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Coral Hurdle:
36 points each way @ 100/30 (Sky) L’Ami Surge (min 100/30)41 points each way @ 7/2 (Sky) Lil Rockerfeller (min 100/30)
Defi Du Sueil was obviously a top class juvenile, but top class juveniles still need to improve in order to make the grade against established top class horses. Expect him to do so eventually, but this is a hard enough task first time in open company, over a different trip. Hobbs is not yet in his usual form this season too. Should be favourite, but not odds-on – more like a 6/4 shot.
Year ago you would not get me backing L’Ami Surge, looked a right dog. Has thrown in the towel but hasn’t done much wrong once stepped up to 2 1/2 miles plus. It’s possible British punters don’t realise just how good L’Ami Surge is now – after winning the French Champion Hurdle in June. First time hood there, which may be important. Each way bet takes some risk out of the bet and this is a great each way race. Poor value short priced favourite with two rank outsiders in a 5 runner race.
Also taken each way on Lil Rockerfeller. People have slagged him off for not winning very often, but has been highly tried and didn’t have the form to win many. Did on reappearance and disappointed, however usually comes on a good deal for first run. Placed in the Stayers Hurdle which is his best performance. I’ve rated him on his 3/4 length second to Yanworth in this race last year trying to give the winner 4 lbs, 10 lengths clear of the rest. Gets weight from the other two principles here.
Wakea seems established as below top class, below even Grade 2 company. Can’t see him figuring unless getting a very soft lead up front.
Dicosimo won a listed Irish Hurdle by 10 lengths once; but hasn’t raced over hurdles since April 2016. Past form isn’t good enough. Greatrex is good but who improves them from Willie Mullins?
Value Is EverythingChristy 1965 Chase Ascot:
70 points @ 100/30 (WH) Top Notch (min 3/1)
32 points @ 7/1 (PP) Top Gamble (min 13/2)This race for me is all about pace. There’s so many front/prominent runners. Top Gamble can front run, but often held up of late with success. Tactics which should suit here. Bit of a worry hasn’t always been ready first time out, but there’s been money today for him which is a good sign. Consistently placed in Grade 1 company and receives weight from all bar one here.
Top Notch can also race prominently, but also effective held up; as he showed in winning a Graduation chase here last December and the Scilly Isles at Sandown. Ran well enough, probably needed it when last of three to Unowhatimeanharry on reappearance.
Smad Place won the Old Roan by 3/4 length from Cloudy Dreams on reappearance and stable in good form. On form this old grey has just as good a chance as Top Notch. But imo his best form is when able to race prominently… Josses Hill‘s jumping confidence may be best fresh and best from the front, I may have backed him tomorrow had there not been more front runners. Flying Angel is more consistent when racing prominently than his overall form suggests. But will this race provide that? Double Shuffle seems to do nothing else but track pace, good jumper but can he jump as well from further back? Royal Regatta is another who seemingly needs to lead. Ascot specialist, however, lost his form last season and no better reappearance. Frodon has made the running more times than not of late, but showed in the Caspian Caviar doesn’t need to. Expect him to be held up this time. Eight lengths second to Might Bite last time isn’t bad but needs to improve to win this. Sizing Granite is often held up, but even his best recent effort was when racing nearer the front.
Not all horses in the above paragraph will be able to race at or near the front and there’s a good chance of a pace burn out and/or horses racing in positions they don’t like/don’t run well doing. So individually there’s a bigger chance they’ll run below their best. I’ve backed two I expect to be held up.
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)44 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 15/2)
16 points @ 6/1 (bet365) Outlander (min 5/1)
saver:
13 points @ 12/1 (B365) Tea For Two (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingL’Ami and Top Gamble drifting a bit this morning.
Not that surprised, Kasparov. If there were two horses I’ve backed that could drift it’s these two. Both horses reappearances. Some of Henderson’s horses have been needing their first run. But not too worried about L’Ami Serge yet. As I said in the preview, British punters may not realise what he’s actually achieved in France. It’s also easy to think he now needs 3m on soft after that, but has always travelled well at lesser distances on good… And he’s a bit temperamental, some probably wary of backing him – as I’d be if it wasn’t for the each way insurance. (If win only he’d only be a saver). Most punters reticent about ew betting when not able to get 100% of their stake back.
As said, Top Gamble’s record fresh of late isn’t great. If the drift is maintained it would be a worry.
