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Supreme Novices Hurdle Cheltenham
20 points @ 33/1 (B365) Court Minstrel* (min 22/1)
Also probably running in Supreme:
To Win Any Race At The Cheltenham Festival
26 points @ 14/1 (WH) Dodging Bullets*Saver:
27 points @ 7/4 (VC) My Tent Or Yours (min 13/8)Value Is EverythingBe nice to see Gordie list his out too, buy they`ll be cloaked in secrecy no doubt
You might think that Softie, I couldn’t possibly comment.
If you 2 care to go back through my posts in "A Kings Ransom" you will see every Horse I have backed for Cheltenham,you will have to go back well into last year mind,of course you wont see anything I’ve backed on the machine but apart from my ‘First Lieutenant’ bets for the Ryanair everything else is well documented!
Now I’m not one to be easily shocked but there’s a fair few of your Ante-Post selections that are the same as mine Ginge,Cape Tribulation
,
Houblon des Obeaux
,
Oscar whiskey
,
At fishers Cross
,
Hadrians approach
,
First Lieutenant
,Poor
Darlan
and now I see you have also suggested to your army of followers who believe "Value is everything" that taking 7/4 about
My Tent or yours
is a good idea!This might surprise you but when it comes to Ante-Post betting the first place people view is my thread and they will have read that at 20/1 I was Bullish about him winning the ‘Supreme’ even though he’d just got beat,since then I’ve put him up at all prices down thats 16/1, 14/1,12/1 and even 10/1 as he was still Value then.Of course these are all High st prices and I’ve got
even bigger on the machine so much so that whilst you are backing him I’ve actually done the sensible thing and laid him at the same price you are preaching is Value,only enough to protect my stake mind,I could lay him now for the next week at 7/4,15/8 and 2/1 and clear a £2k profit though. Its not often I get to do that prior to the race itself as the majority of the time I Lay in running but on this Occassion I am the Cat who got the Cream,the question is will I do it?? There’s some serious opposition in this years race!…and now I see you have also suggested to your army of followers who believe "Value is everything" that taking 7/4 about
My Tent or yours
is a good idea!This might surprise you but when it comes to Ante-Post betting the first place people view is my thread and they will have read that at 20/1 I was Bullish about him winning the ‘Supreme’ even though he’d just got beat,since then I’ve put him up at all prices down thats 16/1, 14/1,12/1 and even 10/1 as he was still Value then.Of course these are all High st prices and I’ve got even bigger on the machine so much so that whilst you are backing him I’ve actually done the sensible thing and laid him at the same price you are preaching is Value,only enough to protect my stake mind,I could lay him now for the next week at 7/4,15/8 and 2/1 and clear a £2k profit though. Its not often I get to do that prior to the race itself as the majority of the time I Lay in running but on this Occassion I am the Cat who got the Cream,the question is will I do it?? There’s some serious opposition in this years race!
If a punter takes a price on the outcome of 4 races, needing to put up not just a "good result" but a particular type of "good result that enables him to run in one particular race at the end of that sequence. ie If the standard isn’t good enough – no run, thought well handicapped it could end up in the County (wrong race), if not quite fast enough the Neptune (wrong race), or too good and it’s the Champion (wrong race)… But he’s lucky enough for the horse to come through those first three races without injury and ends up in the right race…
Another punter just takes a price on him winning the last of the four races when the target is known… And with the proviso that if a non-runner he is allowed a free bet to the same stake. Who’s to say who’s got the better value (at the time of placing the bet)? Of course 20/1 is a good price now Gord, but if I took 20/1 now that there’d be snow on my doorstep at 1:00pm on Christmas Day – you can’t judge the "value" of that bet on Christmas Eve after looking at the weather forecast. Snow may or may not be forecast, but at the time of placing the bet – "value" is an opinion.Of course if you were consistent in getting 20/1 winners, that would be different, we could say with some certainty you’ve got excellent value Gordy Boy. But fact is, just lately whenever you come up with a list of big priced winners – they’ve been from so long ago. Hopefully MTOY will be the start of a Gordy comeback.
Something else all ante-post punters need to bear in mind is
(as I told you before Gordy Boy): If one punter backs 7 horses all @ 20/1 ante-post and only one of those turns up… Another punter backs that same runner @ 2/1 on the day. Both have the same value.eg Two punters are given
7
points to bet with
how they see fit
.
