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3:00 Newbury:
25 points each way @ 12/1 (PP) Colin’s Sister (min 17/2)
25 points each way @ 12/1 (PP) Wholestone (min 17/2)I have ante-post bets on Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup and Unowhatimeanharry for the Stayers Hurdle. Granted the former’s form is way ahead and might win with a lot in hand; but this is his reappearance after injury and the latter’s giving weight – so neither look value to me at current prices. Colin Tizzard is quite Bullish about his charge, but he’s an otimist by nature and I wouldn’t expect anything else from him. Taqin Du Seiul isn’t out of it on his 3 1/2 lengths 4th to Yanworth at Aintree final start, but Jonjo isn’t yet in top form and lacks potential to improve. Lil Rockerfeller well below form in the Wetherby race, but the improved pair that beat him could be under-estimated. Colin’s Sister (who’s trainer remains in excellent form) particularly impressed me with the way she moved in to the race… And The second there – Wholestone is 3 lbs better off and progressive. Considering the weights – if either one continues their upward curve they could easily be right up with Unowhatimeanharry. Added to that, there’s not a great deal of pace in the race. With Johnson on board on the outsider Beer Goggles he might try and get a soft lead. If not, Thistlecrack may need to make his own running and will he want a fast pace/hard race on reappearance with the King George coming up? Slowish pace could contribute to an upset.
4 points each way @ 74/1 (betbair) Beer Goggles (min 50/1)
Value Is EverythingGreat shout GT – led all the way. Got £38 on @ 81.58 Get in
Definitely owe you a beer or two 3:00 Newbury:
25 points each way @ 12/1 (PP) Colin’s Sister (min 17/2)
25 points each way @ 12/1 (PP) Wholestone (min 17/2)With Johnson on board on the outsider Beer Goggles he might try and get a soft lead. If not, Thistlecrack may need to make his own running and will he want a fast pace/hard race on reappearance with the King George coming up? Slowish pace could contribute to an upset.
4 points each way @ 74/1 (betbair) Beer Goggles (min 50/1)
I love front running outsiders.
Value Is EverythingGreat shout Mark and well done MTOTO!!! Drinks are on you!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Thanks lads, will do a p/l at the end of the weekend.
Ladbrokes Trophy (Hennessey):
47 points each way @ 7/1 (B365) Singlefarmpayment (min 6/1)EDIT: Wrong amount. Meant to say 31 points each way.
Value Is EverythingLadbrokes Trophy (Hennessey):
47 points each way @ 7/1 (B365) Singlefarmpayment (min 6/1)18 points @ 20/1 (B365) Cogry (min 18/1)
Value Is EverythingLadbrokes Trophy (Hennessey):
47 points each way @ 7/1 (B365) Singlefarmpayment (min 6/1)18 points @ 20/1 (B365) Cogry (min 18/1)
14 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Potters Legend (min 33/1)
Value Is EverythingLadbrokes Trophy (Hennessey):
47 points each way @ 7/1 (B365) Singlefarmpayment (min 6/1)18 points @ 20/1 (B365) Cogry (min 18/1)
14 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Potters Legend (min 33/1)
Sorry for my miscalcalculation, Singlefarmpayment should read “31 points each way”. I myself often do win only bets on betfair at a slightly bigger price and put a saver on the place market when that has increased liquidity (47 would be the number if I’d put up a win only bet).
For the thread I’ll keep it as 47 ew for now. Strongly suspect it’ll Singlefarmpayment will shorten up and I’ll put a lay bet up to get back to 31.
