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2:45 Leicester:
55 points @ 5/1 (B365) Laugh A Minute (min 9/2)
65 points @ 11/4 (B365) Eqtidaar (min 11/4)
Part Saver:
23 points @ 2.9/1 (betfair) Hey Gaman (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingGood question, Istabraq. Sometimes big fields can be more difficult working out how much pace there’s likely to be. But most of the time it is just a matter of taking longer studying. If anything I find there’s more value, both by numbers of horses being value and amount of value each horse has. Particularly love staying handicaps over jumps. I also find non-handicap jumps races uncompetitive away from Cheltenham and don’t like races with odds-on favourites – so that means I’m working out more handicaps/more bigger fields over jumps.
For me, although there can be equally as good value in big field flat handicaps – eg Stewards Cup winner my biggest winner last season – I find it’s more time consuming working out big fields in this sphere… Probably wouldn’t bother with the Stewards Cup if Goodwood had a better finish to Glorious Goodwood. With flat racing there’s usually enough Pattern races not to bother too much with big fields… Especially nowadays when – away from festivals – most of the best races are on a Saturday. Often able to work out three (or more) Group/listed races in the same time as one big flat handicap – you’re right, it is is just a matter of time.
Value Is EverythingOne more question: would your knowledge of finding value in irish horse racing be equal to GB horse racing ? As in would your ROI in each be roughly the same?
I remember you said you preferred british racing before but I can’t find the comment, not sure if that would also mean you’ve more knowledge in british racing
Hi GT, just wondering if you intend to put anything up for Longchamp tomorrow with 3 group races and two listed races. I recall several good results from your tips on French racing in the past
There was a time I didn’t bet in Irish racing at all (or very little) Istabraq. Used to only get involved in one or two Group 1’s, so not really enough races to judge an ROI; some good years and some not so good. But if the small sample can be relied on (including Capri in the Irish Derby) have done pretty well in recent years… So started betting in Group 3’s and better this season. Will see how it goes.
This only my second Group 3 Irish bet in a long long time. My first was a late (too late to get on here) on Magical the other day; so 100% record so far. 
That said, Southern France seems to be more popular than stable companion Capri in early exchanges, so it’s possible the latter is not as fit. So is a bit disconcerting for today’s race if that trend continues – Capri might not have the chance I thought.
Value Is EverythingI had a look at the Ganay today, Mtoto; had hoped the fav might be somewhere near evens to back him. But don’t like betting in races where there’s a long odds-on shot unless it’s a good each way bet. On “form” Waldgeist would’ve been a possible in that respect. Technically has the best form but there’s a probability he’s best at around 12f and also sometimes needs his first run after a break. Slow pace would place too much emphasis on speed for him too and… Ghaiyyath will probably get an easy lead so can understand why our 10 To Follow horse is long odds-on.
The Arc has become a favourite betting race of mine in recent years, suspect that’s what you’re thinking of Mtoto. Might be one or two Group 2’s I’ll have a look at during the year (probably not) but don’t think I know enough about French horses to go any lower. All or vast majority of my French bets will be on Group 1’s.
Value Is Everything2019 2000 Guineas:
30 points @ 20/1 Calyx
39 points @ 13/2 Too Darn Hot
LAY 15 points @ 8.8/1 Calyx
23 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Kick On (min 22/1)Value Is Everything2019 2000 Guineas:
30 points @ 20/1 Calyx
39 points @ 13/2 Too Darn Hot
LAY 15 points @ 8.8/1 Calyx
23 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Kick On (min 22/1)
18 points @ 28/1 (betfair) Urban Icon (min 25/1)Value Is Everything2019 2000 Guineas:
30 points @ 20/1 Calyx
39 points @ 13/2 Too Darn Hot
LAY 15 points @ 8.8/1 Calyx
23 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Kick On (min 22/1)
18 points @ 28/1 (betfair) Urban Icon (min 25/1)
57 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Magna Grecia (min 5/1)Value Is Everything2:55 Newmarket:
74 points @ 4/1 (Unibet) Young Rascal (min 100/30)
savers:
41 points @ 2/1 (Unibet) Coronet (min 15/8)
9 points @ 14/1 (betfair) Red Verdon (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingAny thoughts on power of darkness at 7\2 in the first Newmarket race ginger? Does that sound value to you ?
I won’t be looking through the whole field, Istabraq. Rarely have a bet in handicaps these days. However, have had a quick look. Seems to me you’re right that on form Power Of Darkness has an excellent chance, but so too does Al Muffriah. Both POD’s trainer Marcus Tregonning and Haggas in terrific form. The one negative I’d have against POD is he’s usually held up or even dropped out the back for a late run. If they don’t go a good pace might be up against it… Can’t see many prominent racers, but they do include Al Muffriah. Possible the latter will get the run of the race. That said, it does look as though one of those two will probably win and the combined price is still odds against! Maybe back both or one the main bet and save on the other.
Value Is Everything2:20 Newmarket:
39 points @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Equilateral (min 15/2)Value Is Everything2:20 Newmarket:
39 points @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Equilateral (min 15/2)
26 points @ 12/1 (betfair) Judicial (min 10/1)Value Is Everything2019 2000 Guineas:
30 points @ 20/1 Calyx
39 points @ 13/2 Too Darn Hot
LAY 15 points @ 8.8/1 Calyx
23 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Kick On (min 22/1)
18 points @ 28/1 (betfair) Urban Icon (min 25/1)
57 points @ 6/1 (betfair) Magna Grecia (min 5/1)
saver:
7 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Great Scot (min 25/1)Value Is Everything
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