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34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
If you’re not on Total Recall yet – with the rain making it more of a test – I suggest only making him a saver until nearer off time (when we’ll know more).Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
20 points @ 50/1 (WH) Vintage Clouds (min 28/1)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)
28 points @ 27/1 (betfair) I Just Know (min 18/1)LAY 20 points @ 14.5/1 Total Recall (min 15/1)
Value Is Everything3:25 Aintree
38 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Politologue (min 13/2)
saver:
28 points @ 11/8 (B365) Min (min 11/8)Test of stamina will now probably be too much for Politologue:
LAY 25 points @ 11.5/1 Politologue (min 12/1)Value Is Everything2:50 Aintree
42 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Coo Star Sivola (min 13/2)
44 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) Mia’s Storm (min 6/1)
saver:
25 points @ 7/2 (PP)) Terrefort (min 100/30)Mia’s Storm out and stamina key.
44 points @ 6/1 (generally) Ms Pavois (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything3:25 Aintree
38 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Politologue (min 13/2)
saver:
28 points @ 11/8 (B365) Min (min 11/8)Test of stamina will now probably be too much for Politologue:
LAY 25 points @ 11.5/1 Politologue (min 12/1)Well that was a crazy race for me. (Excuse the aftertiming)…
Originally wanted to be with Politologue as I don’t think he likes the atmosphere at the Cheltenham Festival and should’ve won here last year after disappointing in the JLT. However, after the rain didn’t think he’d stay… But somehow I’d missed the headgear! When I saw that… and how he settled early as well as Min being quite free – had to back Politologue in running @ between 11/1 and 17/1… Trouble is I bottled it again and laid a little back @ 3/1.
Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
20 points @ 50/1 (WH) Vintage Clouds (min 28/1)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)
28 points @ 27/1 (betfair) I Just Know (min 18/1)
LAY 20 points @ 14.5/1 Total Recall (min 15/1)14 points @ 40/1 (B365) Houblon Des obeaux (min 33/1)
Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)
28 points @ 27/1 (betfair) I Just Know (min 18/1)
LAY 20 points @ 14.5/1 Total Recall (min 15/1)
14 points @ 40/1 (B365) Houblon Des obeaux (min 33/1)
Another:
7 points @ 29/1 (betfair) The Last Samuri (min 20/1)Value Is EverythingWeite ups on my main Grand National bets:
Houblon Des Obeaux: On the downgrade, but wouldn’t need to be at his best to win off this mark of 144. Back as a 7 year old in 2014 a 3 1/4 lengths second to Many Clouds in the Hennessey off topweight, a mark of 157, coming out the best horse at the weights by actually giving the winner 6 lbs. Also subsequently winner of a (poor quality) Denman Chase. Admittedly something of a Newbury specialist and has never run well at Aintree despite several tries, but has never had his ground here before. Off 153 Last season a 16 3/4 lengths 3rd to Native River, getting just 2 lbs from winner on reapperance in Welsh National… Proving he’s suited by a test of stamina on very soft ground; Beaten a long way here in 10th last year but ground not soft enough. So what’s he still capable of as an 11 year old? Won a 3m veterans race on reappearance off 141 this season. Form again took a downward step afterwards but coincided with the trainer’s awful run of form. Vennitia Williams has had 8 wins from 15 runners since April 9th. Would have a real chance here if able to run to a level only around 7 lbs better than reappearance. Has two ways of jumping, but there must be negatives – hope he can get in to a rhythm. Available @ 40/1, I rate him a fair 22/1 chance.
I know I Just Know has gone up a lot since winning the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick, so is perhaps technically poorly handicapped now. However, is so progressive of late so could yet still progress past his handicap mark. Bit concerned there’s so much pace in tomorrow’s race – IJK normally a front runner. But if they don’t go too fast has many other attributes for this. Stays extremely well, loves very soft/heavy ground, from a stable who know how to prepare a Grand National winner… And jumps for fun, can make lengths at his fences. I make him a fair 14/1 chance and is still available at almost double that.
Not convinced Anibale Fly‘s jumping is going to be up to scratch. If jumping well enough will be difficult to beat on going he loves. I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts around 5/1… and 13/1 is available! Well handicapped on Gold Cup form and still progressing. Closing on Native River up the Cheltenham straight, looking as though an extreme test will suit even more. Usually I prefer a prominent runner and Anibale Fly is a hold up horse, however this year there’s so many that need to lead (or at least dispute it) that they may set it up for a closer.
The Last Samuri had excuses last year, got upset in prelims and stable not in great form. Some say he’s handicapped out of things after placed three times over this course – but runs off the same mark as when second to Rule The World on similar ground to this two years ago. He’s 8 lbs better off with Blaklion for 9 lengths from this season’s Becher chase. ie At 1 lb per length should finish 1 length behind Blaklion… And on very soft ground over extreme tests each pound is worth more than a length… Plus (given this is going to be a more severe test than 2017) The Last Samuri will probably be better suited by conditions. Kim Bailey’s horse should imo be shorter than Twister’s. Third in the X-Country is nowhere near his best form, not jumping as well as usual but I’ve heard no horse has won over those unique fences on first try. So it’s barely a negative and this race always his aim. Like Politologue today, is tongue tied for the first time. Be a little worried if The Last Samuri gets too far back in the field as doesn’t like being behind too many horses. Very genuine when racing prominently, tracking pace and in a finish. Recent strike rate isn’t great but has run in competitive races and often placed. Currently 27/1, I rate him a 16/1 shot.
