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2:05 Ascot
65 points @ 4/1 (L) Charbel (min 7/2)
13 points @ 20/1 (PP) Hammersly Lake (min 18/1)
saver:
65 points @ 6/5 (Sky) Politologue (min 5/4)Value Is EverythingAre you betting on the 2:25 haydock or do you prefer races with 6\7 or less horses in it?
I prefer big handicap chases to big handicap hurdles, Istabraq. Will look at the 3:15 Ascot as the only other Saturday race am interested in betting-wise. But those bets will be a while yet – probably between 11:00 and midnight.
Will also be having bets more often when the weather/ground turns (not just Saturday/weekend).
Value Is Everything3:15 Ascot
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gardefort (min 16/1)
60 points @ 9/2 (betfair) Cyrname (min 4/1)
25 points @ 13.5/1 (betfair) Speredek (min 12/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Ascot
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gardefort (min 16/1)
60 points @ 9/2 (betfair) Cyrname (min 4/1)
25 points @ 13.5/1 (betfair) Speredek (min 12/1)
saver:
7 points @ 20/1 (PP) Valdez (min 18/1)
one more main bet to come in this raceValue Is Everything3:15 Ascot
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gardefort (min 16/1)
60 points @ 9/2 (betfair) Cyrname (min 4/1)
25 points @ 13.5/1 (betfair) Speredek (min 12/1)
saver:
7 points @ 20/1 (PP) Valdez (min 18/1)
23 points @ 18/1 (betfair) One For Billy (min 15/1)Value Is Everything2:40 Ascot
75 points @ 9/4 (PP) We Have A Dream (min 2/1)
saver:
85 points @ 0.9/1 (brtfair) If The Cap Fits (min 10/11)Value Is EverythingGT, given your comments on Might Bite’s performance on the Betfair Chase thread would you try to lay off the King George bet?
No, at least not yet Mtoto.
Don’t know who is going to turn up. Take a look at the betting…
Second fav Waiting Patiently hasn’t run for ages/had an injury.
Native River would need a much more attacking ride than today and hasn’t run right-handed in a long time. Could even see him missing Kempton now there’s no bonus to go for – have the enties for the Welsh National been made yet?
Bristol De Mai best right-handed.
Politologue doubtful stayer.
Altior won’t run unless Might Bite doesn’t.
Will Bellshill come over?So Might Bite could even shorten up from his current price before Boxing Day.
However, even if MB does not win – can see him travelling extremely well to the home turn.
I may let the bet stand and then put an in-running LAY bet at shorter than my ante-post bet and hope it gets taken. Possibly two bets, one @ around 7/4 and another odds-on.Thistlecrack could be the one to back, but with his fragility is no ante-post bet. Possibly day of race or NRNB.
Value Is EverythingDоеs lа bаguе аu rоі lооk vаluе tо уоu аt 1.38/1?
Lа Ваguе Аu Rоі gоt thе bеttеr оf bоth Lоstіntrаnslаtіоn аnd Таlkіsсhеар оn сhаsе dеbut lаst tіmе аnd mееts thеm оn thе ехасt sаmе tеrms tоdау, rесеіvіng 7lb frоm еасh оf thеm. Тhаt іs bесаusе thаt rасе, whіlе а strоng ріесе оf fоrm, wаs оnlу rаtеd а сlаss 3 sо shе gоеs unреnаlіsеd hеrе.
Ѕріrіtоfthеgаmеs аlsо mаdе а suссеssful сhаsе dеbut lаst tіmе. Тhе fоrm wаs рrоbаblу nо strоngеr thаn thаt асhіеvеd bу Lа Ваguе Аu Rоі but іt wаs dеsіgnаtеd а Lіstеd rасе whісh mеаns hе саrrіеs а 5lb реnаltу, lеаvіng hіm tо соnсеdе 12lb tо thе mаrе whо іs оffісіаllу 2lb hіs suреrіоr. Ѕhе gоеs wеll аt Νеwburу wіth а 2 frоm 2 rесоrd (lаndеd Lіstеd nоvісе hurdlе оn оthеr vіsіt) аnd wіll аlsо hаndlе thе sоftеr grоund thаn shе fасеd lаst tіmе. Тhе hоре fоr thе оthеrs tо rеvеrsе thе fоrm wоuld bе thе slіghtlу shоrtеr trір.
3:00 Newbury:
70 points @ 3/1 (B365) Sam Spinner (min 11/4)
saver:
28 points @ 2.65/1 (betfair) Wholestone (min 9/4)Value Is EverythingI had a look at that Novice, Istabraq and couldn’t split the pair; La Bague Au Roi and Lostintranslation. Both imo have what it takes to be top class over fences and when they’ve had so little experience it’s all about who makes the most improvement first to second time out. One horse beating another last time out has less than usual to do with a race like this. If they were better prices could’ve backed them both – one saver and one main bet – but imo it’s no two horse race. Spiritofthegames also a highly promising novice chaser with only one chase under his girth. His Chepstow effort may not be up to LBAR and LIT, but could have a lot more improvement to come… although may not have the pace. Talkischeap beaten fair and square by the market principles, but again – only one run over fences and can’t be discounted.
If having to tip one I’d go with Lostintranslation; may get a softish lead, impresses me with attitude and – judged by one race – jumping. But in a race where horses have so little experience (1 1/2 lengths isn’t much when anything could improve 10+ lbs) I need to have a bigger margin of error and (for me) nothing stands out as good enough value for a bet.
Value Is Everything
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