- This topic has 1,516 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 4 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Yes LS, I can understand there are reasons why anyone might think Le Brivido or Laurens might be better than their distances back from Mustashry… And Accidental Agent also did better than he did in 2017’s Lockinge before going on to Queen Anne victory. So people are thinking the Lockinge form could be changed around. But they all have quite a bit of improvement to find in order to beat Mustashry. If it’s not too soft for the Stoute horse he’ll take plenty of beating. Had excuses for most runs on the soft side of good and it may be Good ground anyway.
My idea of Mustashry’s fair price is currently 20% 4/1; that would probably go up to around 25% 3/1 if genuine good ground. Barney Roy needs to improve on his two runs this term, but if back to three year old form this would be well within his ability. I have him as a fair 18% 9/2. I’ve got a good price Le Brivido, but 4/1 with you bookie chappies is much too short now. I suppose it’s because you’ve now got big liabilities. Betfair are now 5.6/1 but my price for him is 12.5% 7/1. ie Mustashry 20% + Barney Roy 18% + Le Brivido 12.5% = 50.5%. At the moment there is one outsider am looking to back, waiting for my bet to be taken.
Value Is EverythingAgreed entirely – Le Brivido does look chronically short.
Interesting to note from our speed figures that Accidental Agent actually ran to a higher level in this year’s Lockinge than he did in winning last year’s Queen Anne! Could still be on the up.
Ante-post pricing is rarely anything to do with liabilities, GT. You take a bowl of rice on these races ante-post versus the turnover on the day and your singles liabilities on the off will typically be the SP fav or morning paper fav no matter how the market moves in the early going.
Tipsters are surprisingly influential in weak markets: Holding/Calvin/Kealy can drive a price down to a point where their followers are ‘value-pwning’ themselves.
Surprised Michael Holding has gone for Le Brivido considering how close he is to Sir Michael.
More than most horses, Le Brivido’s chance is likely to be determined by how fast they go. Connections have so far been happy to drop him out the back and hope for either a fast pace or are they fearful he struggles to stay a truly run mile? Surprisingly there are no Coolmore pacemakers. Will Matterhorn or one of the second/third strings of Godolphin take on Laurens?If I remember rightly, LS; Simon Rowlands sectional times analysis of last year’s Queen Anne showed that although they didn’t go overly fast early, the third quarter (the quarter where Lightning Spear made his move) was too quick… Leading to hold up horses Accidental Agent and Lord Glitters coming through late for career bests and the best horse Lightning Spear losing out… Making the latter a good bet in the Sussex!
Lockinge seemed a race run at more equal fractions so not surprised Accidental Agent’s speed rating was better at Newbury than Ascot. 
Value Is EverythingKing’s Stand:
32 points @ 9/1 (B365) Mabs Cross (min 8/1)
23 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Equilateral (min 18/1)Value Is EverythingSt James’s Palace:
74 points @ 7/2 (WH) Too Darn Hot (min 3/1)
If you are not yet on I suggest 59 points @ 5/2.Value Is EverythingSt James’s Palace:
74 points @ 7/2 (WH) Too Darn Hot (min 3/1)
39 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) King Of Comedy (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingSt James’s Palace:
74 points @ 7/2 (WH) Too Darn Hot (min 3/1)
39 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) King Of Comedy (min 13/2)
saver:
10 points @ 12/1 (B365) Shaman (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingKing’s Stand:
32 points @ 9/1 (B365) Mabs Cross (min 8/1)
23 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Equilateral (min 18/1)
saver:
19 points @ 3/1 (L) Blue Point (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingIf you haven’t already laid threat would you recommend doing so now at 4.4 ginger? Or does the ground suit him now, so he’s no longer underpriced?
Although haven’t gone through the decs yet, Istabraq… I certainly wouldn’t be backing Threat @ 4.3. Reason I laid was twofold, Yes, looked like being on the soft side but Visinari (and a few others) looked like turning up too. So wouldn’t Lay him either @ 4.4. Not unless the rains come and change the going… and if that happens he’ll probably drift out to a price I wouldn’t Lay either.
Value Is EverythingCoventry Stakes:
40 points @ 10/1 (B365) Threat
LAY 17 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Threat (min 6/1)
51 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Visinari (min 9/2)
17 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Fort Myers (min 18/1)
30 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Guildsman (min 7/1)
saver:
11 points @ 11/1 (B365) Monoski (min 10/1)Value Is Everything2019 Queen Anne:
25 points @ 20/1 Century Dream
55 points @ 5/1 (B365) Mustashry
32 points @ 9/1 (B365) Le Brivido
saver:
22 points @ 6/1 (PP) Barney Roy (min 11/2)
Another:
10 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) Mustashry (min 5/1)
10 points @ 25/1 (B365) Mattahorn (min 22/1)Value Is EverythingGotcha
if you do make a 100% book for 1st race could you post it here if get a chance and if your not making one, no bother
At the moment, this is my 100% book, Istabraq.
Mustashry 21% Between 4/1 and 7/2
Barney Roy 16.5% 5/1
Le Brivido 13.25% 13/2
Laurens 12.5% 7/1
Accidental Agent 6.25% 15/1
Hazampour 5.75% 16/1
Matterhorn 5.25% 18/1
Lord Glitters 3.75% 25/1
Olmedo 3.25% 28/1
Beat The Bank 2.75% 33/1
One Master 2.5% 40/1
Sharjah Bridge 2% 50/1
Dream Castle 1.5% 66/1
Romanised 1.5% 66/1
Stormy Atlantic 1.5% 66/1
Mythical Magic 0.75% 132/1Value Is EverythingKing’s Stand:
32 points @ 9/1 (B365) Mabs Cross (min 8/1)
23 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Equilateral (min 18/1)
saver:
19 points @ 3/1 (L) Blue Point (min 3/1)
33 points @ 9/4 (PP) Battaash (min 15/8)Value Is EverythingCoventry Stakes:
40 points @ 10/1 (B365) Threat
LAY 17 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Threat (min 6/1)
51 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Visinari (min 9/2)
17 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Fort Myers (min 18/1)
30 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Guildsman (min 7/1)
saver:
11 points @ 11/1 (B365) Monoski (min 10/1)If you haven’t laid that 17 points Threat yet Istabraq, you can do so now @ 3.3/1. Because (as likely now) the rains come – he’s likely to drift.
Value Is Everything^^^ That 100% book above is likely to change if the rains come.
Mustashry‘s chance would be less (but not as much as some believe). Le Brivido am not sure would stay a mile on proper soft, but good-soft would see his chance improve. Barney Roy should be equally effective on good or good-soft. Laurens hasn’t run on soft but good-soft is fine and the added test of stamina will help, her chance would improve on good-soft. Accidental Agent‘s Group 1 form is on a sound surface, but his best handicap form was on a softer surface. Stormy Atlantic would love soft ground but his form is fully exposed as not good enough to win a race like this – although could be in the first 5 if others don’t act on it. The one softer ground would help more than any other is probably Mattahorn. Best form is on the AW but ran a pretty good race first time on turf when a close second in the Huxley… If fully effective on turf doesn’t have much to find and soft surface will bring out his stamina. Expect him to be well backed.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.