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1:45 Newbury:
25 points @ 16/1 (L) Blue Uluru (min 14/1)
85 points @ 1.98/1 (betfair) Dakota Gold (min 7/4)
saver:
36 points @ 3.2/1 (betfair) Equilateral (min 3/1)Value Is Everythingwhat would your true price be for Pierre Lapin gin?
Particularly difficult with Pierre Lapin. I haven’t done a proper 100% book on the race partly because of him, Istabraq. Hasn’t run since May means there’s obvious question marks. Has the injury meant he won’t fulfil potential? Will he be fit? Or will he make plenty of improvement in the time since first start?… And the chance of each of those things is extremely difficult to assess. Pierre Lapin may be value, may not. The fact he’s so far been backed is a pointer to the positive. If weak tomorrow it would be a sizable negative. tbh Had there not been the dead 8 runners for each way betting I would’ve tonight backed Malotru win only with a saver on Pierrre Lapin.
Value Is Everything…Pierre Lapin last night was 5/2 and now out to 7/2, currently a negative towards his chance.
Value Is EverythingGinge, probably a little bit of useless Info, spoke with Varians racing manager on twitter and he wasn’t a certain runner as he wasn’t 100% pleading with his work. Was to work Wednesday or Thursday and that would decide if he ran…
Just taken time to strengthen up no major setbacks during his time off
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Ginge, probably a little bit of useless Info, spoke with Varians racing manager on twitter DMs and he wasn’t a certain runner as he wasn’t 100% pleading with his work. Was to work Wednesday or Thursday and that would decide if he ran…
Just taken time to strengthen up no major setbacks during his time off
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Hmmm, I’m reading more between the lines there Jack. Sceptical about this “taken time to strengthen up” stuff. That’s fine when a matter of six weeks off… But it should never stop them running between May and September. If he was that particular type of horse would never have even run in May let alone won impressively. Must imo be other reasons. Sometimes trainers wait until September/October when believing it’ll be better suited by softer ground. Although PL ran/won on good-firm on only start to date, I saw a replay and seems as though he has bit of a rounded action which is rarely condusive to prolonged racing on a firmish surface. More likely to produce injuries on that surface – more reason to avoid Summer racing.“No major setbacks during his time off”; maybe, maybe not, but if so there’s probably been several minor setbacks (sore shins?) or frightened of more injuries… And if “no major setbacks” then why not say what the setbacks have been?
Value Is Everything1000 Guineas:
33 points @ 12/1 (B365) Quadrilateral (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingDakota Gold possibly stayed too far towards the stands rail.
2:20 Newbury:
73 points @ 1.86/1 (betfair) Pondus (min 7/4)
21 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Pivoine (min 16/1)Value Is EverythingHi GT, just wondering if you thought Mums Tipple was any value today. Well backed overnight from 11/4 and best price 9/4 (no doubt in part due to Simon Rowlands tipping him up)
You’re welcome to post on my thread, Hein. Good to see you still looking in now and again.
Yes -as I said in the earlier post – whether Pierre was positive or weak in the market was going to say a lot for Pierre’s chance. 7/2 in the morning in to 9/4 SP showed plenty of (probably) in-the-know thought he’d improved plenty. One of those occasions where the horse shortening indicates better value than a horse lengthening.
Value Is EverythingHad some time with the GF – without Racing. Am sure I would’ve lost plenty on Mum’s Tipple in the Middle Park, Mtoto. Slower away than he needs after apparently being hit by Siskin in the adjoining stall and Finishing lame. Should never have run!
Hopefully both Mums Tipple and Siskin will be ok for 2020.Value Is EverythingWould you still recommend backing mums tipple for 2000 guineas at 33/1 ginger, with how well pinatubo has been doing (though from his size it doesn’t look like he’s one who make that much improvement)? I wonder would mums tipple price get pushed out even more if pinatubo does well in his next race in about 2 weeks, or if they’d just shorten pinatubos price only
Any bets you’d recommend for today?
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