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Voltigeur:
95 points @ 5/4 (B365) Logician (min 11/10)
part savers:
13 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Nayef Road (min 6/1)
5 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Jalmoud (min 18/1)Value Is EverythingYes, each way thieves bets do make restriction or closure more likely if doing loads of them, LS. But if the number of each way bets I make/tip (a very small minority of my bets) is a problem to Ladbrokes enough to restrict or close accounts… then imo Ladbrokes are the ones at fault.
More so for your status as a tipster with a number of highly-vulnerable and impressionable followers – I’d suggest that’s the bigger moral issue with bad e/w plays here. If bad e/w (e.g. a bet with an inbuilt edge even without any insight) makes up any proportion of your selections, then we can no longer us the P/L to objectively judge how good you are. For example, Neil Channing’s ‘BettingEmporium’ tipping site shows a profit on racing and probably always will but his bets are pretty exclusively bad e/w or tight e/w in 8 or 16 runner handicaps. Would you fancy your chances staking old Channing if you told him “by the way Neil, all bets win-only please”? I don’t think you’d get a positive return.
Am aware that betting each way in races with a short priced fav is advantageous to punters, but it is not the actual reason for my each way bets.
If looking at the way I bet it’s all about main bets on what I consider the best value and savers on lesser value. With – adding all prices up (combined chance) – usually a big (often better than 50%) of getting the winner. So what do you expect me to do when there’s an odds-on fav that I don’t consider value? It’s bloody obvious my “saver” will be the place part of my (usually) one each way selection.
Again I just think you’re missing the point a little. Obviously that’s the best value way to play the selection, but for the long-term life of your accounts, you really shouldn’t. I have a lot of bets in low-grade racing but generally resist the urge to play e/w in these specific situations. I’ll play win-only if I believe there’s value in the win side, otherwise I’ll leave it or try to get a little bit on the exchange. I have a similar winrate but keep accounts going much longer than many of my colleagues who just can’t help themselves with a dirty e/w. You’ve just got be pragmatic sometimes. Restrictions are often overly harsh but from experience we know how the game is played by the firms nowadays and have to duck and weave for the best long-term result. If a reckless bad e/w bet draws attention and costs me an account that might have otherwise lasted another 25+ +EV win-only berts, I’ve made a horrendous mistake.
Generally, you surely know punters are put off betting on any race with an odds-on fav… Because they know the odds-on chance has a massive chance of winning. ie Not wanting to take such a short price and yet don’t want to oppose it either in a win only bet. So it is only natural for punters – that do want to oppose the odds-on fav – to back each way when backing against an odds-on fav… Just as – another one of your gripes – vast majority of punters don’t “arb”. What they’re actually doing is simply taking the best price available. ie Betting with bookies when bookies offer the best price and exchanges when exchanges offer the best price.
I just think this is a bit naive. I’m looking at bet tickers and scrutinising accounts all day and you are not. You’re right in that there are many punters will do things like Dee Ex Bee each-way as part of that kind of thought process while also having numerous fair bets at general market prices based on their opinions. That’s the key thing and pretty easy to discern when looking through a profile, like yours. However there are also a vast amount of users for whom bad e/w dominates their business. You’d be shocked I think. Mindless exchanging/arbing is also much more rife than you’d imagine. It’s groan-inducing how, for example, a horse might be static in a market at a general 8/1 for hours. Then suddenly when it’s 5/1 and dips to 5.8/5.9 on Betfair, everybody wants the bet. Could these people answer three questions about the horse/race if put on the spot?
Of course there are times when your hand is forced because you want to be on one and have to act quickly because the price is beginning to go. I certainly appreciate that and will give people the benefit of the doubt as far as it is in the my power do so. We all have to do it once in a while. I saw when you backed Logician @ 11/10 last night it was 2.08/2.10 on the exchange and heading south. Though I jest somewhat about the e/w stuff, I know you’re a thinking punter who would have deep reasoning behind the selection – you just knew the 11/10 would not last. I have no problem with that. But if it’s a consistent behaviour for somebody to be utterly exchange-motivated and obviously betting to directly arb, then I think they can have no complaints when they are caught and restricted.
