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Had Baily Green, and Rock on Ruby for very decent amounts today, both second
You can have my gun, I fired a couple of shots away………I missed.
- Total Posts 764
Oh dear!
Anyone got a gun?Yeah tell me about it Ginge! my two biggest bets of the day (MTOY and ROR) both came second, typical ey.
Onwards and upwards!
We all have days like that. Still, could be worse. We shall see what tomorrow brings. One good win and could be level.
Value Is EverythingNational Hunt Chase
23 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Houblon Des Obeaux* (min 14/1)saver first:
15 points @ 5/1 (VC) Buddy Bolero (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingNational Hunt Chase
23 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Houblon Des Obeaux* (min 14/1)saver first:
15 points @ 5/1 (VC) Buddy Bolero (min 9/2)18 points @ 9/1 (FD) Tofino Bay* (min 8/1)
One more main bet to come in this race.
Value Is EverythingWe all have days like that. Still, could be worse. We shall see what tomorrow brings. One good win and could be level.
I had Champagne Fever, which got me out of trouble with River Maigue.
Got excited about Loch Ba but then I saw he had no course form … surprised you got caught on that.Well i feel somewhat vindicated in doubting My Tent, but what do i know – i`ve been laying Hurricane Fly and at bigger odds than sp too……hells bells!!
RSA Chase
26 points @ 16/1 (WH) Hadrians Approach* (min 12/1)34 points @ 5/1 (WH) Boston Bob* (min 4/1)
Value Is EverythingNational Hunt Chase
23 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Houblon Des Obeaux* (min 14/1)saver first:
15 points @ 5/1 (VC) Buddy Bolero (min 9/2)18 points @ 9/1 (FD) Tofino Bay* (min 8/1)
23 points @ 8.2/1 (betfair) Godsmejudge* (min 6/1)(£263 available)
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
RSA Chase
26 points @ 16/1 (WH) Hadrians Approach* (min 12/1)34 points @ 5/1 (WH) Boston Bob* (min 4/1)
I was going to back Hadrians Approach as a cover for my Boston Bob bets but after watching the Betfair preveiew Nichols seemed confident in Unioniste, saying that they didn’t expect him to run to his full potential (and that he didn’t) when just beating HA as it was his first run over 3 miles and that he’d improved a hell of a lot at home after the run. This was enough to sway me to Unioniste – what are your thoughts on this race Ginge?
Just seen and a little concerning that BB is back to 5/1 on Betfair.
RSA Chase
26 points @ 16/1 (WH) Hadrians Approach* (min 12/1)34 points @ 5/1 (WH) Boston Bob* (min 4/1)
15 points @ 4/1 (SJ) Unioniste (min 4/1)
Value Is EverythingRSA Chase
26 points @ 16/1 (WH) Hadrians Approach* (min 12/1)34 points @ 5/1 (WH) Boston Bob* (min 4/1)
I was going to back Hadrians Approach as a cover for my Boston Bob bets but after watching the Betfair preveiew Nichols seemed confident in Unioniste, saying that they didn’t expect him to run to his full potential (and that he didn’t) when just beating HA as it was his first run over 3 miles and that he’d improved a hell of a lot at home after the run. This was enough to sway me to Unioniste – what are your thoughts on this race Ginge?
Just seen and a little concerning that BB is back to 5/1 on Betfair.
Am always a bit skeptical Ben, when it comes to trainers telling us the horse wasn’t 100% fit for his last start. From what I remember of the Newbury race, Nicholls said before the race he could not wait to see the horse at 3 miles and had improved since Cheltenham. A couple of weeks prior to Newbury they had not considered Unioniste to be their RSA horse, so he must have been showing them quite a bit at home. However, the thing that Unioniste has massively in his favour today is jumping; considerably better than his main two rivals.
Although I’ve backed Boston Bob @ 5/1, it would not surprise me if he does drift, Walsh chose Unioniste over Boston Bob and punters will probably take his tip. However, Unioniste has plenty of pace to win a top 2m4f handicap earlier in the year. So will probably go a lot quicker at Ditcheat than Boston Bob does in Ireland. There’s also a question Ruby keeping stables happy. Nicholls hasn’t got that many favourites this year, so when there’s not much between Mullins and Nicholls – he’ll probably pick Nicholls.
The thing that atracts me to Boston Bob is not the quality of his chase runs to date. On last time out "form" you would make some of the beaten horses "value" today. But for Boston Bob that run was over an inadequate trip. He’s a stayer, being considered for the 4 miler. Today’s 3 miles should bring about considerable improvement. Another thing that may have swayed Ruby to Unioniste is the "official" going report of "soft" on Monday. Remember watching last year’s Spa Hurdle where Boston Bob was nearest at the finish. Thinking his action should be favoured by good ground (by the way, the complete opposite of Back In Focus). Judging by times yesterday the surface is not as soft as the official going. It is posssible Boston Bob will either struggle through jumping frailties or being outpaced today. But in my opinion he is by far the classiest horse in the RSA.
However, when looking at the Newbury form, you’ve got to say Hadrians Approach is the very best value in the race. Without the mistake two out he’d have beaten Unioniste. Henderson’s horse has just as much scope for improvement as Unioniste. I’ve noticed in the past, Henderson’s hype/media gaggle is all about speed. Often his "staying novices" are under-estimated because they don’t go as "well" at home. Jumping ability means Unioniste does (imo) have a better chance than Hadrian’s Approach; but not as much as betting suggests, which makes it worth chancing his jumping.
