Home › Forums › Betting Chat – Bets & Tips › Ginger's Winners
- This topic has 1,516 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 6 years, 4 months ago by
KevMc.
- AuthorPosts
- September 16, 2018 at 10:45 #1374357
Oh This Is Us is normally always held up in midfield Ginge.
He travels better with cover
You said yourself that he has the speed and that’s what Moore rode him for
The horse just wasn’t good enough today but ran a good race in line with his oddsOh This Is Us is usually held up, Nathan; he’s not “always held up” as you claim… And as I said before the race there was no natural pace in the race. Oh This Is Us had raced nearer to the pace (in some of his races) than the vast majority of runners. Not asking Ryan to make the running particularly. Just be more prominent – tracking the pace would’ve been fine – like Crowley did with the (much more than OTIU) usually held up winner Mutashry. In what was always likely to be a slowish run race Crowley did the right thing with Mutashry in getting a fairly prominent position. Ryan didn’t, despite the horse tracking pace when a good second to Arod in a similarly run Windsor listed race and tracked pace when winning off a slow pace from a mark of 105 at Meydan in the Spring.
Holding such a horse up in a slowish run race is asking for trouble. Resulting in being in a poor position when trying to make ground at a time those in front are also quickening and/or difficult to find a way through in a tight finish.
Ryan got found out by a simple tactical error.
Value Is EverythingSeptember 16, 2018 at 11:07 #1374361Ryan got caught out ‘moore’. by not taking the gap between Unfortunately and Mushashry over 2 out, instead he seemed to be waiting for a gap to appear between the fav and Tomyris. He should have gone then on a horse he knows stays 8.
Well that’s my take on it anyway
September 16, 2018 at 11:08 #1374362I wrote normally always held up which means sometimes he’s not. It’s his running style which suits him best.
He had to take a pull early as he had no space, perhaps he was aiming to be more prominent. The horse is a strong traveller whatever the pace and perhaps if Ryan had pushed him in the early stages the horse may have got keen, I don’t know.
In the latter part of the race I think Ryan got it wrong as he was behind the winner looking overly confident (opposite to God Given/best horse in race) the other day. Then two in the blue came along and he had to switch costing him. I think Ryan’s cocky-ness in the 2nd half of the race was more to his blame than the early part.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
September 16, 2018 at 11:11 #1374363^ spot on
September 16, 2018 at 11:33 #1374365Irish St Leger:
56 points @ 7/2 (B365) Weekender (min 100/30)Value Is EverythingSeptember 16, 2018 at 12:03 #1374367“Normally always held up” does not make sense, Nathan. Either a horse is normally held up (meaning usually) or always held up (meaning always). Fair enough if you meant the former.
So you two agree with me that Ryan wasn’t in as good a position as he ought to have been when the kick for home happened? If Ryan had no room early then he should have allowed his horse to get nearer earlier. ie Get in to a position where he’s tracking the pace before they went for home in earnest… And as you say, he had good opportunities to do that. Simple tactical error. There’s not much difference in all three of our views that I can see; I’ll take that.
Value Is EverythingSeptember 16, 2018 at 12:11 #1374368Irish St Leger:
56 points @ 7/2 (B365) Weekender (min 100/30)
81 points @ 9/4 (B365) Flag Of Honour (min 2/1)Value Is EverythingSeptember 16, 2018 at 13:41 #1374375no I don’t agree with you GT, I thought he was at fault by not taking the massive gap over 2 out, he was only about a length behind the winner then(in fact he has to pull him off the winners heels) which in my opinion cost him momentum at a vital time. If Moore takes the yawning gap, he don’t get slightly stopped in his run
September 16, 2018 at 16:23 #1374380Fair enough, nwalton.
Value Is EverythingSeptember 16, 2018 at 18:17 #1374400Great picks again
September 17, 2018 at 15:44 #1375227Thanks Istabraq, although both wins yesterday were favourites.
Whісh wоuld уоu sау уоur bеttеr аt, flаt оr јumр rасіng [оr еquаl] gіngеr?
Sorry I missed your earlier question.
Suppose it’s about equal these days. Used to be better over jumps, but sometimes struggle to maintain enthusiasm mid-week as even more of the good stuff is centred around Saturday. Am more interested in handicaps over fences so the strike rate is a little down, but prices generally bigger makes up for that.Usually keep to the flat until after Champions Day at Newmarket.
Might start the jumps again Wetherby Charlie Hall day.Value Is EverythingSeptember 18, 2018 at 09:49 #1375264Yeah well done GT. Great tipping. Been a great year so far. Surely one of your best??
September 18, 2018 at 13:03 #1375277It is one of my best flat seasons so far, Mtoto; hardest part of the season is yet to come though. tbh rarely do as well at the back end. We’ve been lucky this summer with pretty much a sound surface throughout. Now got to suffer changeable going at best and at worst all change on form with soft going as the norm… This also the time of year some horses coats begin to change and go “over the top”. When I used to go racing it was really noticeable the horses still with shiny and even dappled coats (what you want to see) were mostly from trainers in form. Some dull before going wintry/hairy (not good); although some can still run well with poor coats, becomes more likely they’ll run poorly – these were often from yards in poor form too. So unless a trainer is in particularly good form I’m reducing stakes.
Value Is EverythingSeptember 20, 2018 at 13:55 #13753903:35 Ayr:
60 points @ 4.3/1 (betfair) Dubai Horizon (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingSeptember 20, 2018 at 14:09 #13753933:35 Ayr:
60 points @ 4.3/1 (betfair) Dubai Horizon (min 7/2)
17 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Dolphin Vista (min 16/1)
savers:
29 points @ 3/1 (B365) Morando (min 3/1)
10 points @ 11/1 (betfair) Aspetar (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingSeptember 20, 2018 at 15:41 #1375397well done
September 20, 2018 at 20:49 #1375423Thanks nwalton.
Regretted reducing stakes for the ground. LOLValue Is Everything - AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.