If any bookmaker doesn’t want to offer the same prices each way as win only they don’t need to. Some bookmakers sometimes offer shorter each way odds and – if you’re so down on us taking each way prices against odds-on horses – you/Ladbrokes Coral should consider doing the same.
This is true and something everyone would love to do ideally. It’s just not viable for one firm individually though – turnover would drop off too sharply versus the competition, especially in retail. Hopefully one day the industry will get together and make the move together to stop the problem. I think punters would benefit too. Each-way betting is just so deeply ingrained in UK betting culture, especially among the older punters. We were the first major UK firm (in the Coral days) to offer enhanced win-only/place-only markets, but they’ve never been popular. A few firms have started doing the ‘guaranteed bet’ markets online with drastically reduced e/w prices for accounts that have been restricted on the main sportsbook. But with those you’d probably get something like 2/1 Dee Ex Bee e/w – reducing the whole exercise to ‘window-dressing’ I think. Ultra-selective restricted customers aren’t going to take that bet and the firm aren’t going to lay more than a bowl of rice on the market as a result. Defeats the object to some extent though would garner some positive PR at first.
It’s an interesting debate though and I do enjoy talking about industry issues (and racing in general) with you. I know I come across rather abrupt more often than not but hope you know that I respect you and admire what you do. I wish we could do a podcast or something where everyone can chime in – I think we’d have some really spicy discussions!
More so for your status as a tipster with a number of highly-vulnerable and impressionable followers –
Ls can you explain why you’ve mentioned highly vulnerable and impressionable followers? Don’t see what your point about them is? They are following GT whether they are ew straight or without favourite bets, what’s the difference
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I just think this is a bit naive. I’m looking at bet tickers and scrutinising accounts all day and you are not. You’re right in that there are many punters will do things like Dee Ex Bee each-way as part of that kind of thought process while also having numerous fair bets at general market prices based on their opinions. That’s the key thing and pretty easy to discern when looking through a profile, like yours. However there are also a vast amount of users for whom bad e/w dominates their business.
My Dee Ex Bee tip was @ 9/2 with Paddy Power. Didn’t quote the 5/1 with Blacktype because didn’t think many followers would have that account. Paddy Power restricted my account shortly after they bought/found out I buy Timeform and my Betfair record. Therefore, even though it may be an each way thieves bet, doubt my own bookie had any problem taking my own 4/1 bet when 9/2 and even 5/1 were available eleswhere.
I have no objection to bookies restricting accounts where “bad e/w dominates their business”, LS. Point here though is that I personally don’t make a habit of it. Am a punter whose vast majority of selections are win only – in all probability far fewer each way bets than the vast majority of punters/tipsters. Therefore, bookmakers should not be restricting my followers accounts on those grounds.
Value Is EverythingYou’d be shocked I think. Mindless exchanging/arbing is also much more rife than you’d imagine. It’s groan-inducing how, for example, a horse might be static in a market at a general 8/1 for hours. Then suddenly when it’s 5/1 and dips to 5.8/5.9 on Betfair, everybody wants the bet. Could these people answer three questions about the horse/race if put on the spot?
Of course there are times when your hand is forced because you want to be on one and have to act quickly because the price is beginning to go. I certainly appreciate that and will give people the benefit of the doubt as far as it is in the my power do so. We all have to do it once in a while. I saw when you backed Logician @ 11/10 last night it was 2.08/2.10 on the exchange and heading south. Though I jest somewhat about the e/w stuff, I know you’re a thinking punter who would have deep reasoning behind the selection – you just knew the 11/10 would not last. I have no problem with that. But if it’s a consistent behaviour for somebody to be utterly exchange-motivated and obviously betting to directly arb, then I think they can have no complaints when they are caught and restricted.
No, I wouldn’t be “shocked”, LS. Yes, some deserve to be restricted. But whether a punter is a serious punter that goes through form or not, I’d expect most punters to try and get the best price. It is only natural/sensible to hold off betting when the market is “static” or with lots of that price available – in the hope even bigger becomes available. Only natural/sensible to get on when the price starts shortening and only natural/sensible for that to be “consistent behaviour”… And the quickest way to do that is keeping an eye on betfair. Odds comparisson sites are slower to react. The vast, vast majority of punters won’t be arbing, just taking the best price they think is going to be available. Even mugs look to get the best price available.