One punter has
seven individual
1 point ante-post bets all @ 20/1. Only one actually makes it to the course and
returns 21 points
of his
original 7
points outlay.
One punter does not bet ante-post and just has the
one bet
on the day, one 7 point bet @ 2/1,
returning 21 points
for his
original 7
point outlay.
Both punters have exactly the same
value
.
When backing ante-post it is easy for a punter to believe he gets much better value than everyone else just because he’s got one or two massive prices. Where as in fact an ante-post punter (you, me or anyone Gordy Boy)
needs
a big price now and again to offset some of the horses that
did not make it to the races
they were backed for.
You’ve got a great individual price with 20/1 MOTY Gordy Boy, backing it when (
at the time
) there was a good chance he’d end up in another race – paid off for you
this
time…
Hopefully it’ll win and
make up for some of those tens
of ante-post bets on your thread that have
not
made it to the racecourse.
Getting back to the original 20/1 MTOY: You backed it
before
the improvement and
before
it was known which race he’d end up in. Therefore, by backing MTOY @ 20/1 at that time – you were taking
significant
risks. At that time MTOY did not have anything like the chance it is now. It’s one bet that has paid off for you Gordy Boy.
Well done!
In hindsight, it’s a shame you wasted some of that 20/1 value by backing him for the Champion too.
As for the 7/4 it is now… You keep going on about how you think "it’ll win". Well if you think "it’ll win" then you must believe it has a better than 50% chance of winning. To be a "good bet" @ 7/4 the horse only needs to be thought of as better than
36% chance of winning
. I
agree
with you Gordy Boy, MTOY does (imo) have a
better than 50%
(fair Evens) chance of winning, so therefore is
still
good value @ 7/4.
I agree with you Gordy Boy, this year’s Supreme looks a good renewal. However, I can not see
any other
runner capable of putting up a performance
significantly
better than an
average Supreme winner
. Where as MTOY
only
needs to produce the form of his
Betfair Hurdle
to be a
very easy
winner of an
average Supreme
… And may yet
improve
from Newbury too.
If you’re laying MTOY back, then I suggest you wait until nearer the time. He’ll start more like Evens than 7/4. My MTOY bet is only a saver, I had to get in before the price shortened further.
It bears repeating, you’ve got a cracking price in MTOY Gordy Boy, hope it wins for you.
Value Is EverythingBe nice to see Gordie list his out too, buy they`ll be cloaked in secrecy no doubt
You might think that Softie, I couldn’t possibly comment.
If you 2 care to go back through my posts in "A Kings Ransom" you will see every Horse I have backed for Cheltenham,you will have to go back well into last year mind,of course you wont see anything I’ve backed on the machine but apart from my ‘First Lieutenant’ bets for the Ryanair everything else is well documented!
Don’t you know what horses you’ve backed for Cheltenham ante-post that are not running Gordy Boy? What about going through all those non-running losers before Cheltenham begins? So that your followers know how much the non-runners cost.
Am sure you know Gordy Boy, getting a runner is half the struggle with ante-post betting. Or are you going to tell half-truths about only the big prices you’ve still got? My list of horses above are all of my ante-post bets for Cheltenham and Aintree. Good and bad.Value Is EverythingNow I’m not one to be easily shocked but there’s a fair few of your Ante-Post selections that are the same as mine Ginge,
Cape Tribulation
,
Houblon des Obeaux
,
Oscar whiskey
,
At fishers Cross
,
Hadrians approach
,
First Lieutenant
,Poor
Darlan
Don’t see why you’re shocked Gordy Boy, some of the above you were first to mention, some I mentioned first. No doubt we both independantly came up with them. Some time ago I told you thought you’d have a good Cheltenham.
Always a good sign when we both agree Gordy Boy.
Value Is Everythingeg Two punters are given 7 points to bet with how they see fit.
One punter has seven individual 1 point ante-post bets all @ 20/1. Only one actually makes it to the course and returns 21 points of his original 7 points outlay.
One punter does not bet ante-post and just has the one bet on the day, one 7 point bet @ 2/1, returning 21 points for his original 7 point outlay.
Both punters have exactly the same value.
Now this is interesting ginge!
Both punters have the same value? What is your definition of value here?
Whats with the ‘Gordy Boy’ Ginge? You know its ‘softie’ who calls me that…………You confusing yourself aswell as me now?
eg Two punters are given 7 points to bet with how they see fit.