Value Is Everything4:20 Aintree
104 points @ 6/4 (B365) Sam Spinner (min 5/4)
21 points @ 16/1 (B365) Lil Rockerfeller (min 14/1)Value Is Everything2019 Stayers Hurdle:
47 points @ 16/1 (WH) Sam Spinner (min 9/1)If you’re not on yet suggest you taking this bet. 20/1 now available with Paddy.
Value Is Everything3:00 Aintree
27 points each way @ 7/1 (PP) Lady buttons (min 13/2)Value Is Everything2:25 Aintree
68 points @ 15/8 (betfair) On The Blind Side (min 7/4)
30 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Western Ryder (min 8/1)
saver:
8 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Momella (min 11/1)Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)
28 points @ 27/1 (betfair) I Just Know (min 18/1)
LAY 20 points @ 14.5/1 Total Recall (min 15/1)
14 points @ 40/1 (B365) Houblon Des obeaux (min 33/1)
7 points @ 29/1 (betfair) The Last Samuri (min 20/1)Place Only:
25 points @ 6/1 (betfair) I Just Know
25 points @ 5.2/1 (betfair) The Last Samuri
12 points @ 9.5/1 (betfair) Houblon Des Obeaux
13 points @ 4.9/1 (betfair) Anibale FlyValue Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)
28 points @ 27/1 (betfair) I Just Know (min 18/1)
LAY 20 points @ 14.5/1 Total Recall (min 15/1)
14 points @ 40/1 (B365) Houblon Des obeaux (min 33/1)
7 points @ 29/1 (betfair) The Last Samuri (min 20/1)Place Only:
25 points @ 6/1 (betfair) I Just Know
25 points @ 5.2/1 (betfair) The Last Samuri
12 points @ 9.5/1 (betfair) Houblon Des Obeaux
13 points @ 4.9/1 (betfair) Anibale FlyAnother selection and a couple of half savers in the win market:
10 points @ 80/1 (PP) Virgilio (min 66/1)
6 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Bais Des Iles (min 18/1)
5 points @ 24/1 (betfair) The Dutchman (min 22/1)Value Is Everything2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)
16 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Wild West Wind (min 33/1)
34 points @ 12/1 (C) Anibale Fly (min 9/1)
34 points @ 13.5/1 (Betfair) Total Recall (min 10/1)
8 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Anibale Fly (min 8/1)
28 points @ 27/1 (betfair) I Just Know (min 18/1)
LAY 20 points @ 14.5/1 Total Recall (min 15/1)
14 points @ 40/1 (B365) Houblon Des obeaux (min 33/1)
7 points @ 29/1 (betfair) The Last Samuri (min 20/1)Place Only:
25 points @ 6/1 (betfair) I Just Know
25 points @ 5.2/1 (betfair) The Last Samuri
12 points @ 9.5/1 (betfair) Houblon Des Obeaux
13 points @ 4.9/1 (betfair) Anibale FlyAnother selection and a couple of half savers in the win market:
10 points @ 80/1 (PP) Virgilio (min 66/1)
6 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Bais Des Iles (min 18/1)
5 points @ 24/1 (betfair) The Dutchman (min 22/1)
half saver:
5 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Gas Line Boy (min 28/1)Skelton negative on Virgilio’s chance on the going so lay him back.
LAY 9 points @ 89/1 (betfair) Virgilio (min 95/1)Value Is EverythingMy 100% book for the Grand National on very soft/heavy:
6/1 Anibale Fly, 9/1 Total Recall, 14/1 I Just Know, 16/1 The Last Samuri, 16/1 Baie Des Iles, 18/1 Tiger Roll, 18/1 Seeyouatmidnight, 20/1 Blaklion, 22/1 Houblon Des Obeaux, 22/1 The Dutchman, 22/1 Gas Line Boy, 25/1 Ucello Conti, 33/1 Milansbar, 33/1 Carlingford Lough, 50/1 Raz De Maree, 50/1 Shantou Flyer, 66/1 Chase The Spud, 66/1 Warriors Tale, 80/1 Vieux Lion Rouge, 100/1 Captain Redbeard, 100/1 Saint Are, 100/1 Virgilio, 132/1 Perfect Candidate, 132/1 Pleasant Company, 150/1 Thunder And Roses, 200/1 Buywise, 200/1 Final Nudge, 200/1 Road To Riches, 250/1 Delusionsofgrandieur, 300/1 Alpha Des Obeaux, 400/1 Bless The Wings, 400/1 Lord Windermere, 400/1 Valseur Lido, 500/1 Children’s List, 800/1 Maggio, 800/1 Tenor Nivernais, 1000/1 Pendra, 1000/1 Double Ross,Value Is Everything
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