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From previous thread:
2019 Champion Hurdle:
86 points @ 7/2 (B365) Buveur D’Air (min 100/30)
Now:
87 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Samcro (min 9/4)If not on BDA yet I suggest only a 25 points saver on BDA.
For thread purposes I may come back with a small LAY bet on BDA to lessen liabilities.
Do think it must be odds-on one of the two will win in March. imo Their fair chances are around 33.3% 2/1 Samcro, 26.7% 11/4 Buveur D’Air (60% 4/6 the pair).Value Is EverythingI’m increasing stakes this season.
For those that don’t already know, my staking plan takes in to account what chance I believe the horse has got of winning and how much value I believe is in the price. Bigger the chance of winning the more is staked; the more value the more is staked.
Was:
My idea of its fair chance of winning (in percentages).
Minus available odds (in percentages).
Times 7.
Plus my idea of its fair chance.Now X 8.
So Samcro (above) is:
33.33 – 26.67 = 6.66
6.66 x 8 = 53.28
53.28 + 33.33 = 86.61
rounded up to 87 points @ 11/4.Because of the added security, when choosing each way it’ll be the win bet X 0.67 ew. ie What would be a 30 points win bet becomes 20 points each way (40 points overall staked).
Whatever each point is worth is entirely up to you. Bear in mind stake per race will usually be between 100 and 150 points, sometimes a little more and rarely up to 200… And although I fully expect to make a good overall profit and my strategy is of maintaining a steady flow of profits with a high strike rate (somewhere between 40 and 60% SR)… There can be an occasional inevitable losing run where over 1000 points could be lost within a two day meeting and/or around 600 in a day. So – if following my tips -bear that in mind (compared to your own finances) when judging how much a point should be worth to you.
I do use “savers” (getting back what I lose on other bets in that race) which are horses I believe are good value but not as good as the main bets. Can have one, two, three or more main bets in one race, depending on how much value I can find. Savers are basically in order to keep my strike rate ticking over, keeping confidence high which in turn enables me to study races/bet in the same way that’s proved profitable for so many years. If not liking so many bets you may prefer to ignore the savers; but it’ll drop the strike rate and increase losing runs too.
Value Is EverythingAlways good to hear your thoughts especially on pace and how a race is likely to develop. I’m sure I’m one of many who watch your threads with interest. Enjoy the winter
2019 Champion Hurdle:
86 points @ 7/2 (B365) Buveur D’Air (min 100/30)
Now:
87 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Samcro (min 9/4)
LAY 23 points @ 3.5/1 (betfair) Buveur D’Air (min 3.5/1)
(effectively reducing the BDA back bet to 63 instead of 86)Value Is EverythingThanks GAG.
Should be an interesting Winter/Spring.
Samcro Vs Buveur D’Air only one special match up.
Altior Vs Footpad (although latter might go Ryanair).
Native River Vs Might Bite Vs Presenting Percy.
Reading Timeform Chasers And Hurdlers has got me excited for the new season. Value Is EverythingEDIT……..CANCELLED BET……..CANCELLED BET……..
JNWine Chase (Down Royal Saturday)
46 points @ 8/1 (B365) Outlander (min 13/2)
EDIT……..CANCELLED BET……..CANCELLED BET……..Value Is EverythingJNWine Chase (Down Royal Saturday)
46 points @ 8/1 (B365) Outlander (min 13/2)LOL,
Road To Respect was not included in the declarations/market, so – with RTR now in the market – Outlander will be a bigger price than 8/1. Bet365 have given me my money back. So CANCEL THIS BET.Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase
LAY 25 points @ 2.65/1 (betfair) Bristol De Mai (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingJNWine Chase Down Royal Tomorrow:
35 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 17/2)Value Is EverythingCharlie Hall Wetherby tomorrow:
46 points @ 5/1 (B365) Virgilio (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingJNWine Chase Down Royal Tomorrow:
35 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 17/2)
10/1 gone. Suspect the 9.5/1 on betfair won’t last long either. Get on! Value Is EverythingCharlie Hall Wetherby tomorrow:
46 points @ 5/1 (B365) Virgilio (min 5/1)
saver:
34 points @ 11/4 (B365) Double Shuffle (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingJNWine Chase Down Royal Tomorrow:
35 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 17/2)
18 points @ 16/1 (B365) Woodland Opera (min 14/1)
82 points @ 15/8 (Sky) Road To Respect (min 7/4)Value Is EverythingWest Yorkshire Hurdle:
37 points @ 8/1 (WH) Keepers Hill (min 7/1)
37 points @ 8/1 (PP) Monbeg Theatre (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingBetting-wise am disappointed Wholestone and Clyne are out, Mtoto; wanted to be against both as they don’t seem to like fast ground. But connections have done the right thing for their horses. Olde Guard hasn’t been at his best at 3m, but those efforts were on soft. This surface won’t test stamina so much and (unlike earlier in his career) 2m on good at Kempton last time tested speed too much. Probably needs further than 2 miles now, whether he needs 3m? I’d certainly have been against him on a more stamina sapping surface, they’ll need to go a strong pace to test Olde Guard. Having said that Monbeg Theatre is just the sort to do it; front runner who seems to go out strongly. Hopefully he and outsider High Secret won’t cut each others throats. Monbeg Theatre needs to improve but is on an upward curve. Unlike other market principles is proven in really good form last time out/this season – and that came at Wetherby in very similar ground. Stable in good form too. Keepers Hill comes back to hurdles after jumping fences poorly last season. Seemed to have more to offer as a staying hurdler when last seen in this sphere. With prices what they are now there’s not so much value. Both shortened a little even without the rule 4. Maybe best to back one and save on the other, trouble is having trouble splitting them… Ip dip dog sh…..
If you haven’t backed anything yet – and if I have to say it would be:
52 points @ 3/1 (B365) Monbeg Theatre (min 3/1)
saver:
18 points @ 3/1 (B365) Keepers Hill (min 3/1)Value Is Everything
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