One punter has seven individual 1 point ante-post bets all @ 20/1. Only one actually makes it to the course and returns 21 points of his original 7 points outlay.
One punter does not bet ante-post and just has the one bet on the day, one 7 point bet @ 2/1, returning 21 points for his original 7 point outlay.
Both punters have exactly the same value.
Now this is interesting ginge!
Both punters have the same value? What is your definition of value here?
Surely one punters maximum possible return is £21 and the other punters is £147 at the time the bets were struck?
Ginge you continuoulsy go on about value – and rightly so – but the actual result has no bearing on whether the bet was value.
If i back a horse at 33/1 but believe the horse has a 20% chance of winning, i got massive value. If the horse wins i got massive value, if it loses i got massive value.
The 2/1 shot you backed for your full 7 points might only have a had a 10% chance of winning. The actual result is no reflection of value.
I can’t help but feel you have let your self down with this!
Whats with the ‘Gordy Boy’ Ginge? You know its ‘softie’ who calls me that…………You confusing yourself aswell as me now?
Trouble is Gordy Boy, I can’t call you TAPK any more. It no longer fits your profile. Alternative could be to shorten it to three letters but thought Gordy Boy suits well.
Value Is Everythingeg Two punters are given 7 points to bet with how they see fit.
One punter has seven individual 1 point ante-post bets all @ 20/1. Only one actually makes it to the course and returns 21 points of his original 7 points outlay.
One punter does not bet ante-post and just has the one bet on the day, one 7 point bet @ 2/1, returning 21 points for his original 7 point outlay.
Both punters have exactly the same value.
Now this is interesting ginge!
Both punters have the same value? What is your definition of value here?
Eliwallach,
It’s an example to try and illustrate thatIF
a punter is not careful in considering whether each horse is a likely runner – he/she may end up with the same (or worse) value as the day of race punter.
If a punter backs 7 horses all @ 20/1 then
the combined price he’s taking
is 2/1.
20/1 = 4.7619%
7 x 4.7619 = 33.3333
33.3333% = 2/1So IF the ante-post punter loses too many bets without getting a run for his money – only 1 20/1 horse turns up for the race (after betting a combined total of 7 points) and ends up returning 21 points. Same amount as the day of race 2/1 punter who’s not squandered money ante-post, putting all his 7 points on and returning 21 points.
It also illustrates that if a punter backs a hell of a lot of 20/1+ shots – he’s very likely to get one or two winners now and again.
I am not against ante-post betting at all, but it is neccessary to look at the
over all picture
and
not one off bets
. It is very easy for Ante-post punters to believe they get better value than day of race punters. But once losing non-runners are taken in to account – that is not always the case.
Of course any excellent individual price is worth congratulating, but the thing that matters is over all profit. If the punter’s ante-post winners (even big winners) don’t pay for the ante-post losers – it’s no good.
Value Is EverythingGinge you continuoulsy go on about value – and rightly so – but the actual result has no bearing on whether the bet was value.
If i back a horse at 33/1 but believe the horse has a 20% chance of winning, i got massive value. If the horse wins i got massive value, if it loses i got massive value.
The 2/1 shot you backed for your full 7 points might only have a had a 10% chance of winning. The actual result is no reflection of value.
Of course you are right in what you say Eliwallach, Value is in the eye of the beholder, at least until a lot of bets have passed. In time; whether a punter has got "value" enough times can be seen in over all profit (unless that profit is made by one or two comparitively massive bets when luck could have something to do with it).
However, in this example I was talking about the
price taken
, nothing else. There were a few points I wanted to make without going over the whole percentage theory once again. Possibly quilty of over-simplifying, but people don’t want to hear it all again just to illustrate minor points.
Value Is Everything2:55 Newcastle
22 points @ 12/1 (L) Big Occasion* (min 11/1)17 points @ 25/1 (L) Netminder* (min 18/1)
Value Is Everything2:55 Newcastle
22 points @ 12/1 (L) Big Occasion* (min 11/1)17 points @ 25/1 (L) Netminder* (min 18/1)
24 points @ 7/1 (FD) Tarquinius* (min 13/2)
saver:
14 points @ 9/2 (SJ) Chac Du Cadran (min 9/2)Value Is Everything
Am sure you know Gordy Boy, getting a runner is half the struggle with ante-post betting. Or are you going to tell half-truths about only the big prices you’ve still got? My list of horses above are all of my ante-post bets for Cheltenham and Aintree. Good and bad.
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