It doesn’t look a great RSA, the 2 1/2 miler has once again diluted the race. But very few of the other runners seem to have scope for improvement. Golanes a possible, but he needed every yard of a poor Grade 2 on heavy ground last time. Am fairly sure had the official going been good-soft on monday he’d have gone for the 4 mile race; with Dynaste going for this. Golanes will probably get badly outpaced at some stage.
Houlon Des Obeaux was my ante-post bet for the 4 miler, has some good form not far behind the best, consistent, Cheltenham form, with a good attitude… he’d be my fourth choice (if I had one). But his form doesn’t seem to be improving and one paced.
Therefore Ben, if I was betting now at current prices (without the ante-post bet) it would still be Hadrian’s Approach main bet, with savers on Boston Bob and Unioniste.
Value Is EverythingWe all have days like that. Still, could be worse. We shall see what tomorrow brings. One good win and could be level.
I had Champagne Fever, which got me out of trouble with River Maigue.
Got excited about Loch Ba but then I saw he had no course form … surprised you got caught on that.Hope you celebrated with Champagne Prof.
Sometimes price means it is worth taking a chance on no Cheltenham form Prof. Backed Loch Ba @ 12/1 and came down to around 8/1 I think. Usually ridden much closer to the pace, hated it out the back, didn’t jump. These things happen.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Thanks for the response Ginge, I can definitely see you being right about the Walsh riding choice, on the morning line today he simply said he had to choose one of the horses as he hadn’t figured a way to ride 2 horses in a race yet
, he didn’t even mention the fact that he thought Unioniste is a better horse, more like it was a ‘pick em’ and like you said with him wanting to keep Nichols happy if he has a 50/50 choice he’s more likely to choose the Nichols horse.Hadrians really should have won that race against Unioniste and obviously his jumping at the end let him down but even then he still rallied strongly at the end and just failed. His stable boy said they’d been working on his jumping a lot at home so it should be much better today.
I’ve got bets on the main 3 that you have too now, think I’ll just put a bit extra on Hadrians Approach and Boston Bob as you well said Hadrians is the best value in the race and Boston Bob is going that way too.
On another note, the more I look at tomorrows RSA I can’t get away from First Lieutenant, I have him at 11/2 but even at 11/4 which he is now he still looks a good bet, imo Cue Card is overrated and I don’t think there’s anything else in the race that at the moment is as good as FL.
Well i feel somewhat vindicated in doubting My Tent, but what do i know – i`ve been laying Hurricane Fly and at bigger odds than sp too……hells bells!!
It was an exceptional Supreme Novices Softie. MTOY would’ve won almost any other renewal. Will be a big danger to Hurricane Fly next year.
Ear plugs worked a treat in keeping Hurricane cool yesterday. Apparently looked far better in his coat than 2012.
Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase
19 points @ 33/1 (SJ) China Rock* (min 25/1)
21 points @ 10/1 (VC) Sizing Europe* (min 17/2)On a retrieval mission in the Ryanair.
16 points each way @ 14/1 (b365) For Non Stop* (min 11/1)
Value Is EverythingOn another note, the more I look at tomorrows RSA I can’t get away from First Lieutenant, I have him at 11/2 but even at 11/4 which he is now he still looks a good bet, imo Cue Card is overrated and I don’t think there’s anything else in the race that at the moment is as good as FL.
After backing Sizing Europe and China Rock for the Ryanair I am starting from well behind the starting line Ben.
I backed Cue Card last time out when sure to get an easy lead. But there are so many front runners in this and in my opinion jumps better and enjoys himself with an easy lead. With Champion Court a very similar type (possibly need to lead to show their best) they might take each other on. Likely to be a stiff test with Alberta’s Run also putting up his best performances ridden prominently. Ghizao can go from the front too, but expect a hold up ride to get the trip. Cue Card won’t be able to dictate a slow pace and is not sure to get home. I agree Ben, I want to oppose him at the price.
I backed First Lieutenent for the Gold Cup and it would not surprise me if he won tomorrow Ben; because it is not a good renewal. A good pace will enable stamina to come to the fore. Expected to be outpaced at some stage, before staying on. Could be genuinely "good" ground if we don’t get any more rain. Although "acts" on the ground, will be a "stayer" at the trip, hopefully it won’t be too quick. But he’s also usually a prominent runner. With so much pace it could be an overly strong pace and so favour hold up horses.
Not exactly a hold up horse, but I backed Riverside Theatre last year, didn’t go well throughout the race but somehow Barry got home in front. Bad runs at Aintree and Kempton blamed on ulcers which they think have been sorted out. But he’s never gone with ease at Cheltenham despite that win. If I had a saver it’d be him, but can’t be main bet material.
Menorah will need to put in a best ever round of jumping. Alberta’s Run is now 12 and this his reappearance.
Ghizao shouldn’t really be good enough, though not knocked about last time.That leaves For Non Stop. Didn’t show much last time in the Peterborough. But that was a third run in (for him) fairly quick succession. Record for Nick Williams of two wins and two falls after a 60+ day break. Going like the winner on one of those falls and fell in the Coral Cup when booked for second (possibly went for home too soon). For Non Stop looks a cracking each way bet at current prices, I make him around a 9/1 shot.
Having said that, you’ve got good value with 11/2 Ben. Even with the questions I have about him, I’ll swap you for my Sizing Europe and China Rock bets!
Value Is Everything
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