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2019 1000 Guineas:
37 points @ 12/1 Skitter Scatter
30 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Mot Juste (min 14/1)
20 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 25/1)Value Is Everything2019 1000 Guineas:
37 points @ 12/1 Skitter Scatter
30 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Mot Juste (min 14/1)
20 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 25/1)
37 points @ 6/1 (B365) Just Wonderful (min 11/2)
saver:
32 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Qabala (min 7/2)Value Is Everything2019 Oaks:
23 points @ 25/1 Hermosa
LAY 11 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 28/1)Seems less likely to run now and/or Coolmore have a few they think better of. So just reduced liabilities to half.
Value Is Everything2:20 Newmarket:
46 points each way @ 15/2 (C first 2, 1/4 odds) Worth Waiting (min 11/2)Value Is EverythingCan’t see Nell Gwyn third and fourth Alpine Hidaway and Look Around staying and both pretty much exposed as below top class. I’ve also done Nell Gwyn runner-up Mot Juste @ 18/1 as a main bet, now. Should be suited by both the extra furlong and a truer run/stamina mile. Considering all the O’Brien horses (Mr and Master) – and all of them will be suited by a stamina mile – can’t see this being slowly run. That said, at the prices I want to be against Master’s Iridessa at this trip. Given she seems stamina laden, (EDIT: Changed my mind!!!) why should she be amongst the favourites when Hermosa wasn’t beaten far in the Fillies Mile and is available at massive odds? So the other outsider I’ve done is Hermosa @ 33/1. Although have some stamina (and jockey) doubts about the favourite, if anything walks away with this it’ll be Qabala. So – with the yard also still in good form – have had a saver. As said earlier, the one horse I don’t see staying is Fairyland and she’s not just gone for a walk, but a hike in the market. Love to see David Elsworth finally have an English classic winner, but Dandhu only scraped home, the second and third Iconic Choice and Star Terms have fair chances of reversing placings too, but I don’t rate the Fred Darling form. Dandhu beaten fairly easily by Just Wonderful in the Rockfel. Just Wonderful might have two ways of running (inconsistent) but is the stable first string with (it seems) more confidence growing in her (that may be more to do with Magna Grecia), may still improve further and the one O’Brien filly sure to be at her best distance. Had a 3/4 main bet on Just Wonderful. Fleeting beat Star Terms further than Dandhu, but looked all about stamina in the May Hill and (stand out performance) I thought Fleeting could be flattered. However, along with Mot Juste, the other I believe is massively over-priced is my 12/1 ante-post bet, Skitter Scatter. Moyglare form looks excellent – staying on at 7f and going further clear to beat Lady Kaya 2 lengths. SS should imo be a clear second fav! Oxx yard are yet to have a winner this season and I suppose if she’s unfit that could be valid reason for the price… But plenty of the yard’s horses have run well (to form) of late. I have Skitter Scatter as a fair 16.75% 5/1 chance and is available @ 7/1. Lady Kaya herself is on “form” a good price, but not sure she’s going to find any more for the step up in trip and far less likely here to get her own way up front. Only other runner Garrel Glen looks hopelessly outclassed, wouldn’t back her at 2000/1.
So it’s Skitter Scatter, Mot Juste and Hermosa the best results for me, Just Wonderful would be good too; saved on Qabala.
EDIT: I’ve just seen a replay of the Fillies Mile on the Timeform website and had to think again about Iridessa. They’re right that she travelled through the race with more ease than I gave her credit for. So her chances of have enough speed here are (although not definite) more than I thought. Has also increased my belief Hermosa is (or was at yesterday’s prices) good value.
Here’s the Timeform article, I don’t agree that Iridessa’s the best bet, but warrents a saver.
Value Is Everything2019 1000 Guineas:
37 points @ 12/1 Skitter Scatter
30 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Mot Juste (min 14/1)
20 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 25/1)
37 points @ 6/1 (B365) Just Wonderful (min 11/2)
saver:
32 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Qabala (min 7/2)If you’re not already on Skitter Scatter I’d suggest a 51 points bet @ 7/1, the same 30 and 20 points bets on Mot Juste and Hermosa; but changing Just Wonderful to just a saver 22 points bet along with 31 Qabala.
Value Is Everything2019 1000 Guineas:
37 points @ 12/1 Skitter Scatter
30 points @ 18/1 (betfair) Mot Juste (min 14/1)
20 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 25/1)
37 points @ 6/1 (B365) Just Wonderful (min 11/2)
saver:
32 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Qabala (min 7/2)
Part saver (see above):
15 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Iridessa (min 7/1)
LAY 14 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Just Wonderful (min 6/1) to make her now just a saver.Value Is Everything2019 Oaks:
23 points @ 25/1 Hermosa
LAY 11 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 28/1)
36 points @ 14/1 (B365) Iridessa (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingActually, with plenty of support for Hermosa today suggesting she’s still well thought of:
2019 Oaks:
23 points @ 25/1 Hermosa
LAY 11 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 28/1)
36 points @ 14/1 (B365) Iridessa (min 11/1)
4 points @ 25/1 (PP) Hermosa (min 20/1)Value Is Everything2:20 Newmarket:
46 points each way @ 15/2 (C first 2, 1/4 odds) Worth Waiting (min 11/2)
saver:
15 points (win) @ 6.8/1 (betfair) Nyaleti (min 6/1)Value Is Everything2019 Oaks:
23 points @ 25/1 Hermosa
LAY 11 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Hermosa (min 28/1)
36 points @ 14/1 (B365) Iridessa (min 11/1)
4 points @ 25/1 (PP) Hermosa (min 20/1)
LAY 12 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Pink Dogwood (min 11/2)Value Is EverythingCheers, Jack. As can be seen by my minimum price for Worth Waiting and the big stake – thought Worth Waiting massively over-priced yesterday. Think people were relying on Stoute’s record with improving 4 year olds, where as Varacious’s ability seemed exposed at three; worth opposing. Now for the Guineas; although tbh my ante-post bet Skitter Scatter – friendless in the market – looks ominous for her fitness. However, Hermosa has halved in price since yesterday!
Value Is Everything
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