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Arrrrrrrrrrrgh! So close and yet so far.
Diminishing head away from an individual 20/1 winner. If only Leighton had tackled Bryoney earlier. Winner wasn’t sure to stay on that ground, Final Nudge stays a lot further. Had he made it an even greater test of stamina by tackling the winner earlier imo would’ve made the difference between winning and losing.
That said, Bryoney Frost deserved to win. Having jumped brilliantly and would’ve been easy to have gone on too soon. Allowed others to go on when they wanted whilst keeping with a view of the front – as suits the horse. Then holding her own in the finish against a strong established jockey. Looks already better than her father.
Lost -114 points on the race/day instead of +300 up.
Broke even in the 3:00 with saver London Prize winning. On a great day for Ian Williams, London Prize won well, O’Brien making it in to a stamina test. Could do even better over further. Lough Derg Spirit ran well, improved a bit. Flying Tiger ran well too, travelled well for a long way. Charbel strong in the market early, drifted badly late on and knew my fate with the main bet. May be either needs to lead or something wrong on course – did he sweat up? Doubt it was as simple as going.
Value Is EverythingBetvictor Gold Cup:
Jamie Moore is good, but Noel Fehily is better. Kerry Lee is good but am a great fan of Harry Fry. He’s also in great form at the moment. Kylemore Lough already looks well handicapped on his 2 3/4 lengths Cheltenham 5th to Frodon in the Caspian caviar, off a 2 lbs higher mark than here. Usually a good jumper and without uncharesteristic late errors that day imo would’ve won. Can improve on even that form under the new team. I know he’s favourite, but can see Kylemore Lough starting a lot shorter than 7/1.
56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything3:35 Cheltenham:
69 points @ 11/4 (FD) Vision Des Flos (min 5/2)
62 points @ 100/30 (Boyle) On The Blind Side (min 3/1)Value Is Everything3:35 Cheltenham:
69 points @ 11/4 (FD) Vision Des Flos (min 5/2)
62 points @ 100/30 (Boyle) On The Blind Side (min 3/1)Basically taken evens one of the two will win. They seem to be the two unexposed “could be anything”s in the field.
Value Is Everything1:50 Cheltenham:
42 points @ 8/1 (Boyle) Shanahans Turn (min 13/2)
57 points @ 3/1 (L) Exitas (min 11/4)
saver:
29 points @ 7/2 (B365) Kapstadt (min 7/2)(You’ll probably get bigger than 8/1, 3/1 and 7/2 in the morning).
Value Is EverythingWith BOG on On The Blind Side (9/2 winner) makes a profit of +82 points on the day
Value Is EverythingBetvictor Gold Cup:
Jamie Moore is good, but Noel Fehily is better. Kerry Lee is good but am a great fan of Harry Fry. He’s also in great form at the moment. Kylemore Lough already looks well handicapped on his 2 3/4 lengths Cheltenham 5th to Frodon in the Caspian caviar, off a 2 lbs higher mark than here. Usually a good jumper and without uncharesteristic late errors that day imo would’ve won. Can improve on even that form under the new team. I know he’s favourite, but can see Kylemore Lough starting a lot shorter than 7/1.
56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)
26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)
Value Is Everything56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)
26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)
15 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Aqua Dude (min 18/1)Value Is Everything56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)
26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)
15 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Aqua Dude (min 18/1)couple of savers:
11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Romain De Senam (min 11/1)
11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Ballyalton (min 11/1)
one more “main” bet to come in this raceValue Is Everything56 points @ 7/1 (B365) Kylemore Lough (min 11/2)
26 points @ 9/1 (Sky) Le Prezien (min 17/2)
15 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Aqua Dude (min 18/1)couple of savers:
11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Romain De Senam (min 11/1)
11 points @ 11/1 (PP) Ballyalton (min 11/1)13 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Guitar Pete (min 18/1)
Value Is Everything1:50 Cheltenham:
25 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Shotgun Paddy (min 10/1)
28 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Perfect Candidate (min 17/2)Value Is Everything1:50 Cheltenham:
25 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Shotgun Paddy (min 10/1)
28 points each way @ 12/1 (B365) Perfect Candidate (min 17/2)Three Faces West is a horse I really like, genuine front runner. But after a year off will keep an eye on the market. At the moment is on the drift which might imply is going to need it. Profile suggests he goes better after a run anyway.
Although Second favourite (Gold Cup placed) Minella Rocco is a bit of a Cheltenham specialist also seems to keep his best for the Spring in the last couple of seasons. Ditto the last comment for dual Scottish National winner Vicente.
Sizing Codelco was pulled up on reappearance so needs to improve a lot on that run. Stable is in better form but is 8 lbs higher than winning final start of last season. Benbens should’ve had 9-9, so effectively running off 140. Only placed in Scottish National and Bet365 Gold Cup off 137 and 135 and needs to take a step forward from reappearance when 30 lengths behind winner.
