOTE Aolus 2nd
    26 points @ TOTE Al Qahwa

    Ouch!

    Value Is Everything
    August 5, 2017 at 19:59 #1313040
    MTOTO88
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    Gingertipster wrote:

    Not Goodwood, but I had to put it up because it’s amazing value:

    Prix Maurice de Gheest – Deauville – Sunday:
    50 points each way @ 10/1 (B365) Brando (min 5/1)

    GT, What price do you make Caravaggio?

    August 6, 2017 at 15:18 #1313112
    Avatar photoTheo2013
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    Yesss Brando I’m glad a high value bet has come in for you because annoyingly they still gotta win haha what a price hope you upped the stakes for it :good:

    August 6, 2017 at 15:25 #1313114
    MTOTO88
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    Great shout with Brando GT. 14 50 on Betfair. Lovely jubbly

    August 7, 2017 at 13:54 #1313176
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Theo2013 wrote:

    Yesss Brando I’m glad a high value bet has come in for you because annoyingly they still gotta win haha what a price hope you upped the stakes for it :good:

    Thanks guys. :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

    Yes, Theo.
    Although didn’t work out a 100% book, I estimated Brando’s chance as as between a fair 5/1 (16.7%) and fair 9/2 (18.2%). Called it 17.4%. Almost double what the bookies were offering! :wacko:

    My stakes are worked out as:
    My idea of the horse’s chance (17.4%)
    Minus the price available (10/1 is 9.1%). So 17.4 – 9.1 = 8.3
    times 7. So 8.3 X 7 = 58.1
    Plus my idea of the horse’s chance. 58.1 + 17.4 = 75.5
    Shame I didn’t have a win only bet, as it would’ve been 75 points @ 10/1.
    For each way bets it’s 0.67 X my usual win bet. 75 X 0.67 = 50.25.
    So 50 points each way @ 10/1

    Stakes were over double what I usually stake on a 10/1 shot each way! B-)

    Mtoto,
    My estimate for Caravaggio was around 30%. I should’ve laid it, but am happy enough to turn a poor week in to a good one. :good:

    Value Is Everything
    August 7, 2017 at 14:32 #1313180
    MTOTO88
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    That’s the reason I like your staking system as it increases the stake when the value is higher. Thus, maximising your long term profits. Glad you were able to take full advantage yourself.
    I’m not aftertiming but I realised that you must have thought Caravaggio’s price was way too short (hence why Brando was such great value) so covered my Brando stakes by laying fav at @ 1.85 – for a 9/4 shot in your book!!!! though kicked myself for not throwing up a place lay

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