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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/188/limerick/2024-10-20/878773
No market yet, and this one doesn’t always get an Antepost market, but no harm in looking
The Goffer was the main bet last year, but didn’t figure at the end, and never looked like really threatening. I’ll probably cover him sentimentally every time he’s a price this season, but unlikely to be main selection too often. I’m confident he’ll win a decent handicap this year. Figuring out what one though will be tricky.
On the face of it Janidil would have his work cut out, but I just like him, and I’ll definitely bet him if he goes. Just conscious though that he can keep the weight down for Horantzou D’Airy
I stupidly left out Lucid Dreams at Listowel, but definitely more interested this time, while Panda Boy is surely going to step up at some point.
I’d give respect to anything Eric McNamara runs in this, and of his entries, I’d just favour Embittered over Real Steel
Very pleased there’s not a market yet, as I’m also a big fan of Thecompanysergeant, while on his run in The Leopardstown Chase, this looks a decent target for Good Time Jonny, but I have him down as a big player for The Paddy Power Chase back at Leopardstown over Christmas
Last but not least is old favourite Battleoverdoyen. Up a few pounds for his win in The Blazers, but still looks reasonably treated on best form. He’s likely be the EW selection, as I can see him being underestimated
Very happy to see revisit this after Final Decs, but I’ll no doubt buckle should it be priced up.
These two would be the picks right now………
Battleoverdoyen
JanidilGround is currently good but rain forecast and we know what Limerick is like. With that in mind, Favouri de Champdou would interest me most, but he might not be much of a price. He’s the only Giggi entry and has course form of 11. The first of these was the 3m G2 novice hurdle comfortably beating Letsbeclearaboutit. The second was his last start novice chasing last season- after two very good runs against decent horses, then three poor ones in the Nevile Hotels, Ten Up and Irish National…but I think the first of these was just as the yard was about to plunge into a (presumably viral) slump which the horses took time to get over. His mark is 144 and I think he’s got a few lb in hand. I’d back him this minute if there were prices up.
I’m also interested in Grandero Bello, I think he’s a good horse on a nice mark but obviously comes with a health warning and I’d want to see him declared before putting money down (not that there’s a market up).
Some extra data for those with an interest in a race trends perspective.
Just early days phase #1 stuff that looks at pure race trends alone.
More work to be done [ by my mate Guy ] by race day.————————-
Munster National34 horses in the race
No market at the moment
Who want’s it most ?
Trainers runners
9 Gordon Elliott
4 Gavin Cromwell
4 E McNamara
2 W P MullinsWillie Mullins only has 2 entered
Expecting only 1 of those to run
But clearly has not prioritised thisThings will be clearer
When we know who runsRace statistics below
Sunday 2nd October
Limerick 4.15
Munster National
Handicap Chase
Age of Recent winners
7 9 7 7 7 7 8 6 7 6 7
7 8 8 8 6 7 8 8 7 10
10 8 9 8 8 7 6 7 7Horses aged 9 or more
Have a 1-82 record since 2007The only 9yo winner (2022)
Was unusually lightly raced28 of the last 30 winners
Were under 10 years oldThe 10yo winners were lucky
One won in a really tiny field
One when half of his rivals
Were disqualified in the racePast winners
Had the following chase runs19 8 5 6 9 10 6 7 4
7 13 4 3 12 5 5 5Snapshot of past winners
2023 – 7 Year old with 19 Chases
2022 – 9 Year old with 5 Chases
2021 – 7 Year old with 5 Chases
2020 – 7 Year old with 6 Chases
2019 – 7 Year old with 9 Chases
2018 – 7 Year old with 10 Chases
2017 – 8 Year old with 6 Chases
2016 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2015 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2014 – 6 Year old with 7 Chases
2013 – 7 Year old with 13 Chases
2012 – 7 Year old with 4 Chases
2011 – 8 Year old with 3 Chases
2010 – 8 Year old with 12 Chases
2009 – 8 Year old with 5 Chases
2008 – 6 Year old with 5 Chases
2007 – 7 Year old with 5 ChasesOnly 1 past winner
Had under 4 Chase runsThat was 8yo Muirhead in 2011
Who had Grade 1 form to his name
He had 3 prep runs before winningHorses with 14 + Chase runs
Won this race in 2006 and 2023
They won in small fields of 11-12
They both had 2 + runs that year
Both came from the Kerry NationalHorses from Kerry’s National
Won this twice 2014-2023
They have a 2-51 recordHorses aged 8 or more
From the Kerry National
Have a 0-29 record so farHorses from Kerry’s National
Who finished the race last time
Have a 1-36 record
That winner had 4 prep runs
Those with 1-2 prep runs
Have a 0-22 record in thisPast winners
Had the following days absences32 252 316 10 35 72 224 22 74 25
64 37 17 25 132 172 170 18Horses absent over 4 months
Won this race 6 times recently
They had 8 5 6 5 5 6 Chase runsNone with more than 8 chases
Won this with a long absence
Those that tried it were 0-26Horses with 1 run this season
Running within the last 34 days
Have a worrying 0-28 recordMost winners had 4-15 hurdle runs
All had fewer than 16 hurdle racesNo horse has won this race
With more than 35 lifetime runsAlmost every past winner
Had 13-34 Lifetime startsThe 6-year old winners of this
Both had 7 previous chase runsHorses rated 145 or more
Have a 0-16 record so farNo horse aged 8 or more
Won with 11st 5lbs or more (0-12)——————-
Best Wishes
MickNot having a bet but Good Thyme Johnny would be the one for me (16s currently) . Hes a reserve so likely won’t get in though. Rating of 128 is very appealing.
He is also entered in the durham national on the same day at sedgefiled – UK mark 132.
I imagine with this horses previous liking for cheltenham they will be going for the novice handicap chase at the fesitval so will need a win or 2 to get into one of those handicaps.
On the favourite , he was doing all his best work at the last time , always playee old favourite Battleoverdoyen 7 places and also Embittered 7 places , not convinced yet he truly stays 3m but if he is going to then it’ll be on good ground
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
Chemical Energy is my more sensible selection at 14-1, but at 33-1 I’ll have Another Choice ew, who is actually a bigger fancy
Another vote for Another Choice. One of the least exposed runners in the race and I’m sure the trip will suit.
I went for two less exposed horses:
Stuzzikini EW at 28s and the above mentioned Another Choice EW at 25s.I’ve backed Stuzzikini as I like horses with course form. Love this race! Will probably add Another Choice, too.
Some late N/Rs now. Some early bets will cop a 35p in £ deduction
List:
Janidil
Favori De C
Perceval L
Yeah Man
Grandero Belo
Good Time Jonny
Jumping JetInitially kicking myself for not getting the big prices on Battleoverdoyen, with that R4 attached. He’s main one now at 28’s, hopefully without another R4 if any more drop out
I’ll leave Thecompanysargeant now, as much as I really like him, and have a “just in case” bet on The Goffer.
Battleoverdoyen 28’s EW
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