Value Is EverythingLadbrokes Trophy (Hennessey):
47 points each way @ 7/1 (B365) Singlefarmpayment (min 6/1)18 points @ 20/1 (B365) Cogry (min 18/1)
14 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Potters Legend (min 33/1)
savers:
4 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Present Man (min 22/1)
2 points @ 59/1 (betfair) Braceur Dor (min 50/1)Value Is EverythingWith ground at Newbury Good (at least to my eyes) and two of the three horses with scope for big improvement possibly wanting softer ground (Total Recall and American) Singlefarmpayment looks a good bet @ around 7/1. Has progressive form; hopefully he’s not a Cheltenham specialist. Tom George has also come good recently; trainer wasn’t going so well at the time of Singlefarmpayment’s reappearance and probably needed it. In the circumstances doing well to get second…
…That said, the one that beat him on reappearance Cogry (please watch your bets between “Cogry” and “Coneygree”) that’s “Cogry” also looks over-priced. Made all there over 3m1f on goodish going and stays really well – neck second in Scottish National under today’s jockey. Might be taken on for the lead by a few here… Jumping has improved the last few starts possibly due to better ground. At around 20/1 worth taking a chance his jumping proves up to the test.
One I like at a massive price is Potters Legend. Good 2 1/2 lengths 4th off this mark in the Kim Muir – so likes big fields. Amateur jockey making up ground late. Brian Hughes could do better. Favourite, only 4th on reappearance and that just two weeks ago. But stable have picked up since then. Potters Legend is only a 7 year old, may have better in him and is blinkered for the first time. 40/1+
Had a couple of savers on the Nicholls pair. Present Man won on soft going at Wincanton, but had previously seemed better on good (at least at around 3m+. Possible might be able to show a bit more. Would’ve been a main bet; However, trouble is this is the other way around. Raced mostly right handed and disappointed going left before. That said, at 25/1 worth a saver as may be he’s learnt. Braquer Dor has been progressive at lesser trips on a sound surface and it gives him at least a chance of staying… And @ 59/1 I’ve had a little bit on, although might look to lay it off in running as they come around the home turn.
Good ground horses seem to be being backed, can understand the moves for Vyta Du Rock and Missed Approach. Both have good form on a sound surface and from in form trainers. Trouble is if it’s good ground there’s less of a premium on stamina. Doubt they’d have the speed for this. Whisper likes this surface too and the trends guys will be all over him – second season chasers do well in this – but his level of form seems to have levelled out. Does Whisper have the scope for further improvement? May well be good enough to place, but Looks pretty short to actually win.
If either of the current favourites Total Recall and American do act on the ground they’ll take some beating, so don’t rule them out. But their chances are significantly reduced with that question mark hanging over them.
No knowing how Coneygree will run. Doesn’t need the mud like some people think, or at least he didn’t before injury. Pulled up apparently after an overreach on reappearance after another lengthy absence. Can go well fresh, but stable are yet to have a winner this season.
Irish challenger A Genie In ABottle is another possible, but will have the bold jumping Coneygree to contend with if his usual tactics are employed and not convinced about his effectiveness on this ground at the trip – speed-wise.
Value Is Everything2:25 Newbury:
42 points @ 9/1 (PP) Copper Kay (min 7/1)
30 points @ 9/1 (PP) Amour De Nuit (min 8/1)
saver:
24 points @ 3/1 (B365) High Bridge (min 3/1)Value Is Everything1:20 Newbury
60 points @ 6/1 (sportsbook) O Maonlai (min 5/1)saver:
17 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) On Tour (min 6/1)
Might be one more main and a saver bet tomorrow in this race.Value Is EverythingHow the devil are you Ginge? Nice to see you posting again and getting success. If you fancy a days racing sometime, i`m sure we can wangle a spare badge between us. Good luck today.
How the devil are you Ginge? Nice to see you posting again and getting success. If you fancy a days racing sometime, i`m sure we can wangle a spare badge between us. Good luck today.
Hi Softie, me ol’ mate.
Things are going well again and thoroughly enjoying studying once more. If you do have a spare badge one day then I’d love to meet up with the Newbury lads again. Thanks.Say hi from me.
Mark
Value Is Everything1:20 Newbury
60 points @ 6/1 (sportsbook) O Maonlai (min 5/1)saver:
17 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) On Tour (min 6/1)23 points @ 10/1 (sporting) Crosspark (min 9/1)
saver:
19 points @ 11/2 (FD) Gold Present (min 5/1)Value Is Everything
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