Value Is EverythingI use Betfair for the odd big priced selection, but don’t generally watch it to se when a horse is close to shortening- do you just do that by check the amount left in the blue available to take?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Whenever the exchange price is level or fractionally below the bookies price they adjust it very quickly
They are much slower though to raise the price when a horse is drifting
“Paddy Power restricted my account shortly after they bought/found out I buy Timeform and my Betfair record.”
Ironically Paddy also restricted me when they found out a few details about me! I’d probably have a case against them as I saw a Paddy Power person had been snooping on my LinkedIn profile – data protection/GDPR anyone? I like to think I’ve got a pretty much spotless record with my bets too: would be a dismissal offence if anything bet was shown to be me acting on inside information etc. Plenty of ugly drifters dotted through my bet history if they look closely enough.
No, I wouldn’t be “shocked”, LS. Yes, some deserve to be restricted. But whether a punter is a serious punter that goes through form or not, I’d expect most punters to try and get the best price. It is only natural/sensible to hold off betting when the market is “static” or with lots of that price available – in the hope even bigger becomes available. Only natural/sensible to get on when the price starts shortening and only natural/sensible for that to be “consistent behaviour”… And the quickest way to do that is keeping an eye on betfair. Odds comparisson sites are slower to react. The vast, vast majority of punters won’t be arbing, just taking the best price they think is going to be available. Even mugs look to get the best price available.
Honestly I still think you’d be shocked at some of the things I see. Maybe the ratio is something like 70/30 – ‘vast vast majority’ is way too strong. And of course, a lot of that paragraph is true RE: taking best price, especially when odds comparison is so readily available via Oddschecker for everyone. There is an enormous population of people with arb-finding software like OddsMonkey guided by threads on forums like MoneySavingExpert and ArbUsers. These types are very easy to distinguish from price-sensitive racing enthusiasts.
Whenever the exchange price is level or fractionally below the bookies price they adjust it very quickly
They are much slower though to raise the price when a horse is drifting
Interesting. Probably true but depends on how lazy the trader is! For me, I’ve got people in my ear nagging away about the importance of being competitive with overrounds – there are even alert features in the trading software that shame you to all when you’re being too stingy.
Of course there are times when you might have more than one meeting and you’re just firefighting movers across four or five races at once, but the pushouts follow eventually.
We were the first major UK firm (in the Coral days) to offer enhanced win-only/place-only markets, but they’ve never been popular.
Respect it’s hard for that sort of initiative not to be thought of as bookie spin. Your “enhanced win-only”, is punters Reduced Each Way.
I seem to remember those Corals enhanced win-only, where very few prices were any bigger than other bookmakers prices… Which to be fair isn’t really their/your fault. British over-rounds too small to enhance every price. Therefore you’re only going to get a small amount of increased win-only custom whilst your each way custom drops. So can see it may not be fully effective.
However, what we are really talking about is less competitive races being in favour of each way punters. Bookmakers restrict accounts when punters take each way terms that are not in the bookmaker’s favour… Yet are extremely happy to take each way bets when each way terms are vastly in their favour. Is that not hypicritical? Maybe if bookmakers change their rules to offer enhanced (FAIR) each way terms AS STANDARD in races that under their current rules favour bookmakers AS STANDARD. eg In ALL competitive races not just the big handicaps/races… Then punters might be ok with bookies reducing each way terms when those terms are in favour of punters.
Value Is EverythingIt’s an interesting debate though and I do enjoy talking about industry issues (and racing in general) with you. I know I come across rather abrupt more often than not but hope you know that I respect you and admire what you do.
Ditto LS.
Value Is EverythingI wish we could do a podcast or something where everyone can chime in – I think we’d have some really spicy discussions!
Now that would be one sided.
Am ok if able to look through what I’ve said and change it where needed before posting.
I’d freeze in a podcast!!!
Value Is EverythingSt Leger:
27 points @ 14/1 Broome
86 points @ 2.6/1 (betfair) Logician (min 85/40)If you aren’t on Broome yet, DON’T!
Value Is Everything
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