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Simply brilliant Ginge – that`s added plenty of beer tokens to the account!!
Excellent Day`s racing at Kempton, and a really tidy profit to round it all off. Time for an increase in the points value i reckon.Just been catching up with some replays from earlier and a couple of really gutsy front running performances from Roi de Mee ( great price ) and Ballygarvey.
Saw Opening Batsman polish his field off with aplomb at Kempton during the afternoon, and yet another nice winner for Harry Fry.Off to Fontwell tomorrow for the National Spirit where Nicholls has half the field, and there`s some nice racing at Naas too.
Should be another interesting day.Thanks Softie,
Looks as though you guessed why I backed those selections today.
Roi Du Mee the obvious front runner with pace at shorter distances, up against two Grand National candidates who weren’t going to want hard races. So it was always likely Russell would get his own way and have speed left to compete at the finish. However, suspect both second and third have a better futures, Roi Du Mee possibly a little flattered. Backed PDB ante-post last year for the Grand National before injury ruled him out. Prince is related to both Micko (Welsh) and Rigadin (Classic) so should improve at extreme distances. Apart from one mistake jumped well and should run well at Aintree if getting there this time around. Seebass ran a good trial too.Again, apart from Ballygarvey there wasn’t another confirmed front runner in that race. Although both Doeslessthanme and Renard can race prominently. Always like to oppose the former as he looks temperamental. Latter I thought would be suited by today, am convinced Renard needs to have an unhindered view of the front. Halved in price. So I had the one/two, what did the forecast pay? My two first two throughout. Excellent ride from James Best, leading and jumping well at a slowish pace before kicking off the turn. May be hit by the handicapper though.
The Racing Plus was the opposite of the other two races, so much pace in the race. Shouldn’t have made Wyck Hill a main bet, one of my Grand National selections and one of many prominent runners. Ran a strange race, normally an exceptional jumper but hit the first and never recovered for AP.
All the other three I thought would be held up. Opening Batsman can lead too, but doesn’t need to. Has form over shorter, so was always going to have speed to cope with todays conditions… And as you say Softie, Fry is in sizzling form at the moment. Noel is the most under-rated jockey, in my top seven. Why the xxxx didn’t I make him a main bet?
Rolling Aces was an obvious one, proved worries about the ground unfounded. Duke Of Lucca made it a one/two/three. One sure to be held up and again, has speed more than stamina at the trip. Gave the outside to nobody, not that it made any difference. Ran to form and only beaten by two improving novices.
I thought DOL’s stablemate Quinz did well to hold on for as long as he did, doing best of the prominent runners.
You’re always telling me I should box my selections in exactas softie.
Enjoy Fontwell Softie, never used to miss this meeting, but the standard of the National Spirit isn’t what it used to be. Novice chase looks a decent race. Might be back in the morning with a bet in that one.
Value Is EverythingNovice chase looks a decent race. Might be back in the morning with a bet in that one.
Prices aren’t good enough now.
Value Is EverythingWhat price do you make Mikael D’hagenuet, Ginge?
I haven’t worked the race out to 100% Nathan, Sweeney Tunes and Charlie’s Vic stood out to me as value so it was not neccessary. But if you’re asking what price I would’ve taken Mikael D’, I’d have taken 4/5 in the morning. Though seldom back a drifter (the someone somewhere knows something syndrome), so if he now drifts to that price wouldn’t get involved. Mikael should win if he jumps well, there are two confirmed front runners in the field and probably needs to be ridden differently to his last win. So with possible jumping frailties and inconsistencey together with so many stable odds-on shots beaten lately… His chance is (imo) less than his best form (clear of the others) suggests. I’d say he stands around a 60% (fair 4/6), not 67%.
Charlie’s Vic isn’t the best of jumpers either, but (imo) his price is worth the risk. Unexposed and could improve significantly (needs to). Could pick up the pieces if the two front runners take each other on and drag the other prominent/track pacers with them.
If there’s no pace issues Sweeney Tunes is the reliable one, second best form and most likely to take advantage if the favourite doesn’t show his best.
Now watch Mickael jump brilliantly and scoot up!
Value Is EverythingAs Sean Boyce (good judge) said after the 3:45 Fontwell, Dark Lover didn’t stay and Meister Eckhart probably do better over further. Lost -63 points on that race…
But the Naas race went exactly as I’d thought it might. Getting another Mullins hot-pot beaten. Ruining his chance with a bad mistake. Win selection Sweetney Tunes backed at 5/1 won. Each way selection Charlie’s Vic coming through from last place to take second. +180 points.
So +117 on the day.
Total Profit +4929.7Had bets on 49 days this season so far, with only 16 of them being losing days.
Value Is EverythingSadly I’ve already backed this horse for the Supreme, but County looks the favourite as he’s well handicapped.
County Hurdle
21 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Court Minstrel* (min 13/1)Value Is EverythingMorning Ginge
First things first and just to rub your nose in it
Racing Post Chase:-Exacta £73.70
Trifecta £440.80
And no i never played them either
which may have to change!As for yesterday, went to an extremely cold Fontwell with Keith, who, as per usual, never stopped yakking all the way there, during, and all the way back, bless him, my ears still in recovery mode
Can`t disagree with that summing up of The National Spirit and Prospect Wells ran out the worthy winner, think it shocked the Fontwell crowd somewhat as these guys were all popping the hurdles with ease instead of the normal bunny hopping, kicking them them out of of the ground or clattering through them, that they are more used to down there.
Got to feel sorry for Mikael D., just can`t get his fencing right, all seems to be going well,gets himself into a nice rythmn, then he makes a right howler and can`t recover.
Another very good day on the betting front tho` – think you might have got the hang of this lark
Sent you a pm with a bit of info.for you to look at.
