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Posts
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Bets since last update:
2:15 Musselburgh:
28 points @ 12/1 (B365) Man Look
36 points @ 6/1 (B365) Romulus Du Donjon
642:40 Ffos Las
51 points @ 5/1 (B365) Solstace Star
8 points @ 13/2 (Sky) Potters Story 1st Return 60
59Stakes 123, Return 60, Deficit -63
1:40 Fakenham:
85 points @ 13/8 (Sky) Creep Desbois 1st Return 223.13
33 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Enjoy Responsibility
118Stakes 118, Return 223.13, Profit +105.13
1:30 Newbury
52 points @ 9/2 (B365) Abbreviate
28 points @ 17/2 (B365) Holbrook Park
20 points a place @ 5/2 (betfair) Abbreviate
100Stakes 100, Deficit -100
1:20 Kempton:
33 points @ 10/1 (C) Private Malone
60 points @ 5.6/1 (betfair) Mister Whitaker
931:55 Kempton:
44 points @ 7/1 (FD) Fountains Windfall
69 points @ 5/2 (B365) Mia’s Storm
28 points @ 4/1 (C) Ballyoptic
141King George:
20 points each way @ 9/1 (Sky, NRNB) Whisper
25 points @ 7.6/1 (betfair) Fox Norton
65Stakes 299, Deficit -299
1:20 Kempton:
80 points @ 7/4 (B365) Shantou Flyer
23 points @ 7/2 (B365) Cyrname 1st Return 87.4 (incl 40p R4)
1032:30 Kempton:
30 points @ 9/1 (B365) Forest Bihan
53 points @ 4/7 (SJ) Politologue 1st Return 83.29
83Stakes 186, Return 170.69, Deficit -15.31
1:20 Leopardstown:
64 points @ 2.6/1 (betfair) Nichols Canyon
66 points @ 0.98/1 (betfair) Apples Jade 1st Return 130.68
1303:00 Leopardstown:
83 points @ 11/8 (Sky) Sizing John
34 points @ 13.5/1 (betfair) Road To Respect 1st Return 493.00
13 points @ 9/1 (WH) Djakadam
130Stakes 260, Return 623.68, Profit +363.68
2:10 Haydock:
34 points each way @ 5/1 (B365) Emperors Choice 1st Return 280.5
682:25 Newbury:
60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Knockenrawley
30 points @ 15/2 (B365) Potters Legend
14 points @ 13/2 (B365) Shotgun Paddy
1042:45 Haydock
65 points @ 3/1 (B365) Federici
23 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Swing Hard
20 points @ 9/2 (betfair) Church Hall
1083:00 Newbury:
49 points @ 9/2 (Sky) Way Back Then
51 points @ 3.3/1 (betfair) Dame Rose
LAY 25 points @ 3.6/1 Dame Rose
LAY 24 points @ 5/1 Way Back Then
35 points @ 100/30 (betfair) Kilbricken Storm
86Stakes 366, Return 280.5, Deficit -85.5 points
1:25 Cheltenham
30 points @ 10/1 Amis Desbois
55 points @ 2/1 Willoughby Court
852:00 Cheltenham:
60 points @ 4/1 (B365) Burton’s Well
44 points @ 6/1 (B365) Ballyhill 1st BOG 9/1 Return 440
21 points @ 5/1 (PP) Top Gamble
1253:10 Cheltenham:
45 points @ 7/1 (B365) Agrapart
72 points @ 9/4 (betfair) Colins Sister
117Stakes 327, Return 440, Profit +113 points
2:40 Ayr:
53 points @ 3/1 (PP) Only Orsenfoolsies
33 points @ 7/1 (betfair) Rymers Stone
25 points @ 7/2 (betfair) One For Harry
111Stakes 111, Deficit -111
2:50 Ludlow:
61 points @ 7/2 (B365) Sainte Ladylime
38 points @ 1.68/1 (betfair) Ellens Way 1st Return 101.84
993:00 Musselburgh
73 points @ 3/1 (PP) Mixboy 1st Return 270.1 (incl. 10p R4)
73Stakes 172, Returns 371.94, Profit +199.94
Since Last Update:
21 bets, 10 winners incl. 5 savers
Stakes: 2062
Returns: 2169.94
Profit: +107.94Thread Totals:
Stakes: 7423
Return: 8998.59
Profit: +1575.59 points
Profit on stakes: 21.23%
Strike Rate: 59.15% (incl. 18 savers) 42 wins from 71 races
Strike Rate: 33.8% (not incl. savers) 24 wins from 71 racesAnte-Post Bets:
6 Ante-Post races still to run/yet to be included: 439 points
Welsh Grand National:
48 points @ 10/1 (B365) Wild West Wind (min 15/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (sportsbook) Rock The Kasbah (min 9/1)
23 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Bishops Road (min 14/1)
Arkle:
31 points @ 16/1 (B365) North Hill Harvey (min 12/1)
35 points @ 10/1 (C) Sceau Royal (min 7/1)
Champion Hurdle:
67 points @ 5/1 (WH) Buveur D’Air (min 4/1)
Stayers Hurdle:
25 points @ 25/1 (FD) Lil Rockerfeller (min 16/1)
41 points @ 13/2 (Sportsbook) Unowhatimeanharry (min 6/1)
11 points @ 6.6/1 (betfair) Nichols Canyon (min 6/1)
60 points @ 6/1 (B365) Sam Spinner (min 5/1)
Cheltenham Gold Cup:
26 points @ 20/1 (888, 19/1 betfair) Whisper (min 15/1)
2018 Grand National:
25 points @ 25/1 (WH) Native River (min 20/1)
17 points @ 40/1 (PP) The Last Samuri (min 28/1)Value Is EverythingWelsh Grand National:
48 points @ 10/1 (B365) Wild West Wind (min 15/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (sportsbook) Rock The Kasbah (min 9/1)23 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Bishops Road (min 14/1)
Value Is Everythinglol at the follower comment
Well done with Mixboy. He was too short for me today, even at the 11-4, but he’s a definite notebook horse of mine this year. Been keeping tabs on him ever since The Close Bros Novices, where he seemed to empty a couple of furlongs out, after going very very well. Was hoping, at the time, to see him get an entry for The BetVictor, but in hindsight, the minimum trip may just be what he wants.
