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Thanks. I think the main hope for Cloudy Dreamers is that this is merely Fox Norton’s prep race for the Tingle Creek or FN doesn’t like the conditions. Special Tiara’s trainer seems quite bullish in the Racing Post but as you say the evidence from past seasons is against him.
2:25 Cheltenham:
46 points @ 7/2 (Boyle) Cloudy Dream (min 3/1)
54 points @ 0.99/1 (Betfair) Cloudy Dream (min 4/5) to placeReduction Factor made the place odds 0.9/1, so profit of +2.6 points.
Value Is EverythingThanks. I think the main hope for Cloudy Dreamers is that this is merely Fox Norton’s prep race for the Tingle Creek or FN doesn’t like the conditions. Special Tiara’s trainer seems quite bullish in the Racing Post but as you say the evidence from past seasons is against him.
Like so often, whatever a trainer says, a horse does exactly what can be expected. Special Tiara lost so much ground in the straight looked as though fitness gave way, Kasparov; to Cloudy Dreams benefit. Although I was a bit disappointed the Jefferson horse didn’t put up a better performance, not travelling as well as expected. Not that he would’ve beaten a top form Fox Norton… But at least the saver bet came through.
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)Three time Betfair winner Cue Card is not certain to stay this year’s increased trip on probable soft ground; Sizing John isn’t either… But nor is any other runner. Bristol De Mai’s amazingly short price makes me take a chance ante-post. I’ll probably have another bet on Sizing John once the final decs come through.
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)At time of the Wetherby fall Cue Card was going fairly well. But wherever he’d have finished that day, has come on for the run other seasons. If doing the same has every chance. Hope his new jockey takes the old boy to the front; am convinced he jumps consistently better there. Seems silly to say for a horse that’s won the race so many times, Cue Card is not sure to stay the Betfair trip this year (gone up to 3m1f125yrds from 3m). But older horses tend to stay further as they get older. Lot of people have written Cue Card off prematurely.
Bristol De Mai is the improving youner horse. Won the 3m Charlie Hall fair and square, but often fails to put two good races together and very best efforts so far have been when fresh (Peter Marsh and Charlie Hall). Although could also have something to do with a flat track. No doubt he likes very soft ground and that may be why he’s been backed. But not sure to stay this trip on very soft ground. Seemed out on his feet over the last over a similar trip in the Gold Cup. Mistake there and lost a lot of ground on run-in. Possibly suited last time out by Coneygree’s exit – Bristol De Mai jumps enthusiastically racing prominently. Form of the Charlie Hall is good, but not as good as several of these and imo represents poor value. Favourite well worth taking on.
Sizing John won a slightly substandard Gold Cup last year but stable voices claim he’ll be fit for this. On form of last season he’s the one to beat and has a gradually progressive profile. Should really be favourite here. Gold Cup was a similar trip and the furthest he’s raced, which suggests he’ll stay. Although this will be on a more stamina sapping surface. Once best known primarily for following Douman home over 2 miles. However, now proven on soft at 3 miles in Irish Gold Cup. But beating Empire Of Dirt 3/4 length with Don Poli another 3/4 length away in third doesn’t seem quite as good form, so it was pretty much as good as anthing he’d done up to that point. So although not certain to stay it is likely. Something not sure you can say about some others here…
Traffic Fluide seems effective at between 2m and 2m6f. Some good efforts on soft ground, but they were at 2m and doesn’t look to be crying out for these conditions.
Shantou Flyer goes really well on soft ground and ran in the Grand National (pulled up 4 out). 58 lengths behind Bristol De Mai last time out on reappearance for his new trainer. Yet to show his form at further than 2 3/4 miles and that form isn’t up to this.
Tea For Two beat a below par Cue Card in the Bowl at Aintree. That was 3m on goodish ground. Hate to say this as I used to talk to one of the owners fairly frequently at the races – but the race seemed to fall apart for him that day. Wasn’t far (3 1/2 lengths) behind Thistlecrack in last year’s King George. Seems wants at least 3 miles these days. Needed race over now inadequate 2m4f on reappearance. Unseated at the second fence in last season’s Gold Cup only try at around 3 1/4m.
Outlander lost his form in the second half of last season after beating Don Poli in the Lexus by further than Sizing John did in the Irish Gold Cup. So on form isn’t out of this if turning up. Forget the run when last seen on the mainland, never travelling with any fluencey in Gold Cup. Had an operation in the summer break and back to form in first time cheek pieces last time. Won 3m (soft) JN Wine, staying on well to beat the up and coming owner companion Road To Respect 1/2 length. Outlander has disappointed each time raced beyond 3m, but may be other reasons for that and races at 3m as if will stay futher. Might back him once confirmed to run… Or earlier…
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)44 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 15/2)
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)44 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 15/2)
My 100% book for very soft ground:
Cue Card 5/2, Sizing John 5/2, Bristol De Mai 100/30, Outlander 6/1, Tea For Two 15/1, Traffic Fluide 150/1, Shantou Flyer 500/1.Value Is EverythingArkle (Ante-post):
31 points @ 16/1 (B365) North Hill Harvey (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingI started a thread last year called “The Ante-Post Ginger”, with (in particular) bets for this season’s Cheltenham Festival. I’ll put up a couple here that still appeal at current prices:
Champion Hurdle:
67 points @ 5/1 (WH) Buveur D’Air (min 4/1)Stayers Hurdle:
25 points @ 25/1 (FD) Lil Rockerfeller (min 16/1)
41 points @ 13/2 (Sportsbook) Unowhatimeanharry (min 6/1)
saver:
11 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Nichols Canyon (min 6/1)Value Is EverythingThread Totals:
Stakes: 1048
Return: 1377.6
Profit: +329.6 points
31.45%(Ante-Post bets still to run: 311)
Value Is EverythingHe got up to win very well I thought
Sorry, I missed this Greenasgrass.
Yes, On The Blindside did it well – in the end – and looks a likable, genuine sort. Although this was over an intermediate trip he looks a thorough stayer and should improve at 3m+. However, tbh the form doesn’t seem up to some previous renewals. Needs to improve a lot to prove Grade 1 class – that appears unlikely at this stage.
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)44 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 15/2)
Kicking myself for backing saver bet Sizing John when there was a chance he’d be pulled out, should’ve waited! However, with main bets Outlander now best price 6/1 and Cue Card 2/1, still got the better of this market (at least so far).
Value Is EverythingBetfair Chase:
69 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Cue Card (min 3/1)
saver:
23 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Sizing John (min 11/4)44 points @ 10/1 (L) Outlander (min 15/2)
Revised my 100% book now that Sizing John is out and heavy ground.
Cue Card 7/4, Bristol De Mai 2/1, Outlander 4/1, Tea For Two 11/1, Traffic Fluide 66/1, Shantou Flyer 400/1.So my staking plan indicates Outlander should have 60 points staked, therefore a further:
16 points @ 6/1 (bet365) Outlander (min 5/1)
Value Is EverythingCoral Hurdle:
36 points each way @ 100/30 (Sky) L’Ami Surge (min 100/30)
Another main bet to come in this.Value Is EverythingChristy 1965 Chase Ascot:
70 points @ 100/30 (WH) Top Notch (min 3/1)
32 points @ 7/1 (PP) Top Gamble (min 13/2)Value Is EverythingCoral Hurdle:
36 points each way @ 100/30 (Sky) L’Ami Surge (min 100/30)41 points each way @ 7/2 (Sky) Lil Rockerfeller (min 100/30)
Value Is Everything
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