Afternoon Softie,
You’ll be able to get a rest from the ear bashing on Saturday. Might have to reconsider my aversion to exactas and trifectas!
I’ll probably be on here tonight to put a bet up for the 4:00 Leicester tomorrow.
Value Is EverythingMy outstanding ante-post bets:
Supreme Novices Hurdle Cheltenham
20 points @ 33/1 (B365) Court Minstrel* (min 22/1)
Also probably running in Supreme:
To Win Any Race At The Cheltenham Festival
26 points @ 14/1 (WH) Dodging Bullets*
27 points @ 7/4 (VC) My Tent Or Yours (min 13/8)
But doesn’t mean I am going to turn my nose up at 7/4 if I believe it is value. In fact, in my opinion with the Betfair performance MTOY has form good enough to be odds-on come the day.Arkle Trophy
38 points @ 10/1 (WH) Overturn* (min 7/1)
Champion Hurdle
42 points @ 5/1 (FD) Darlan* (min 9/2)
37 points @ 9/2 NRNB (Sky) My Tent Or Yours* (min 4/1)
National Hunt Chase
23 points @ 20/1 (Sky) Houblon Des Obeaux* (min 14/1)
RSA Chase
26 points @ 16/1 (WH) Hadrians Approach* (min 12/1)
Champion Chase
12 points each way @ 16/1 (SJ) Sanctuaire* (min 16/1)
Champion Bumper
24 points @ 12/1 (FD) Red Sherlock* (min 9/1)
Although won at Ascot, nowhere near as impressive as hoped. Looking a difficult ride. Possibly still very green and although at the time the same price as I got – connections have wisely decided to miss Cheltenham.Win At 2013 Cheltenham Festival
30 points @ 7/1 (VC) Fingal Bay* (min 13/2)
Ryanair Chase
19 points @ 33/1 (SJ) China Rock* (min 25/1)
21 points @ 10/1 (VC) Sizing Europe* (min 17/2)
Stayers (World) Hurdle
8 points @ 33/1 (betfair) Grands Crus (min 25/1)
47 points @ 9/2 (PP) Oscar Whisky* (min 4/1)
County Hurdle
21 points @ 16/1 (Sky) Court Minstrel* (min 13/1)
Albert Bartlett
40 points @ 7/1 (L) At Fishers Cross* (min 6/1)
2013 Cheltenham Gold Cup.
31 points @ 8/1 (FD) Long Run* (min 13/2)18 points @ 25/1 (betfair) First Lieutenent* (min 16/1)
11 points @ 33/1 (L) Cape Tribulation (min 22/1)
13 points @ 29/1 (Betfair) Katenko* (min 25/1)
2013 Grand National
18 points @ 33/1 (b365) Cappa Bleu*
24 points @ 20/1 (VC) Teaforthree* (min 16/1)
18 points @ 33/1 (FD) Wyck Hill* (min 20/1)
No aftertiming, every bet is on this thread, nothing left out, the good and the bad.Value Is EverythingI’ll probably be on here tonight to put a bet up for the 4:00 Leicester tomorrow.
Sorry, only one bookie up with odds at the moment. I’ve taken a price on betfair, but liquidity is so bad I can’t put it up as a bet. Will have another look in the morning.
Value Is Everything4:00 Leicester
saver first:
20 points @ 6/4 Howards Legacy (min 6/4)Value Is Everything4:00 Leicester
saver first:
20 points @ 6/4 Howards Legacy (min 6/4)and another saver:
5 points @ 9/1 (C) Top Smart (min 9/1)Value Is Everything4:00 Leicester
saver first:
20 points @ 6/4 Howards Legacy (min 6/4)and another saver:
5 points @ 9/1 (C) Top Smart (min 9/1)now the main bet:
25 points @ 8.8/1 Valoroso (min 7/1 (£39 available)Value Is EverythingHad hoped to make
Howards Legacy
the main bet, with so many hold up horses in the race it’s probable he’ll have the run of the race either out in front or prominent. So has a better chance than "form" suggests. However although even without that advantage I’d make him favourite, it seems bookmakers have basically allowed for it now. Wish I’d taken the 9/4 with Paddy Power when they first opened (only bookie betting on it at that point). Greedy!
Don’t particularly like backing last time out fallers, can sometimes be given a "get around first" ride. But again, the price makes it worth the risk (imo). Just hopeValoroso
‘s claimer rider doesn’t leave it too late. In the process of putting up an improved performance/winning at Wincanton before coming down at the last. Jumped reasonably well up to that point.
Top Smart
ran disappointingly last time, but has bounced back before after a poor showing. One of my local trainers Seamus Mullins is in good form, which is a good sighn for horses returning to form.
Philip Hobbs is in better form too,Volador
has a good chance if putting it all together over fences, but made mistakes so far in this line of work.
The Musical Guy
unusually for the stable doesn’t usually race prominently (held up or tracks pace). Unless there’s a change of tactics he’ll probably struggle for a turn of foot at the end of the race. Twister isn’t in great form either.
The other two don’t appear to have much chance.Watch you get on the right horse re Valoroso/Volador.
Value Is EverythingAfternoon Softie,
You’ll be able to get a rest from the ear bashing on Saturday. .Hmmm……are you giving him a lift there and back then Ginge?
Right, covered todays bets in exactas and trifectas, so bound to go boobs skywards
Afternoon Softie,
You’ll be able to get a rest from the ear bashing on Saturday. .Hmmm……are you giving him a lift there and back then Ginge?
It could be worse Softie, you could have Fareham Phil in the car as well!
There’s three or four possible betting races tomorrow, so be back tonight to put some bets up for Bangor, Lingfield and Wincanton.
Value Is Everything
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