Don’t laugh, but I really like him for The Grand Annual, and funnily enough, he beat a former winner of that race today (albeit on the downgrade). He’s trained a couple of miles up the road from me, and if he gets an entry, I might have a wee go on him. Enough to buy him a box of carrots if he wins.
Mixboy was “too short” for me too over the last, Vtc.
Although beat a Grand Annual winner yesterday you’re right Solar Impulse was nowhere near the form that saw him win the Cheltenham race for Nicholls off a 20 lbs higher mark – very much on the downgrade. Solar Impulse has never been the most hearty either whilst Mixboy has the sort of attitude I really like – stood him in good stead here. However, didn’t need to improve much – if atall. Mixboy might do better than last year’s PU and I agree 2m around a stiff track would be a better option, but whether he has the improvement needed for a race like the Grand Annual – doubtful I would’ve thought. Way he races also suggesting being prominent is important, so a smaller field possibly suits ideally. Might be worth an entry, but imo may show to best advantage at Ayr’s Spring meeting.Value Is Everything2:15 Bangor:
73 points @ 11/8 (PP) Uppertown Prince (min 5/4)Wanted to be against the Henderson Kings Theatre horse on that going and McCain in great form. Proven right as Uppertown Prince ran as well as expected, coming clear of Follow The Bear. But Samuel Jackson showed improved form.
Even McCain said Uppertown Prince was his best chance of a win… Has had three winners so far at Bangor, one that missed out the only one I backed.
Value Is EverythingI’ve noticed some big price swings in your horses. I didn’t back Uppertown Prince as he was odds on this morning but his SP was back to 5/4. Conversely Ellens Way went out to over 2/1, but won off an SP of evens.
I think in thin morning markets on minor races these things happen, but maybe best to take advantage rather than assume the market knows something we don’t.
I’ve noticed some big price swings in your horses. I didn’t back Uppertown Prince as he was odds on this morning but his SP was back to 5/4. Conversely Ellens Way went out to over 2/1, but won off an SP of evens.
I think in thin morning markets on minor races these things happen, but maybe best to take advantage rather than assume the market knows something we don’t.
Good point Kasparov, week day markets are bound to be “thin”/more volotile because the amount needed to greatly change a price is nowhere near that of a Saturday. ie Because the overall amount bet on a race is a lot less, the amount needed to change a price is in turn significantly less than it would be on a Saturday. Therefore, as you rightly imply will always be more market movement week days and I’ll have to allow for that more volotile market in my more general thoughts on market moves.
Generally, all depends on probability of running to form. If there’s good reason to believe the horse is in A1 condition. eg If both trainer and horse are in good form etc – I’ll be more likely to overlook a market drift.
If good reason to believe the horse may not run to form. eg If trainer or horse is in poor form or hasn’t run yet this season, or been injured, may not be fit and well for whatever reason – I’ll be less likely to overlook a market drift.
Value Is Everything3:00 Sandown:
67 points @ 5/1 (B365) Gas Line Boy (min 4/1)30 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Benbens (min 8/1)
Value Is Everything3:00 Sandown:
67 points @ 5/1 (B365) Gas Line Boy (min 4/1)30 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Benbens (min 8/1)
saver:
7 points @ 18/1 (L) Vino Griego (min 16/1)Value Is Everything3:00 Sandown:
67 points @ 5/1 (B365) Gas Line Boy (min 4/1)
30 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Benbens (min 8/1)
saver:
7 points @ 18/1 (L) Vino Griego (min 16/1)15 points @ 20/1 (B365) O’Faolains Boy (min 16/1)
Probably a couple more savers to come.Value Is Everything3:00 Sandown:
67 points @ 5/1 (B365) Gas Line Boy (min 4/1)
30 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Benbens (min 8/1)
15 points @ 20/1 (B365) O’Faolains Boy (min 16/1)
saver:
7 points @ 18/1 (L) Vino Griego (min 16/1)savers:
18 points @ 8/1 (L) Perfect Candidate (min 8/1)
13 points @ 11/1 (B365) Houblon Des Obeaux (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingWelsh Grand National:
48 points @ 10/1 (B365) Wild West Wind (min 15/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (sportsbook) Rock The Kasbah (min 9/1)23 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Bishops Road (min 14/1)
saver:
15 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Mysteree (min 17/2)Value Is EverythingWelsh Grand National:
48 points @ 10/1 (B365) Wild West Wind (min 15/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (sportsbook) Rock The Kasbah (min 9/1)23 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Bishops Road (min 14/1)
saver:
15 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Mysteree (min 17/2)17 points @ 28/1 (betfair) OFaolains Boy (min 22/1)
Value Is EverythingWelsh Grand National:
48 points @ 10/1 (B365) Wild West Wind (min 15/2)
30 points @ 11/1 (sportsbook) Rock The Kasbah (min 9/1)
23 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Bishops Road (min 14/1)
15 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Mysteree (min 17/2)
17 points @ 28/1 (betfair) OFaolains Boy (min 22/1)One more to come in this race probably tomorrow morning.
Value Is Everything
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