Value Is EverythingFor reasons above:
Christy 1965 Chase Ascot:
70 points @ 100/30 (WH) Top Notch (min 3/1)
32 points @ 7/1 (PP) Top Gamble (min 13/2)LAY 17 points @ 8.6/1 Top Gamble (min 9/1)
Value Is EverythingWith the Betfair Chase lossses, Top Notch winning, Top Gamble losing, Lil Rockerfeller winning and L’Ami Serge second (BOG 7/2)…
Day’s Profit: 228.21Thread Totals:
Stakes: 1452
Return: 2009.81
Profit: +557.81 points
38.42%(Ante-Post bets still to run: 175)
Value Is Everything2:55 Exeter
67 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Crafty Roberto (min 11/4)
27 points @ 5/2 (L) Un Prophete (min 9/4)Value Is Everything2:55 Exeter
67 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Crafty Roberto (min 11/4)
27 points @ 5/2 (L) Un Prophete (min 9/4)Hobbs hasn’t hit form yet this season, so want to be against Keep Moving. Turban ran well at Wincanton, but that was over further and is inconsistent. Native Robin was last and pulled up most recent starts. Before that won a couple of races, but those were at 2m4f. Unless a market move indicates he’s fancied for a return to form I’ll be against him. Ubaltique is respected, now lower than his last winning mark. Although lost his form in second half of last season, trainer seems to be in better form this term and didn’t run badly reappearance. However, there are a couple that look better treated. Un Prophete is a 6 year old and looked in the process of putting up an improved effort under similar circumstances to this. But is a touch too short for a main bet considering he fell last time. Main bet Crafty Roberto has a bit of seconditus and sometimes doesn’t find much, but could get a soft lead if Turban can’t keep up. Gone close several times off similar marks of late.
Value Is Everything2:55 Exeter
67 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Crafty Roberto (min 11/4)
27 points @ 5/2 (L) Un Prophete (min 9/4)Another saver:
20 points @ 5/1 (Sky) Ubaltique (min 5/1)
8 points @ 5/2 (L) Un Prophete (min 9/4)Value Is Everything2:55 Exeter
67 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Crafty Roberto (min 11/4)
27 points @ 5/2 (L) Un Prophete (min 9/4)Another saver:
20 points @ 5/1 (Sky) Ubaltique (min 5/1)
8 points @ 5/2 (L) Un Prophete (min 9/4)To be honest think I got away with a poor bet here. Main bet Crafty Roberto looks exactly that – crafty. He didn’t want to know once unable to lead, should be a squiggle horse like Ubaltique. Un Prophete thankfully jumped well and got me and my follower out of trouble.
Day’s Profit +0.5
Thread Totals:
Stakes: 1574
Return: 2132.31
Profit: +558.31 points
35.47%(Ante-Post bets still to run: 200 including the bet below)
Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)Lighter campaign doesn’t just suggest the Grand National is a possibility, it suggests this will be a major target (running in it is now imo probable). Noticed for a while now Native River has been quite a bit bigger for the Gold Cup on the exchanges than he is with bookmakers… And strangely bigger than others with about the same chance of winning the March showpiece… And if Thistlecrack were to make it to Cheltenham as favourite then may be Native River could even go straight to Aintree. He’s absolutely made for the job! Goes on good just as well as soft, races prominently, won at the meeting (3m Novice), effective at 3m2f (on goodish ground you don’t want a one paced plodder) won Hennessey and placed in the Gold Cup and stays extreme distances (won Welsh National)… Jumps brilliantly and will probably be given a workable weight – handicapper Phil Smith’s last National and he’d love the top weight to win. Despite top weight is Still unexposed as a stayer. Reminds me a lot of Many Clouds.
Value Is Everything2:30 Kempton:
62 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Play The Ace (min 11/4)
45 points @ 9/2 (L) Favorito Bucks (min 4/1)
saver:
14 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Bishops Court (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:30 Kempton:
62 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Play The Ace (min 11/4)
45 points @ 9/2 (L) Favorito Bucks (min 4/1)
saver:
14 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Bishops Court (min 13/2)saver:
10 points @ 7/1 (PP) Dance Floor King (min 13/2)EDIT: Bishops Court should read min 15/2
Value Is Everything2:30 Kempton:
62 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Play The Ace (min 11/4)
45 points @ 9/2 (L) Favorito Bucks (min 4/1)
saver:
14 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Bishops Court (min 13/2)saver:
10 points @ 7/1 (PP) Dance Floor King (min 13/2)Well, hopefully some of you took a bookmaker price for Play The Ace, 6/1 SP!
I’ve got 3.3/1
At least it was a winner.
Day’s Profit: +135.6
Thread Totals:
Stakes: 1705
Return: 2398.91
Profit: +693.91 points
40.7%(Ante-Post bets still to run: 200)
Value Is Everything
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