Doing Fine did fine last time out when 6 lengths 3rd and returns to the same course and distance as last victory in April. Stable is struggling a bit for form at the moment.
Premier Bond is interesting for Nicky Henderson. Disappointed in Scottish National, but earlier stayed on up the hill to be 1 1/2 lengths 3rd in the Kim Muir. Only a 3 lb higher mark here. 6/1 looks a fair enough price.
Shotgun Paddy may look out of it; another one off an effective mark of 140. But has won off bigger in the past, sems to run/jump better fresh nowadays. Three Faces West is the probable front runner, but Shotgun Paddy should be able to get a nice view of his fences and Emma Lavelle is in good form. Times yesterday suggested the ground nearer soft than good which should suit this stayer. 14/1 looks enormous.
So too does 12/1 Perfect Candidate. Only 10th on reappearance but that’s just him. Importantly usually comes on a good deal for a run. Jumps well and – unlike some here – loves his racing. May be a 10 year old but was better than ever last season. Won a veteran’s chase by 5 lengths and now on a mark just 2 lbs higher. Fergal O’Brien has been in good form in recent weeks.Perfect Candidate and Shotgun Paddy look the perfect each way bets in a race that might pay to take on the favourites.
Value Is EverythingWith a 15p deduction for the 12/1 ew Perfect Candidate winning.
Profit of +175 points on the day.Value Is Everything2:25 Cheltenham:
46 points @ 7/2 (Boyle) Cloudy Dream (min 3/1)
54 points @ 0.99/1 (Betfair) Cloudy Dream (min 4/5) to placeValue Is EverythingStill loving this thread. As ever, I find the reasoning more interesting than the pricing (which I often find difficult to achieve). Fox Norton looks not to be great value but Special Tiara looks better at 15/2 to me than Cloudy Dream, who appears to have been entered as an afterthought.
Anyway, one thing I have been puzzling over lately is how much to allow for differential ratings. On the flat a 5 pound difference in say Timeform rating is significant but over jumps not so much. On the official ratings Fox Norton is 169, Special Tiara 165 and Cloudy Dream 159 with a three pound allowance versus the other two, so effectively 162. And the other horses aren’t a long way away. Given the random factors in jumps racing it is hard to see Fox Norton as odds on.
I suppose we might say Fox Norton and Cloudy Dream are progressive, so give them 5 pounds each. But that still leaves Special Tiara best value at the odds.
Still loving this thread. As ever, I find the reasoning more interesting than the pricing (which I often find difficult to achieve). Fox Norton looks not to be great value but Special Tiara looks better at 15/2 to me than Cloudy Dream, who appears to have been entered as an afterthought.
Anyway, one thing I have been puzzling over lately is how much to allow for differential ratings. On the flat a 5 pound difference in say Timeform rating is significant but over jumps not so much. On the official ratings Fox Norton is 169, Special Tiara 165 and Cloudy Dream 159 with a three pound allowance versus the other two, so effectively 162. And the other horses aren’t a long way away. Given the random factors in jumps racing it is hard to see Fox Norton as odds on.
I suppose we might say Fox Norton and Cloudy Dream are progressive, so give them 5 pounds each. But that still leaves Special Tiara best value at the odds.
Sometimes ratings are important, Kasparov. Sometimes they’re less important. Thing with Special Tiara is he’s disappointed several times on reappearance (the last four years). Not just below his best, often a long way below it.
Is that because – like a lot of older horses – these days they can’t get him fit enough?
May be he just doesn’t like the autumn?
Or may be it’s just a coincidence?
Or may be the trainer has him fit and well this time?
But the fact is he usually struggles first time out these days.Then there’s the going and stamina.
imo His best runs have come on good or good-soft and although has some reasonable efforts on today’s surface seems to me more inconsistent on it. Did beat Balder Success on “soft” in the 2014 Desert Orchid, but today is probably softer than it was that day and – with this being his reappearance – the winner will need to be fit… And it’s going to take some getting. Very soft conditions on a stiff track, probably best for horses fully effective from 2m to 2 1/2m rather than a specialist 2 miler.There is a possibility Special Tiara will run to his best, but the evidence I’ve seen has to be taken in to account in the price I’m willing to take. So although Special Tiara on ratings might look the “value”; there’s a lot more important form aspects against him. If he hadn’t already travelled over here might even be a non-runner.
I agree, Fox Norton deserves to be fairly short, but not odds-on.
Cloudy Dream might not quite have the form rating of Special Tiara, but is fit and well… in fact better than ever at Aintree in the Old Roan and improving. Has been impressive on very soft ground, usually jumps well and proven over 2m to 2 1/2.
Sir Valentino and Vaniteaux disappointed on their reappearances; can’t quite see the former being able to give weight. Latter isn’t always the best of jumpers. Did think seriously about Simply Ned. I don’t think he’ll be last, but is difficult to win with.
Value Is Everything
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